Ethan Chorin

In my latest column, I discuss the intensifying conflict in the Middle East and suggest that Iran's support for HAMAS and its recent missile attack on Israel are part of its campaign to derail the peace negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. https://lnkd.in/ePaCBNYH

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The Gaza war, with its potential for regional escalation, is just one (albeit major) concern in a region prone to instability, insecurity, and unpredictability. This paper puts the evolving crisis and nuclear proliferation concerns in the Middle East into global context, alongside other U.S. foreign and domestic policy priorities, such as Russia’s war in Ukraine, competition with China, and the U.S. economy. The paper highlights how the United States and its allies have adapted and established new partnerships. Regarding the U.S. economy, the paper draws attention to how the landmark U.S. Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, including $370 billion in tax credits for the renewable energy industry, could represent both an opportunity to work with developing states on rare earth materials but could also become another source of tension with China over trade policy. The paper concludes that the risks associated with instability in the multilateral political and trading system, on which great power and regional relations pivot, are as urgent to resolve as the short-term imperatives of regional crises. https://lnkd.in/dr35Q429

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With presidential elections looming in both Iran and the U.S., a shift toward increased pressure, signaled by an IAEA censure, could have serious repercussions. This move might lead to Iran’s case being referred to the U.N. Security Council or prompt the E3 states to “snap back” U.N. sanctions on Iran. Such developments would be highly counterproductive, dramatically escalating tensions and reducing the chances for diplomatic resolution. https://lnkd.in/e9BYGy7m

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“Bearing witness through journalism”. That’s the title of IMS’ newly released annual report https://lnkd.in/dBhtcuvB. Looking back at 2023, that title could not be more fitting. Throughout the year, wars raged in Gaza, Ukraine, Syria and Sudan – just to name a few – while global warming, inequality and online disinformation continued to undermine the safety and prosperity of people across all continents. While there was and still is more than enough to worry about, our 2023 annual report highlights how good journalism can make a real difference in peoples' lives. Throughout the year, journalists were on the ground reporting, uncovering injustices and corruption and helping their audiences to tell facts from fiction, equipping them to make choices and demands based on accurate information. Hyper-local media in Sub-Saharan Africa are a compelling case in point. Consider, for example, how local radio stations in the Sahel region are broadcasting programmes that help people develop vegetable gardens, rotate crops, select seeds, and restore forests. Or how accurate and timely information about where to find food, shelter and protection helps save lives during humanitarian emergencies, such as the earthquake that devastated large swathes of southern Türkiye and Northen Syria in early 2023. Or how, in the face of a regime as hostile to women as the Taliban, female journalists in Afghanistan continue to find ways to pursue their trade. As one of them says in the introductory video I’m posting here: “I want to make my voice heard, now more than ever”. As the interlinked ills of war, global warming, inequality and greed keep tugging at the rug we’re all standing on, supporting and empowering good journalism is as important as ever. That, in a word, is IMS’ mission. I invite you to browse the report’s mix of in-depth analyses and compelling case stories from across the world, each of them radiating the courage, persistence and innovative spirit our partners exhibit day in and day out as they work to hold power to account and shed light on the things that matter in people’s lives. On a final note, I’d like to extend a special word of appreciation to our main institutional donors, Sida; Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark; Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs; and European Union as well as to The Danish Union of Journalists; Norsk Journalistlag; Ford Foundation, Open Society Foundations; Journalismfund Europe; UNESCO; European Endowment for Democracy (EED); Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation; Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office; and Agence Française de Développement. Thank you for making our work possible! 

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Text of my small contribution to the QUincy Institute Symposium on Nato's future Anne Kraatz The best development for NATO that one should wish for, I believe (even if the odds against its happening appear daunting at present), is that it should return to its fundamentals: Prevent war, in accordance to its obligation not just to defend all the signatories of the treaty but also to commit itself, in the words of the treaty, “not to enter into any international commitments that conflicted with the treaty” and to adhere “to the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations.”  The U.N. Charter states, as its first objective, “to maintain international peace and security” and “uphold international law.” In other words, in a more perfect world, NATO should work toward peace and not toward managing conflicts solely through military means in the future.  Unfortunately, how NATO probably will develop and change is a very different matter. In his new strategic concept presented at the Madrid Summit in June 2022, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg set out five points for the development of NATO. Only one of these, “taking a global outlook,” was really “new.” This “global outlook” involves extending the treaty’s mandate exponentially. NATO would develop into a supranational organism with tentacles reaching into many corners of the world, if not all.  On the other hand, a new generation of populist politicians in the United States and Europe will probably not want to take such a “global outlook” but will retreat, if trends are anything to go by, to their own shores in the perhaps-mistaken idea that conflicts here and there will not affect them directly.  However, the same conflicts ongoing now might already have escalated to the extent that, even a generation ahead, their consequences will instead produce a general desire to project strength, whatever the human consequences. Thus, European nations will have rearmed and retrained their military and will possibly no longer accept the sole leadership of the U.S. in NATO affairs. It will then take a very astute politician to rein in everyone’s power instincts: Failing the presence of such a man or woman, NATO could actually break apart amidst exacerbated rivalries, including economic ones, and conflicting nationalist postures and interests. Anne Kraatz is a Non-Resident Fellow at the Quincy Institute. She was a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Open Diplomacy in Paris For the full text of the other contributors to the Symposium: https://lnkd.in/g7UGKH7Q

This is interesting! If you want to know more about the war in Gaza or the Israeli-Palestinian conflict - listen to this podcast. https://lnkd.in/dgmck6EQ

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Introducing the Taliban Leadership Tracker New database maps nearly 1,200 leaders and civilian and military appointees Since seizing control of Afghanistan in August 2021, the Taliban has appointed thousands of individuals to various political, military, administrative, and judicial positions across the country, occupying crucial roles as decision-makers, influencers, local enforcers, and implementers who help shape the Taliban government policies and actions. Yet, little is known about them. MEI’s Taliban Leadership Tracker is a comprehensive repository and analysis platform consolidating information on key figures and individuals wielding influence throughout the Taliban government. https://lnkd.in/e6yGbUAg

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We see "U.S. complicity not only in facilitating and enabling these violations, but in proactive steps taken by the Biden Administration and other U.S. officials to shield Israel from accountability, whether within the U.S. legal system, or through posing explicit threats to the U.S. relationship with South Africa, or the broader international rule of law represented by the International Criminal Court. "One wonders whether if a sovereign court in Europe was to commence proceedings against Israeli officials whether the United States would not even be willing to tear apart the transatlantic alliance in order to shield Benjamin Netanyahu." As an invasion of Rafah commences, and a report from the Biden Administration to Congress comes due, I answered questions from World Geostrategic Insights (link below) on how America's catastrophic foreign policy towards Israel came to be, and what it means for the world. As I explained, rather than capitalizing on its hegemonic moment to build a lasting and binding system of international justice, America has emerged as a 'status quo' power whose foreign policy lacks a moral mooring other than its desire to stay on top. "As a result, what we see now is an America stripped of its credibility in the region and in global contexts as well," I told WGI, and "[t]his loss of credibility, combined with the awful policies that it emerges from, ultimately contribute to instability by creating mutual dependencies between the U.S. and autocrats based on a shared interest in the suppression of popular opinion, deepening the reputational harm, creating fundamentally brittle relationships, and contributing to continued regional instability. I see this as a tragedy for America - and for the world, because none of the other options currently being promoted by rising powers are in any way better. WGI's last question was, essentially, 'whose fault is all this?' As I explained based on my own experience in government, various lobbies play a role, but "[t]he disaster we see today in the Middle East... may be a product of the warped Washington system in which politics and money often outweigh good policy, but is ultimately a responsibility of the American government, and its leaders. As the sign on President Truman’s desk famously said, “the buck stops here.” You can read the whole interview, which also touches on the viability of the two-state solution, and Israel's "response" to October 7th, online here:

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Honored to give the Key Note address today at the regional conference on “Addressing the Prevailing Digital Information Disorder: Countering the Use of the Internet by Terrorists & Violent Exteemists” hosted by the OSCE & Government Mongolia, and share perspectives from Global Internet Forum to Counter Terrorism (GIFCT), including on the importance of integrating human rights into industry efforts to address terrorist content online, and support for Global Network on Extremism & Technology (GNET). Important discussions today among government, civil society, industry & multilateral actors on understanding risks and opportunities in the digital space, connections between offline and online dynamics, and lessons learned and proposed solutions. Always great to hear and engage with rich expertise and diverse perspectives, and ensure we remain apprised of evolving dynamics that shape and inform the content we see online. #terrorism #counterterrorism #tech #online #humanrights #VERLT #publicprivatepartnerships #AI #emergingtechnologies #multistakeholdersolutions

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Attacks between #Iran and #Israel highlight the latest edition (Apr 19) of the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy Weekly Forecast Monitor, which had previously warned of a high risk of military escalation between the two countries  https://lnkd.in/eVBeB-Dh

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Is it too early to say, "told you so Reuters and BBC News?" I believe that the Israel's IDF deserves an apology from all news media loudly and dishonestly broadcasting Hamas propaganda with little or no context. I simply point out Reuters and the BBC because I used to recommend them to others. I know longer read either and may, never again. I guess that the United Nations, after months of honest criticism, has reconsidered much of their previous behavior. Don't get me wrong, no civilian casualties are the optimum. This is not possible on any level in the environment that the IDF operating in, within Gaza. While like most, I disagreed with too much use of the 2,000 lb. bombs/ bunker busters, by all global standards, the majority of IDF operations have been well-within the bounds of international law. Bunker busters are the perfect, air delivered weapon for adversaries buried stories underground in tunnels. This combined with Hamas' insistence on keeping innocent Palestinians in place as human shields and Bibi's intent to prosecute this war that helps his far right administration's base, have been the perfect storm of tragedy in Gaza. On the other hand, Putin's desperation before the GOP cut off support to Ukraine and that drove him to seek diversions from his disaster in Ukraine, like Israel, central Africa, Serbia and Armenia, is partly to blame as well. Iran, the "hitman" for Putin in Gaza, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, did all possible to enable Hamas to butcher Israelis on Oct. 7th. They still do.

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"In the last installment of our interview series with Palau President Surangel Whipps Jr., KPRG's Naina Rao delves into how China’s growing influence in the region affects the consensus shared between Pacific Island countries. President Whipps also discussed the challenge of balancing traditional values with increasing modernity. But first, what will the renewed Compact funding be used for? And where will it go?"

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Russian archaeologists uncover ancient settlement close to the Iraq-Iran border Russian archaeologists have conducted their first fieldwork in Iraq’s Maysan Province after several decades, in a sign of growing cooperation between Baghdad and Moscow. Iraq, Syria and Iran are often referred to as the cradle of civilisation and are among the richest archaeological regions in the world. Their landscape has layers of ancient history, home to the remnants of Mesopotamian, Persian, Sumerian, Akkadian, Babylonian and Assyrian civilisations. Meanwhile, the area between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers saw the birth of writing, the discovery of the wheel and some of the earliest known cities and empires... ...Most uncovered deposits date back to the second half of the 6th millennium BCE. Also, remains of structures made from river stone, attributed by experts to the Old Babylonian period, were also excavated by the joint task force... #Zagros #OldBabylonian #CradleOfCivilization https://lnkd.in/eiKbgAV5

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The United States and Europe can and should facilitate Central Asian regional integration and development,сomposed Dr. Azeem Ibrahim OBE ,Senior Director at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington DC in his article The fall of the Soviet Union granted the five Central Asian States independence a little over thirty years ago. The region was largely ignored by the world’s great powers, even though its southern neighbor, Afghanistan, was the theatre of NATO’s twenty-year war. However, geopolitics and geoeconomics have changed since then. The five countries have come of age, both domestically and regionally, working together to unleash the region’s potential as a key mineral and infrastructural hub for energy security and global trade. The region has close historical ties to Russia and is positioned along China’s Belt and Road. Still, it also offers significant opportunities for U.S. and European companies to access the key precious metals for the energy transition. Consequently, the region has seen a steep change in engagements, with frequent gatherings of heads of state, visits by foreign ministers, and an unprecedented number of bilateral agreements signed, vying for access to this new prime geopolitical and economic real estate. But it was the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 that caused a foreign policy pivot in Western capitals to begin in earnest. This regional community should include, in the long term, the two final “Stans,” Afghanistan and Pakistan, which would open up routes for a “southern corridor” to a deep warm-water port in the Arabian Sea, integrating the landlocked nations of the continent’s center within the global maritime economy. It would also offer Afghanistan a proper future, with economic and political integration with its neighbors. That is the only way to ensure that Afghanistan doesn’t become an exporter of terrorism again. Policymakers in Washington, London, and Brussels must therefore leverage their expertise and help the seven “Stans” come together more formally with the establishment of a regional “S7 Union,” backed by a S7 Infrastructure and Investment Bank and S7 Critical Minerals Authority. A stronger multilateral organization would facilitate dialogue and turn the region into a legally and regulatorily independent bloc, able to represent its own interests more effectively. Read: https://lnkd.in/dmiC7zcw

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