Diego Ochoa

This is the best summary / decision tree for #directindexing, I've ever seen. One use case that's missing though, is the correction for concentrated positions, e.g. in the case of stock options of people working for large corporates. Another one is faith-based investing, since most ESG funds are not sufficiently covering that topic - Taber Johnson and Reid J. Steadman can tell you more!

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With #nvidia leading the charge, the SOX index sits at an all time high. A remarkable move from both a single stock and index level. As is always the case as assets move aggressively higher we are constantly asked 'is this the top?' The honest answer is who knows, but as ever there are clues from the past. Below is the monthly price change in the SOX Index from 1990-2024. In the period between 1995-2000 there were regular monthly swings of +20% to -20%. Thus far this cycle has not been as volatile (18% biggest gain, -16.5% biggest loss) but it might be fair to argue that sector is bigger and more developed now so maybe we should expect smaller swings. As the sector peaked in 2000 we saw multiple consecutive months of >10% gains (5 in row from September 1999). Thus far we haven't seen this yet. The biggest clue of all that the end was nigh was a 50% plus gain in the month that marked the peak. This type of 'exhaustion' price action is exactly the clues one should be looking for as this cycle develops. The one thing we are very confident on is that volatilty in the group will stay high. Implied vols across the group are already confirming this and those in the group need to be cogizant of both the opportunity that lies ahead and the drawdown risk as the cycle evolves. if you would like to see more of what we do please reach out to me at aiden@bespokecharts.com #technicalanalysis #macro #nvidia #semiconductors

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The WSJ's recent survey of economists reveals significant adjustments in economic forecasts that reflect a more nuanced and potentially concerning outlook. The survey indicates a rise in the probability of a recession in the next 12 months from a mere 21% in early 2021 to a peak of 63%, with a recent dip to 29% in the April survey, suggesting a volatile economic sentiment. Notably, this shift comes against the backdrop of Federal Reserve rate increases, a classic move to curb inflation but with the known side effect of potentially dampening economic growth. Interestingly, despite the aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed, the economy has outperformed expectations, attributed to robust government spending, increased immigration, and unwavering consumer demand. However, the labor market has presented a double edged sword; while job gains have surpassed forecasts, likely buoyed by immigration, this boom has nearly depleted the pool of available workers, signaling an impending slowdown. The forecasts for US quarterly GDP growth reflect this tension, anticipating a cooling period in the immediate future but a more positive outlook for 2024 compared to previous predictions. Inflation concerns remain persistent, with economists modestly raising their forecasts for 2024, underscoring the difficulty of achieving the Fed's 2% target. This inflationary pressure, coupled with growth that has yet to significantly slow down, has led economists to adjust their interest rate forecasts upwards once again, deviating from the previously anticipated rate cuts. In this climate, markets are navigating a tightrope walk between anticipating continued economic resilience and preparing for a possible slowdown. The elevated probability of a recession, even though recently reduced, coupled with higher inflation forecasts and the prospect of persistent interest rate hikes, are likely to contribute to increased market volatility. #Economy #Recession #Interestrates #Fed #Inflation source: wsj

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Schonfeld is still trying to secure the 3 billion in Investments, as reported by Bloomberg, they are actively engaged in discussions with both existing and potential investors. While they haven't finalized a drawdown facility partnership yet, they are committed to the pursuit, with discussions spanning from the fourth quarter of last year into the first quarter of this year. Last year, Schonfeld opted out of a potential partnership with Millennium, confident in securing necessary capital through alternative means such as a proposed drawdown fund, which offers flexibility and strategic advantages. Despite market fluctuations, its performance remains commendable, with its flagship Strategic Partners fund outperforming many peers. Looking ahead, the firm is focused on optimizing its asset range and transitioning towards a more stable investor base, underscored by a commitment to retaining assets for a three-year period. #SchonfeldStrategicAdvisors #Investment #Finance #Resilience #Innovation

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📊 Finimize Weekly Chartpack 🏦 Forget Interest Rates: Firms Are Still Finding It Easy To Raise Cash The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions index, which measures how easy it is for companies to raise cash, has fallen to its lowest level since November 2021. Put differently, Corporate America is finding it easier to secure financing and keep economic growth going, despite elevated interest rates. And that’s thanks to surging share prices and tightening credit spreads. 🎸 Heavy Metal Rally: Why Uranium And Its Miners Could Rock On It’s a new heavy metal era: uranium and its miners have been hitting new highs, with power demand expected to reach eardrum-smashing decibels. With the rise in power-hungry AI, investors have become increasingly focused on the need for clean energy sources that can help fill the growing demand. That’s putting uranium front and center, because of its ability to reliably produce energy, 24/7, with zero emissions. It’s why the Global X Uranium ETF is at ten-year highs, up 19% so far this year. 📈 Copper Hits A New High, With Traders Betting On Shortfalls Copper prices hit a new all-time high on Monday, extending a months-long rally driven by financial investors who’ve piled into the market in anticipation of deepening supply shortages. The jump was further fueled by a short squeeze that triggered a global rush to secure the metal. But even with all the excitement, some traders are arguing that copper is starting to look like a crowded trade, where everyone – commodity trading houses, hedge funds, Wall Street, mining executives – is betting in the same direction. 📉 The Bill Gross Problem: What To Do If You Don’t Like 10-Year Treasuries Anymore US Treasuries aren't exactly having the time of their lives. Even Bill Gross, the “bond king” himself, is dissing them. You almost can’t blame him: the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund (which invests in all sorts of Treasuries) has produced a negative 0.1% total return over the past five years and the outlook doesn't suggest that's going to improve. However, that could be a good thing for a new crop of ETFs: fixed-maturity bond ETFs or “target maturity bond ETFs”. They let investors zero in on a fixed return and specific payout date. 🛡️ Goldman Sachs’ Top Trades To Hedge A Stock Market Drop Buying put options on unprofitable tech stocks with shaky fundamentals could be an attractive way to protect your portfolio from a potential pullback in the stock market caused by fears of higher interest rates or inflation. By analyzing stocks' implied volatility – a measure of expected price movements – and skew, which reflects market sentiment about potential corrections, Goldman Sachs identified several stocks where put options are currently priced attractively. With significant events like upcoming FOMC meetings, electoral activities, and tech earnings reports over the next three months, these options offer a strategic opportunity to manage risk effectively. >Finimize

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Finance titans BlackRock and Citadel Securities are teaming up with investors to raise $120 million to open the Texas Stock Exchange in Dallas. The group still has some regulatory hurdles to clear before opening, but it plans to start listing stocks for sale as early as 2026. Despite the dominance of NYSE and Nasdaq, TXSE seeks to provide stable listing standards and predictable costs, addressing regulatory and compliance requirements. The involvement of BlackRock and Citadel could enhance liquidity and market efficiency. The Texas Stock Exchange aims to attract listings of exchange-traded products and challenge increasing compliance costs at major U.S. indexes, as well as newer rules including setting targets for board diversity at the Nasdaq, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. #BlackRock #TXSE #citadel #NYSE

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The chart compares the U.S. #Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE) and the U.S. 3-Month #Treasury Bill rates (US03MY). MOVE measures the volatility in the U.S. bond market, while US03MY represents the interest rates of 3-month Treasury bills. The long-term graph (2003-2023) is useful for observing general trends. Notably, sharp increases in the #MOVE #index during major economic crises or political events stand out. For example, the high levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic indicate increased market uncertainty and volatility. During these times, interest rates generally fall as investors shift away from risk towards safer assets. Data from both graphs provide essential insights into the relationship between bond market volatility and interest rates. As #volatility increases, #investors’ perception of risk rises, leading them to move towards safer assets, such as Treasury #bills. #economy #economics #macroeconomics #markets #investing #money #innovation #management #humanresources #technology #productivity #future #business #leadership #linkedin #Fed #federalreserve #monetarypolicy #centralbanks #inflation #marketoutlook, #financialmarkets #stockmarket #equities #valuation #SP500 #interestrates #bondmarket #commodities #realestate #homeprices #foreignexchange #tradeweighteddollar #bitcoin #crypto #cryptocurrencies #profits #earnings #demography #babyboom #babyboomers #continuingeducation #education #financialanalyst #financialanalysis #CPA #CFP #CFA #RIA

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Insurance Money 🤝 Private Credit Investing As many market participants tell me, it's a win-win combination. The argument for the incredible boom in private credit firms investing insurance money is that this effectively matches the maturities of assets and liabilities. Dawn Lim and Silas Brown have a deep-dive today into what's going on, and also explain the risks. They write: Regulators fret about how investors could sell private loans in an emergency, and whether they’re being valued correctly. The International Monetary Fund has warned of stability risks from “entities with particularly high exposure to private credit markets, such as insurers influenced by private equity firms.” Stung by the loss of lucrative lending work, Wall Street bosses such as JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Jamie Dimon want tougher oversight of what they’ve called their shadow bank rivals. https://lnkd.in/dBfmy3qK #privatecredit #insurance #privateequity

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