Chris Butler

From where I sit in the SF Bay Area, cradle of innovation for at least the last 30 years, I'm a true believer in the promise of the #AI revolution. That said, I find it fascinating to consider views on the opposing side. I'm sharing below two opinion pieces from the last two weeks suggesting that the AI revolution is fundamentally overhyped and a bubble ripe for bursting, and that AI tools are actually not useful or transformative. Contrast this with venture capitalist Kai-Fu Lee's prognostication that 50% of white collar jobs will be displaced by #AI within three years, and that OpenAI and the other cutting edge movers in the space are headed to a trillion+ dollar valuation. Which side will win out? Where will we be by 2030 in the AI race? I'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments.

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🍜Anybody up for some ramen? I am excited to share that I am back in the garage, building again (it’s actually a house in the Berkeley Hills). We are taking the wraps off of Supercog AI, a new startup focused on solving Application Integration using LLM powered agents. My co-founder in this new venture is a great friend of mine (and a former co-founder partner), Alex Osborne. Alex and I have worked around the application integration space for a long time, and we are unrealistically excited about applying the GenAI stack to this problem. Not many people relish the task to get some bits to move from system A to system B. But it’s a critical job to be done, and that’s led to a lot of brittle scripts, a myriad of inflexible “no code” tools, and a lot of hand crafted SQL. But the power of the Large Language Model, trained on a huge corpus of information, offers a remarkable tool to solve this problem. The LLM you use today already knows the APIs of hundreds of popular systems. It knows the SQL dialects of every major database. It understands the semantics and data schemas of many popular SaaS systems. It understands much of the specific domain in which your business operates. I like to call the AI revolution “the last platform shift”. That may turn out to be hyperbole, but I definitely believe we are in the very early stages of seeing what this new stack can enable. I know we are hardly the first folks to claim that “amazing stuff is coming!”. But this is why Alex and I have decided to focus on a real and hard problem. If we can prove that LLMs can power a new way to solve this problem, it will be the first successful *new* approach in 15 years.. We will have much more to share about this new platform soon. In the meantime, if you’re interested in getting a peek - or even better if you have application or data integration tasks that you would like some help with - please reach out because we want to help. #genai #startups #backinthegarage

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Instacart is a market leader when it comes to leveraging AI tools to boost productivity at work. I had an amazing conversation with JJ Zhuang, Instacart’s Chief Architect, who has shepherded over 50 AI-driven initiatives to market across the org. We explored what catapulted Instacart to the forefront of AI integration, supporting radically diverse use cases across various functional areas. One striking insight (echoed by Ethan Mollick and others elsewhere) is that you often don't need specialized tools for specialized work. Frontier models like GPT-4 can seamlessly adapt to a wide range of functions and use cases. They're not just for engineers; they're incredibly versatile tools used by marketing, comms, and legal teams. From generating code to proofreading and ideation, GPT-4 empowers every department to leverage AI for enhanced productivity and innovation. By integrating LLM’s like GPT-4 into their workflows, teams can streamline processes, automate repetitive tasks, and unlock bandwidth for new creative possibilities. How can you harness the power of AI in your own work to boost productivity? Share your thoughts below 👇 Want to hear more insights from JJ? Check out the full podcast episode by clicking the link in the comments.

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AI is innovating a variety of industries across the US and Agriculture is no exception. 🐄 My new friend, Catie McVey, has created a new "Agtech" startup that uses patented 3D Modeling and Machine Learning algorithms to evaluate the health of cows by looking at specific characteristics such as hoof morphology and facial characteristics. Working with her to architect how to get source data from "The Stockyards" to "The Cloud" has been a lot of fun. I am constantly discovering new ways AI can make an impact in industries from legal, to healthcare and now agriculture! Read more about Catie's journey on RIoT - Internet of Things' blog #AI #software #agtech

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New iterative reasoning technique could improve RAG app accuracy by 50% (vs. Naive RAG)! Another solid example of the rapid innovation cycle on RAG research. BTW, you can quickly find out answers to question like "Why did combining RAG with Fine-Tuning and Iterative Reasoning, such as OODA, improve accuracy by 50 percent?" in Epsilla (YC S23)'s "RAG Research Paper" smart search app at: https://lnkd.in/gVgzpbue , with number of research papers included exceeding 360. #genai #rag #smartsearch #innoation

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Have you ever thought about how compliance laws are a lot like design systems? I recently spoke with Joe Toscano, founder of DataGrade, and he made a fascinating comparison. Joe explained how Brad Frost's atomic design methodology took an engineering approach to design: → Creating standardized elements → Templatizing them → Scaling them across a system This led to the rise of human interface guidelines (HIGs) from tech giants like Google, Apple, and IBM. But here's where it gets really interesting: Joe argued that privacy laws and regulations are like the ultimate HIG for product design. Just like how HIGs provide rules and constraints for design systems... Compliance laws set guardrails for what we can and can't do with user data. If we design something that isn't compliant, it doesn't matter how sleek the UI is. Legal requirements become the top-level framework we have to design within. That's what got Joe into studying laws - to understand this new "design system" for building products. So next time you're cursing a lengthy legal doc or trying to make sense of GDPR... Remember, it's all just part of the atomic design of compliance. — Do you agree with the analogy of compliance laws as the ultimate design system? Why or why not? Hear more of Joe's unique perspectives on the intersection of product, privacy, and law on the latest episode of The Minimum Viable Podcast.

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Last week, in the 100+ years’ old Palace of Fine Arts, gorgeous in the early summer California sun, over 30,000 people and some robots showed up for the GenAI summit https://genaisummit.ai/#/. The somewhat disorganized conference that attracted attendees from all over the world is a testimony of the current state of AI: everyone wants to get in, a LOT is happening, no one really has the paved path, but there is no doubt the future is here. As a student of AI, my key takeaways: ▶ Development of base models will be done by a few players who have the money to burn. One presenter quoted up to $100M for a single model. Though the architecture of the base models may be similar, each player has their secret sauce. And the winner of one model is unlikely to take all. All players are rapidly developing and revolutionizing. 🔹 Model “aggregators” fit domain-specific data to base models. They are not “picky” about which model to use. They add value by fine-tuning the models for specific domains. From prompt engineering to RAG to fine-tuning, SMEs play a key role in “landing” LLMs well. There is a boom of startups in this space. ⬆ Data is still foundational. It’s the era of unstructured data. New data storage and processing technologies are the backbone. Is there “enough” data for AI? It depends. Synthetic data is widely used. While “connected” data on the web is relatively easy for the models to access, “protected” data in enterprises requires jumping many hoops, including expert domain knowledge, governance and “imagining” the business problems they can solve. Data about the real world is fast growing, collected from sensors and fed into robotics. 💲 GPUs are expensive and power hungry. Optimization is the path today. Alternative hardware can take time. The bigness of AI meets the smallness of nuclear power. Mini nuclear power plant https://lnkd.in/giJkjTiG. 🛠 While the base model developers are relatively a small elite group, often with deep academia roots, applying the models to real world problems needs everyone in their current job working with AI. AI certainly created new job titles, but also makes it increasingly easier for the public to use it as a new “tool”, instead of a complete career change. 🐬 The most optimistic prediction of AGI is 3 years. The honest answer is no one really knows. How far will AI go from data, information, knowledge, intelligence to wisdom? Opinions differ. When the answer is 42, how would we know 😉 ? 

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Having worked at Cruise and Waymo on self-driving taught me many things. I hope to bring some of these learnings to healthcare so it too can soon have the magical, "no-driver-at-the-wheel" moment. Here's a short conversation I had with Louie Cai, MD on this topic!

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If you had a great startup idea, should you keep it a secret? Are musicians natural entrepreneurs? In this episode, Seed Zeng and I chat with Yotam Rosenbaum, musician, YC founder, and investor. 👉 Listen on your podcast app: https://tr.ee/ZmRr5NjEtk

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Today's 500 Words: Reflecting on Glue Work, the invisible force shaping teams. If you've not heard about glue work, here's the perfect opportunity to learn about it. "Five years ago, Tanya Reilly introduced the concept of "Glue Work" at Lead Dev NYC, illuminating an often overlooked aspect of team dynamics. As I reflect on my career, I realize how profoundly this concept resonates with my experiences and working style." Link in comments! If you like, feel free to subscribe.

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This week, we give a few Product Managers some advice on how to craft better user stories, debate whether wireframes are enough on their own, and help someone navigate being liked by the rest of their organization. And then we talk about more ways AI is being used by humans to do terrible things, from a start-up that wants to scan your junk to mis-identify an STI, to a candidate who possibly lost his election thanks to a deep fake. Also, frickin Zuckerburg installed a hacker's toolkit on your phone to try and snoop on Snapchat, because he's a cool guy. https://lnkd.in/gi4tP2yS #ai #deepfakes #facebook #snapchat #engineering #productmanagement #podcast https://lnkd.in/gJw6T7dH

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This resonated with me today: "“One flaw of designers (as people) is pretending faster is always better and quick always equals efficient. A fast pace can feel good and productive short-term, but there are many long-term consequences: losing productivity, overlooking important things, and undermining diversity. It is not efficient to move so fast that we exhaust ourselves, overlook the obvious, or break everything along the way, yet we often make that assumption.” It's from Assembling Tomorrow and I highly recommend the book. https://lnkd.in/gK43NueY

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Using Generative AI for simplifying complex concepts

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👉 Building up a new podcast is *already* been an enlightening experience. Have had a chance to chat with some amazing folks, got some incredible feedback, and have a ton of ideas for how this series will proceed. I will say, the most exciting part of my recent podcast, "Building Products with Generative AI", is that there is a narrative that is building throughout each episode. I'm not going to reveal what that is just yet, but if you watch each episode, you'll start to notice a solid pattern!

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"Last year, more than 50% of all global venture funding for AI-related startups went to companies headquartered in the Bay Area, Crunchbase data shows, as a cluster of talent congregates in the region." In other news, water is wet. There was a moment during the pandemic when it looked like everyone was going to work remotely and there was an opportunity for startups to be founded anywhere. I think that time has gone: the San Francisco Bay Area is once again the place to found any kind of technology startup. Yes, there are always exceptions, but the confluence of community density, living conditions, universities, and mindset make for a perfect storm. NYC and London - and maybe Boston / Cambridge - are pretty good too, for what it's worth, but the sheer volume of startup activity in the area gives San Francisco the edge. This is something I fought earlier in my career: my first startup was proudly founded in Scotland and largely run from England. I wish we'd just moved to San Francisco. This isn't to completely sing the praises of the city: the cost of living is now astronomical, and there's a contingent of right-wing activists that seem to want to paint it as some doom spiraling hellhole, as if its progressive past isn't something to be proud of. But there is still beauty, there is still that can-do sense of adventure, and if I was founding something new, that's probably where I'd be.

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ALERT! We recently discovered that a fraudulent website, https://createape.cfd, is impersonating Create Ape and scamming individuals with false employment offers. This is a serious issue that we are actively addressing. At Create Ape, we take online security very seriously and are working closely with Alibaba hosting to have this scam site taken down. Your safety and trust are our top priorities. If you encounter any suspicious activity or communication claiming to be from Create Ape, please verify its legitimacy by contacting us directly at info@createape.com. Reporting the fraudulent site to Alibaba hosting can also help expedite its removal. For more details, check out our latest blog post: https://lnkd.in/grKCxb_Z Stay informed, stay safe, and thank you for your continued support! 🙏 #CreateApe #ScamAlert #OnlineSecurity #StaySafe #ReportScams

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Insightful reflections on the "magic" of AI and LLMs to help us temper our expectations: https://lnkd.in/gip9pHc2

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If you have a YC interview coming up - reach out and our team of YC Alumni can help set up some mock interviews

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We hosted our first ever Hangar DX dinner in SF this week! We kept the dinner intimate with 12 DX leaders from Slack, Notion, Figma, Reddit, Amplitude, LinkedIn, Yelp, Benchling, Babylist and AMD. This gave everyone opportunity to have open unfiltered conversation about the DevEx space today, and form real connections. These were some of my most surprising findings: 🌟 None of the DevEx teams have a Product Manager - it is extremely hard to find a PM for DevEx who truly understands and aligns with developers' complex workflow needs 🌟 Even though everyone feels the pain of ownership, no one is using any off-the-shelf IDP today 🌟 Roadmap is primarily driven bottoms up - everyone uses some form of surveys and internal interviews to inform the roadmap 🌟 Influencing C-suite and explaining impact seems to be on top of mind Thank you Poya Osgouei for helping host the dinner, and Aviator for sponsoring :) #developerproductivity #developerexperience #devex

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