Adam Silcox

Now that we are halfway through July, I wanted to look at where the dry van truckload spot market was at. Using data from DAT Freight & Analytics, I’ve calculated the dry van spot market cycle indictor as broker buy contract rates less dry van TL spot rates divided by the average of the two series. One chart below. Thoughts: •Historically, when this ratio falls below 10%, we tend to see a bull market pricing cycle begin, which is picked up well the Bureau of Labor Statistics primary service producer price index for general freight trucking, long-distance, truckload (https://lnkd.in/gUXXNHrd). Conversely, anytime we see the series move above 15%, we enter a bear market pricing cycle. Key dates for bull cycles labeled in black, bear cycles in red. These dates mirror swings in observed contract & spot rates picked up by BLS. •The bad news for carriers is that July’s reading of 15.8% is well away from the 10% threshold. As such, there aren’t signs of the market being ready to turn. •For the market to turn, we need more freight demand. Unfortunately, as I’ve been noting frequently, demand conditions just aren’t great now. For example, Cass Shipments, which tracks the trucking ton-mile index quite closely, fell in June to the lowest level since the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic (https://lnkd.in/gAZb34hZ).  As I’ll share next week, machinery manufacturing and wholesaling is especially weak. Implication: I continue to see few signs that the dry van truckload sector will enter a bull market pricing cycle in 2024. It increasingly looks like any capacity tightening felt in June was just a return of seasonality. Continued weakness in pricing and freight demand reinforces my emphasis on why domestic manufacturing activity must be front and center in discussions about freight demand, with less attention given to retail sales. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #economics #markets

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13 Comments

I've been talking with account teams at carriers all week who process hundreds of spot opportunities. Of course, they go from one TMS system to the next looking for the right load. Or, they comb through the countless emails that get sent their way. It's hard to get untethered from the constant monitoring and focus on building relationships with your accounts. Typically when we introduce Manifold Freight the first bit of feedback we get is, "oh, this saves us a lot of time in managing all the TMS's and emails". Then quickly following, the sales manager in me comes out immediately and I reply, "yeah, so you can get back to managing your customer". As I talk with carriers and brokers alike I realize so much time is wasted not doing the most important things.

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#Interesting and very #DESPERATE times ... if some carriers have embraced the concept of a "Loss Leader" just to keep the doors open. The concept of ... "Yea, we lose a $1 on every sale, but we'll make it up in volume" has #NEVER worked in retail and it definitely won't work here in trucking where it's #NOT $1 per load, but hundreds of dollars per load. I get it that there are some carriers that are just barely staying alive and hoping and praying the #CashFlow will keep them alive to fight another day. But losing money on loads, is #NEVER a good idea, especially when you are struggling. I personally know of one such TL carrier with over 400 trucks out of the Northwest that may not survive the month. I hope and pray that they do, for the sake of the drivers and employees. But when #Leadership is too proud to admit their mistakes, and unwilling to accept the recommendations of those wanting and willing to assist to help the carrier survive ... and even provide those services on a Pro Bono basis (for some that may not know the term, that's for #No #Charge) ... there's not much that friends or associates can do. Anyhow, enough about that ... read the article and I'm sure you'll walk away scratching your head. https://lnkd.in/gsvQDjCb

3

Freight fraud is a hot topic right now for carriers and brokers. 2 Dawgs, 1 Pod. will be back at 2cst on Friday to talk everything fraud and highway related with Michael Caney. Is it a good idea to be sharing stories on the bad guys on social media or is that helping them get better? Should we be relying on the fmsca to fix things? There is a lot of different possible topics on the idea of fraud, I will say from everyone I talk to everyone loves Highway and they are becoming a household name in that space. I know it’s a common question that comes up when I talk to potential agents, and they are happy to hear we utlize highway. They have definitely figured something out in this space imo and excited to talk about it. #fraud #freight #logistics #trucking

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15 Comments

I've said this before. But I get to see it every day and compare -> The #logistics and #supplychain sales reps are some of the most talented people I've ever worked with. 1. Complex sales process (especially around pricing) 2. They often sell an OMS/WMS, which essentially is selling a SAAS product 3. They have to have a handle on most things integration (EDI/API/ERPs) 4. Longer sales cycles 5. Fighting against the shipping/commodity economics 6. Multiple decision-makers and personas in the buying process 7. A notorious industry that is not always on the up & up 8. A competitive landscape with players spending MILLIONS(plural)in advertising #salesinlogistics #3pl #supplychain #ecommerce #richhitsgoals

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7 Comments

Real Time Visibility is over emphasized in Residential LTL and Final Mile Consumers don't care about stop by stop tracking They care that the shipment gets there with as little friction and hassle as possible and more importantly that it gets there 'on-time' Consumers don't care as much about speed as you would think. Getting it there when you say you will get it there is more important that speed LTL and Final Mile should focus almost exclusively about getting shipments to the consumer on-time, in one piece, and with friendly delivery drivers if there is a white glove install Exception management is the real difference maker in this industry; not visibility #LTL #FinalMile #visibility #customerservice

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19 Comments

With the 4th of July holiday fast approaching, I wanted to take a look at where June’s dry van truckload spot market rates stand to get a sense if the market is showing any signs of turning. Two charts below using data from DAT Freight & Analytics. Thoughts: •Top chart shows dry van spot rates as well as dry van broker buy contract rates. Dry Van spot rates, while up $0.06 per mile from the April low, are down $0.03 per mile from June 2023. Given diesel prices are down just $0.08 per gallon from a year ago (https://lnkd.in/g5sUVM8V), fuel isn’t driving this difference. •June 2024’s $0.03 increase over May is quite weak relative to what we have traditionally seen in dry van TL bull markets. In 2014 the increase was $0.11 per mile; in 2017 it was $0.10 per mile; and in 2018 it was $0.17 per mile. For that matter, the increase was $0.10 in 2019 (a down year)! As such, spot prices so far are a sign of a cruel summer—my daughter is obsessed with Taylor Swift—from a pricing standpoint. •Bottom chart shows the dry van spot market cycle indicator (DVSMCI), calculated as the broker buy rate less the spot rate, with the difference divided by the average of the two measures. That ratio is currently 16.6%. While better than last year’s 19.9% reading, we are well away from the 10% threshold where we have tended to see markets flip. Implication: dry van spot market data suggest that folks who made predictions of the dry van truckload market flipping from bear to bull in late Q2 or early Q3 likely made an overly optimistic forecast. I increasingly believe the earliest the market could meaningfully flip is Q2 2025, and this will require many things to go right from carriers’ vantages for this to occur. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #truckload

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21 Comments

Perspective and belief. Reading some of the comments making fun of Cam newton got me thinking. Logistics may be recession proof to Cam if he owns a brokerage or has mainly food shippers? I know some brokerages of all sizes that are growing despite this recession. Their leadership may view themselves as “recession proof”. I’ll tell you what I’d rather have Cam newtons overly positive attitude, then be surrounded by a bunch of people spreading gloom and doom about the market. Telling you how something is impossible or that you can’t do that. Wonder how many people told Cam he would never make it to NFL, or made fun of his childhood dreams . I’d guess a lot. The majority of successful people I have met In sales and business have a overly positive attitude. Happy Friday! #sales #mindset #logistics #trucking

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5 Comments

Shippers have to balance the mix of cost and service at all times. Freight never sleeps. Do they have the tools to make mid-cycle adjustments to continuously find optimal cost+service outcomes?

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1 Comment

A wise friend said, "If you think compliance is expensive, try non-compliance". As an exporter, it's essential to be aware of the obligations that come with exporting, even under EXW terms. Unfortunately, many forwarders fail to address these obligations. If you're feeling uncertain about your current export compliance or need a refresher, don't hesitate to reach out. Let's have a discussion and ensure your exporting practices are up to par.

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1 Comment

We're building Manifold Freight to address many of the biggest issues I've seen over many years managing sales and account management teams. Managing multiple TMS systems, endless load offer emails and multiple broker boards ensure your teams time is inefficiently spent. Inefficiencies mean your teams aren't performing their core function, brining in the freight to optimize your capacity and grow revenue. It's simple. I've seen it over and over. Even the best reps miss the best loads for your trucks and carriers. Our product solves for having to your teams manage multiple load board logins, emails etc. We aggregate all the necessary information for you to take action on in a quick and easy interface. The feedback from users and potential clients has been amazing. We solve their critical issues. Get a hold of us for a demo. We'll show you how we're helping our customers grow revenue and improve profitability. https://lnkd.in/gK35KTPs #freight #truckload #truckloadcarrier #freightbroker #trucks #truckdriver

5

LTL is rapidly shifting towards a parcel-based pricing paradigm. What does that mean? When you or anyone ships something parcel, whether it is a book or jewelry or mouthwash or an Iphone, here is how it works: 1. Pricing is based on the size and weight of the container (cardboard box), not what is in the box. Period. 2. Pricing is based more on cube than weight, even though the rates are weight-based, because space is matters most. Period 3. The carrier offers a base liability ($100 per carton), and also offers all-inclusive insurance for a fee to give you full protection. With LTL, we are still stuck today with a class-based, weight-based system and complicated proxies (rules) to account for space. And the class-based system tries to account for liability, which with the way carriers limit liability, does not do much. So what is the future for LTL? Well, look at the 3 steps above. That I think is a good hint. Its coming folks. The NMFC is making big changes in 2025, and its time to get in front of this situation. What do you think? Is the parcelization of LTL truly upon us?

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43 Comments

Things freight brokers can control: Their integrity. Their thoughts. How kind they are. Their service effort. Their brand identity. How reflective they are. How thoughtful they are. The people they listen to. Their work and life beliefs. The type of vendor they are. Their attitude toward carriers and customers. Everything else is secondary.

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2 Comments

Selecting the right shipping provider is crucial for your import supply chain's success. Here are 5 things to consider: 1. Know your free days before demurrage charges start. 2. Assess how fast and far your product needs to move from the port. 3. Opt for transloading if traveling over 200-250 miles from the port. 4. Decide on the visibility level needed for in-transit freight. 5. Use a single provider for efficiency and prioritized freight handling.  Working with a comprehensive provider like Schneider: - Simplifies your supply chain management - Reduces touchpoints - Prioritizes your success This leads to cost savings and better customer focus.

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Dry Van and flatbed spot rates flat - reefer was up ahead of Mother's Day. Active contract van rates down 1% - replacement rates down 1.2% Large public TL capacity in Q1 down 15.4% since June '22 - 5 quarters of declines Imports up 4% m/m and y/y/ in April - China-LAX vols up 15% m/m Road check wee is here. #DATIQmarketupdate #logistics #supplychain

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🚨 STOP THE MADNESS! 🚨 The example below is 100% true! When did it become acceptable for any LTL (Less-Than-Truckload) carrier to slap a $9,897.44 penalty on a single shipment? What was the penalty for, you ask? Because it exceeded 12 linear feet? Okay, LTL carrier, we get it — you don’t want “messy” freight in your network that costs more to handle. But this is excessive and absurd, pure madness, and we all know it! • Don’t blame COVID → that’s old news. • Think this will change shipper behavior? → you’re just pissing people off! • Shippers have choices → they’ll take their business elsewhere. • No one is too big to fail → remember Rome? Carriers and shippers need to work together as partners. Lose the transactional mindset. I’m curious if anyone else has experienced similar madness. 🤔

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56 Comments

There’s an old saying in freight brokerage: The barrier is so low all it takes is two guys and a phone. 👨‍📱👨🏻 While that may have been the case in the early 2000s, that’s no longer true. The required tech stack has become HUGE, with a TMS, CRM, and tons of freight-related tools. At the London School of Business, we discussed Porter’s Five Forces, and Barriers to Entry was one of them. When freight brokerage was an example of this, do you know the advice given? Don’t get into it! It’s hard to know how much is required and how many pieces of tech you now need (though the guys at Metafora probably have the answers). The bottom line: The barriers to entry are getting higher, and it's no longer about two guys and a phone. #supplychain #freightbrokerage #barrierstoentry #techstack #B2B #B2Bmarketing

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10 Comments

Is sales training in logistics broken? Maybe, but I think the real question is should the trainers be trainers? I think everyone would agree that the majority of shippesr say the spray and pray is the majority of the outreach they get. I’ve been seeing a major increase in Ai on LinkedIn, and the last month or so I have been clicking the profile to see the persons title. Suprsingly the titles “ director of sales”, “owner” , “sales manager” , etc come up. If you can’t make authentic content on a simple LinkedIn post do you really believe these people are teaching their reps anything other than spray and pray? I don’t, but that just me . That’s why I tell the majority of new reps the best you can do in my opinion is find the top preforming reps at your company by the numbers and listen to them, ask questions,etc. What do you think? How else did we get here? #kidfreight #sales #logistics #trucking

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72 Comments