John Park

North Korea seems to be insisting on two conditions for the U.S. summit it believed to have been previously established: U.S.–South Korea exercises will exclude threatening military power, and the U.S. will enter denuclearization negotiations in good faith.

Belfer Center expert looks at potential progress, fallout from the North, South Korea meeting.

The two Koreas laid a foundation on which to build permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula. Paradoxically, however, the Panmunjom Declaration has left skeptics more skeptical and optimists more optimistic.

Sanctions are unintentionally making the Kim regime more resilient. How? North Korea, Inc.

U.S. forces in South Korea are on high alert after North Korea claimed to have tested a hydrogen bomb last week. But China may be better positioned to curb North Korea's menacing behavior.

At no point in the history of U.S. nonproliferation and counterproliferation policy have financial sanctions been so central to U.S. efforts to prevent or rollback the acquisition of nuclear weapons in countries such as North Korea and Iran. Despite this crucial role, financial sanctions have been examined almost solely from the sender’s perspective, that is, the country imposing the sanctions. Few focused policy analyses have measured the effects of these instruments from the target’s… Show more

At no point in the history of U.S. nonproliferation and counterproliferation policy have financial sanctions been so central to U.S. efforts to prevent or rollback the acquisition of nuclear weapons in countries such as North Korea and Iran. Despite this crucial role, financial sanctions have been examined almost solely from the sender’s perspective, that is, the country imposing the sanctions. Few focused policy analyses have measured the effects of these instruments from the target’s perspective. Show less

This chapter presents a new framework of analysis to explore North Korea's evolving use of its nuclear arsenal and implications for both the Korean Peninsula and U.S. policy.

John S. Park, Stanton Nuclear Security Junior Faculty Fellow at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, argues that cooperation between North Korea and Iran has been a critical—yet underexamined—enabler of North Korea’s recent success. He concludes that the time has come for the United States to view the two previously independent missile programs as two sides of the same coin and recommends strategies for disrupting the procurement channels between Iran and North Korea.

While policy makers and scholars have long devoted considerable attention to strategies like deterrence, which threaten others with unacceptable consequences, such threat-based strategies are not always the best option. In some cases, a state may be better off seeking to give others a greater sense of security, rather than by holding their security at risk. The most prominent use of these security assurances has been in conjunction with efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear… Show more

While policy makers and scholars have long devoted considerable attention to strategies like deterrence, which threaten others with unacceptable consequences, such threat-based strategies are not always the best option. In some cases, a state may be better off seeking to give others a greater sense of security, rather than by holding their security at risk. The most prominent use of these security assurances has been in conjunction with efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons.

Ongoing concerns about the nuclear activities of countries like Iran and North Korea, and the possible reactions of other states in their regions, have catapulted this topic into high profile. This book represents the first study to explore the overall utility of assurance strategies, to evaluate their effectiveness as a tool for preventing nuclear proliferation, and to identify conditions under which they are more or less likely to be effective. Show less

Assessing regime stability in North Korea continues to be a major challenge for analysts. By examining how North Korea, Inc. — the web of state trading companies affiliated to the Korean Workers’ Party, the Korean People’s Army, and the Cabinet — operates, we can develop a new framework for gauging regime stability. As interviews with defectors who previously worked in these state trading companies indicate, the regime is able to derive funds from North Korea, Inc. to maintain the loyalty of… Show more

Assessing regime stability in North Korea continues to be a major challenge for analysts. By examining how North Korea, Inc. — the web of state trading companies affiliated to the Korean Workers’ Party, the Korean People’s Army, and the Cabinet — operates, we can develop a new framework for gauging regime stability. As interviews with defectors who previously worked in these state trading companies indicate, the regime is able to derive funds from North Korea, Inc. to maintain the loyalty of the North Korean elites and to provide a mechanism through which different branches of the North Korean state can generate funds for operating budgets. During periods when North Korea's international isolation deepens as a result of its brinkmanship activities, North Korea, Inc. constitutes an effective coping mechanism for the Kim Jong Il regime. Show less

The Long Shadow is the first comprehensive, systematic examination of the roles and implications of nuclear weapons in the dramatically different post–Cold War security environment. Leading experts investigate the roles and salience of nuclear weapons in the national security strategies of twelve countries and the ASEAN states, and their implications for security and stability in a broadly defined Asian security region that includes the Middle East. The study also investigates the prospects for… Show more

The Long Shadow is the first comprehensive, systematic examination of the roles and implications of nuclear weapons in the dramatically different post–Cold War security environment. Leading experts investigate the roles and salience of nuclear weapons in the national security strategies of twelve countries and the ASEAN states, and their implications for security and stability in a broadly defined Asian security region that includes the Middle East. The study also investigates the prospects for nuclear terrorism in Asia.

A chief conclusion of the study is that nuclear weapons influence national security strategies in fundamental ways and that deterrence continues to be the dominant role and strategy for the employment of nuclear weapons. Offensive and defensive strategies may increase in salience but will not surpass the deterrence function. Another major conclusion is that although there could be destabilizing situations, on balance, nuclear weapons have reinforced security and stability in the Asian security region by assuaging national security concerns, strengthening deterrence and the status quo, and preventing the outbreak and escalation of major hostilities.

As nuclear weapons will persist and cast a long shadow on security in Asia and the world, it is important to reexamine and redefine "old" ideas, concepts, and strategies as well as develop "new" ones relevant to the contemporary era. In line with this, the global nuclear order should be constructed anew based on present realities. Show less

This report is based on discussions with Chinese specialists on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) during a visit to Beijing, Changchun, and Yanji, June 25–30, 2007. Discussions followed on a similar round of interviews conducted in April 2006. Several of our interlocutors recently returned from extended stays in Pyongyang and many others regularly visit the DPRK, commonly referred to as North Korea. Topics discussed included trends in North Korea's economy and prospects for… Show more

This report is based on discussions with Chinese specialists on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) during a visit to Beijing, Changchun, and Yanji, June 25–30, 2007. Discussions followed on a similar round of interviews conducted in April 2006. Several of our interlocutors recently returned from extended stays in Pyongyang and many others regularly visit the DPRK, commonly referred to as North Korea. Topics discussed included trends in North Korea's economy and prospects for reform; current trends in Sino-DPRK economic relations; China's policy toward North Korea in the wake of the nuclear test; Chinese debates on North Korea; Chinese assessments of North Korea's political stability; and potential Chinese responses to instability. In analyzing North Korea, Chinese experts primarily rely on the following sources of information: 1) South Korean economic data; 2) personal visits to North Korea; 3) contacts with visiting North Korean delegations and North Korean students studying in China; and 4) interviews with North Korean refugees in China. Show less

In the North Korean nuclear standoff, there is a major difference between having leverage and the ability to use it. China has the former, but not the latter. North Korea has both. On paper, China has the political, military and economic leverage to effect significant change in the North Korean regime's behaviour and the regime itself. The international community saw glimpses of this leverage when Beijing temporarily shut off an oil pipeline to North Korea in early 2003. But China is… Show more

In the North Korean nuclear standoff, there is a major difference between having leverage and the ability to use it. China has the former, but not the latter. North Korea has both. On paper, China has the political, military and economic leverage to effect significant change in the North Korean regime's behaviour and the regime itself. The international community saw glimpses of this leverage when Beijing temporarily shut off an oil pipeline to North Korea in early 2003. But China is significantly constrained by three factors that North Korea is aware of and uses to its advantage... Show less