Disruptive Futures Institute

What is metaruptions? Just like most 'journalistic' academics are you treating prediction and foresight in similar lines? or strategic planning and futures synonymously? This is one of the finest articles I read on foresight this week; by @rogerspitz #foresight #futures

“The purpose of scenario development is preparation, not prediction.” A good read on ‘Why shifting from prediction to foresight can help us plan for future disruption’ by Roger Spitz [1]. While I didn’t agree with all of it, a lot of it resonates and a few bits in particular stood out: “In deeply uncertain environments, causality can only be assessed retrospectively, relationships are unpredictable, and moving parts interdependent.” “Foresight is the capacity to explore the possible futures systemically, as well as drivers of change, to inform short-term decision-making.” “Only the present exists, so all our decisions towards long-term futures need to be translated to the now.” And the whole conclusion: “The purpose of scenario development is preparation, not prediction. This readying benefits any eventualities, beyond the handful of future scenarios imagined. As we evaluate the opportunities and risks from our scenarios, we scrutinize their potential consequences. We can then build resilience to sustain even the most serious outcomes. Foresight does not hold a crystal ball. It prepares you for the swerves. The future of prediction is imagination.” — In the words of Kristen Stuart, Gagan Chawla and Harumi Shiraishi Lopez: “Tuned to today, tilting toward tomorrow” [2]

"While you are busy fighting for incremental improvements, someone will come along and create a new market." The boundaries between industries are quickly dissolving, with significant implications for any company trying to make an impact. The new report from MIT Tech Review, "The future of industries in the era of systemic disruption," is a fascinating read. The core argument within is that no company today exists within a single sector, and success depends on how you respond to this natural change. Here are some of my favorite takeaways from the report: (1) Companies risk a loss of focus and irrelevancy by limiting competitive analysis to specific industries. "We can no longer treat transport, energy, aerospace, materials, technology or urbanization as separate elements, because they are deeply interconnected," the report states. That's why it's important to widen your scope of research to find new opportunity spaces, and adopt a value system to your insights practice that embraces curiosity and tangential research. (2) Without innovation hubs and progressive initiatives, established industry leaders will be outrun by smaller, nimbler companies willing to take risks. The report highlights how companies like Impossible Foods have challenged the meat and dairy industry giants with their innovative approach to alternative proteins, while Square and Stripe inspire traditional processing companies like JPMorgan and Mastercard to step up their game. (3) "In the process of imagining what is possible, entirely new fields emerge" What if you could look at the amorphous nature of industry as a potential to discover revolutionary breakthroughs? The report notes that "In the future we will be able to create diamonds without relying on mining...In the process of imagining what is possible, entirely new fields emerge." Companies that dare to branch into emerging technologies can not just capture existing markets, but establish entirely new, extremely passionate ones. (4) Rethink the concept of "competition" "There are no direct competitors. Your competitors may also be your biggest partners, suppliers, customers and investors." As sector boundaries dissolve, company can juggle multiple expertises at once, making direct comparisons difficult. Are there ways in which companies can shed their aversion to collaboration, and make progressive strides through strategic partnerships? (5) Investing in information transparency and storytelling is crucial to success In the social media age, good storytelling is an imperative. As detailed in the MIT report, "Information, narrative, and misinformation profoundly affect profits. When stakeholders, consumers and employees understand the story, trust the vision and respect the values, they are more likely to accept your offers." These are just a few of many insightful points in this rich report that resonated with me! You can find the full report in the comments below ⬇️

What is The Future of Industries in the Age of Systemic Disruption? Read my latest MIT Technology Review article. 🇧🇷 For my many Brazilian (and Portuguese speaking) friends and partners, my latest article below is in MIT Technology Review Brasil. 📚 This article is derived from themes in my upcoming book ‘Disrupt With Impact’ (Chapter 8 - The next chapter of digital disruption: Industries converge and new fields emerge). 🔎 O futuro das indústrias na era da disrupção sistêmica: As “indústrias” ou “setores” bem delineados do passado estão desaparecendo. Os líderes precisam de novos filtros para avaliar as empresas e os seus cenários em constante evolução no mundo liminar de hoje. ➡️ The future is hybrid: In a liminal world, there are no industry boundaries. ➡️ The current boundaries and definitions of clearly delineated “industries” or “sectors” are disappearing. ➡️ Leaders, investors and analysts need new filters to evaluate companies, competitors and their evolving landscapes in today’s liminal world. ➡️ As industries intersect, radical shifts take place in the value chains. ➡️ In a digital, dematerialized, disintermediated world, there are no direct competitors. Check out my recent piece and share your insights in the comments!⤵  ⏩ https://lnkd.in/ejHaeJJm #complexity #systemsthinking  #decisionmaking #uncertainty #unpredictability #foresight MIT Technology Review Brasil Disruptive Futures Institute Techistential (Strategic Foresight & Sustainable Futures)

Quando você pensa no AirBnB, você o enxerga como um gigante do setor de consumo, um player imobiliário ou um marketplace online? Não se preocupe se não conseguir definir. Afinal, em um cenário em que não existe mais diferença entre o online e o offline, essas delimitações dos setores da indústria estão ficando cada vez mais turvas. Neste artigo, Roger Spitz, consultor especialista do World Economic Forum e colaborador da MIT Technology Review, se debruçou sobre os seis paradigmas que estão impulsionando o processo de convergência das indústrias. Leia mais no artigo completo: https://lnkd.in/dNGg32E3 ◆ A MIT Technology Review é a maior plataforma de conteúdos de tecnologia e inovação do mundo: https://lnkd.in/ePA2-SP ◆ As últimas e mais relevantes inovações do mercado na sua caixa de e-mail: https://lnkd.in/eX-vgRc

Preparing for Future Disruptions: Foresight in Action In the evolving landscape of global challenges, foresight is critical. As Roger Spitz writes in this article for the World Economic Forum, "Foresight is preparation, not prediction." This readiness benefits any eventualities, beyond the handful of future scenarios imagined. When it comes to the climate and nature crisis, this foresight is crucial. By preparing for various potential futures, organisations can better navigate the uncertainties and disruptions brought about by climate change. This proactive approach enables us to build resilience and adaptability, ensuring that we are ready for whatever the future holds. UNUECO’s latest project, “Alternative Futures,” currently in early development, integrates immersive storytelling with the principles of future thinking and foresight to offer a multifaceted perspective on the topic. It aims to inspire action by providing leaders and organisations with a broader perspective to stimulate strategic planning towards a sustainable and carbon-free future. Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/dxifhiAz #Foresight #Future #ClimateChange #Sustainability #Resilience #Storytelling

Our modern working world has become far too Complex, Uncertain & Disruptive to rely solely on predictive methods for mitigating material risks. The idea that so many organisations task their risk officers with accurately evaluating future risk outcomes through forward looking evaluations, estimations, forecasting, probabilistic analysis and the like, has always been an oddity to me, as it seems imperfect. Of particular concern is how our accepted risk management guiding standards encourage organisations to all follow the same standardised “Identify, Measure & Treat” process. Such a linear-sequenced control method, can only work however if all material risks are foreseeable, pre-known or rational. However in a working world facing such escalated levels of systemic volatility, this particular method is clearly impaired The Complexity Sciences teach us that the more Complexity, Uncertainty or Dynamism that exists within a particular system, the more potential for unforeseeable emergent factors to materialise which could cause disruption. It is the increased variety, ambiguity and systemic change on offer which creates a higher potential for unpredictable phenomena to emerge. In fact, the higher the situational Complexity, Uncertainty or rate of Change, the less rational, ordered and predictable the surrounding environment becomes. So much so, that at the highest levels we have Chaos, a state of Wild Disorder which is mostly undeterminable and therefore, often uncontrollable    So what happens when there is simply too many systemic unknowns, too much system variety or too much rapid change to proactively "identify, measure & treat" all risks, what do appointed risk officers do then? As yet our guiding standards still do not provide adequate advice on how to mitigate against those risks which are simply unforeseeable or unquantifiable. So where is the global risk management standard for Disruption, Wicked Problems, Unknown-Unknowns, Black Swans, Chaos, Macro-Global Threats, Polycrisis and the list goes on? We all know these advanced classes of risk exist and that they are increasing in both global frequency & impact. We also know that these particular risks are far to wicked to mitigate through conventional risk methods, so where is the guiding literature on these? With the need for new learnings in mind, check out Roger Spitz's WEF paper (see link below) whereby he argues that the future is far too uncertain to count on prediction when controlling material risks and thus we now need to move more towards readiness, agility, sense making and scenario planning (aka Resilient Preparation). He also introduces the term “Metaruption” which appears to be an ominous evolution of the current Global Polycrisis Hold on folks, this ride may get even bumpier still... the question now becomes, what are we all going to do about it? https://lnkd.in/gqywSRxu #risk #riskmanagement #resilience #disruption #complexity #complexsystems #systemsthinking

🇺🇸 The complex and dynamic nature of the world we live in makes it increasingly necessary to abandon paradigms, rediscover wisdom, and build new bridges and sources of knowledge to move forward. Roger Spitz's work in this field has always been inspiring and provides indispensable practical and mental tools for individuals and businesses to follow trajectories that create value and balance. And now, another step in this journey of bringing together so much knowledge, perspectives, and understandings becomes a reality with his new work, "Disrupt With Impact", nearing its release. Congratulations, Roger Spitz, and I'm looking forward to reading the book and being surprised. A must-read for those who want better to understand the nature of the world around us and build a path of impact! I also suggest reading the books in "The Definitive Guide to Thriving on Disruption" series. 🇧🇷 A natureza complexa e dinâmica do mundo em que vivemos torna cada vez mais necessário abandonar paradigmas, redescobrir sabedorias e construir novas pontes e fontes de conhecimento para avançarmos. O trabalho do Roger Spitz nesse campo sempre foi inspirador e fornece ferramentas práticas e mentais indispensáveis para que pessoas e negócios consigam seguir trajetórias que criem valor efetivo e com equilíbrio. E, agora, mais um passo nessa jornada de trazer tantos conhecimentos, visões e compreensões se torna realidade, com a sua nova obra, "Disrupt With Impacto", próxima de seu lançamento. Parabéns Roger Spitz e estou ansioso por ler o livro e ser surpreendido. Uma leitura obrigatória para pessoas que queiram entender melhor a natureza do mundo que nos cerca e construir uma trajetória de impacto! E, também fica a sugestão de leitura dos livros da série "The Definitive Guide to Thriving on Disruption". Techistential (Strategic Foresight & Sustainable Futures)

The Future is Not a Joke 💬 What happens when a Black Swan, Gray Rhino, Black Jellyfish, and Black Elephant walk into a bar…? I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🌏 I’ve been spending time in Los Angeles, and true to LA tradition attended the “Netflix is a Joke Fest”, with excellent live performances at the The Comedy Store in West Hollywood. 🎥 Having performed a few decades of “ Improv’ ” (aka life), I’ve decided to take on formal courses in the art and craft of comedy writing and stand-up with the Upright Citizens Brigade. ➡️ My working title for a potential comedy podcast/show is “The Future is Not a Joke”. It may seem like an unexpected medium to develop alongside a think tank and executive education, but I hope to use a comedic approach to make futures studies and foresight more accessible. 🎲 Can you imagine the unpredictable cascades when stand up routines apply complex adaptive systems, futures wheels, threatcasting, and the Mānoa scenario method? #futuresstudies #comedy #improv #foresight #learning

📚 We Have a Cover! 🧭 “Disrupt with Impact: Achieve Business Success in an Unpredictable World” has a cover (...and a signed-off manuscript). We are set for a September book release! 💬 “The true impact of innovation isn’t in its disruptiveness; rather, it lies in its ability to ignite hope, unlock new possibilities, and catalyze positive transformations across systems. [...] Imagine navigating uncharted waters with a compass calibrated for the unpredictable.” 🌐 Stay tuned for updates in the run-up to my book launch. Press release and Kogan Page links below in comments ⤵