Cedar Grove Capital Management

Hims $HIMS is reporting earnings after the bell and the last few days have sent the stock down 18% on various news and market events. A name I know well, I decided to share my updated thoughts and model assumptions prior to ER. In the below post, I go over - How recent news of $LLY changes the prospects for HIMS compounding - How I’m viewing WW International’s $WW clinical business when analyzing headwinds regarding HIMS. - Updated HIMS valuation with an isolated GLP-1 sales model. Click the link below to access the research. 🔗: https://lnkd.in/ePdz4W9G

Sharing a new milestone achievement for my equity research service through Cedar Grove Capital Management. Yesterday it surpassed 2,000 investors on the platform (+32% since the original post). The service is currently generating over $16k in ARR in just 2.5 months and the returns have been stellar (see below). The service is $35/mo or $250/year (40% discount), but as you can see, just with the research I've put out in 2024, the returns have been ~12x the annual rate with an 8x return in just the last 2.5 months. As of 1 pm today, the total return is more like ~18x due to index PUT contracts on 7/9 reacting to the sell-off this morning on earnings. Regardless, I'm happy with the results, the quality of my research, and all the support from those who follow me. Due to constant evolution, prices will be going up on August 1 but those interested can be grandfathered in before then. To understand my reasoning here, you can reference my email sent to investors this morning which explains it all. (link in the first comment) Cheers to the next 2,000 🍻

I am LONG Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) as an event-driven trade. RCAT is a finalist (out of originally 37 vendors) for a nearly $500M U.S. Army drone contract that is currently multiples the size of its market cap. There’s plenty to be optimistic about on the company from a standalone basis but their probability of dethroning the current incumbent for this contract is favorable. I believe that should they win, the upside could be nearly +200% from today's prices. Have a look below for the PDF presentation where I walk you through the contract math and what the upside/downside scenarios are for the company. https://lnkd.in/enCcup2Z

📉 Domino's (DPZ) down 14% today and ~15% since I covered the name back in April. It's always nice when a thesis is proven right. On April 20th, I wrote a write-up on Domino's (DPZ) highlighting what I believed to be a fully priced in stock and that investing in it now had very little upside. The allocation of capital in this name would not be worth its time. There were a few reasons behind this but primarily it was driven by aggressive management expectations for growth that I did not believe were there. Original article (free): https://lnkd.in/eavGYv-f I provided both my logic and model output on valuation. Q1 earnings proved this as revenue fell short but margin expansion quickly helped the stock shoot past $500/share afterwards. I provided my updated thoughts via the thread below. https://lnkd.in/eAZ-EHAV Now with Q2 earnings being released, my thesis was true. The aggressive revenue expectations were not realistic and the stock is selling off today by ~14% to $408 a share. Proud that the work proved right and hopefully you all read it before what happened today happened. If you're interested in more of this work, please consider subscribing via the link below. www.cedargrovecm.com

As promised, I've released my research on $HIMS compounded GLP-1 business through the end of 2025. Given that the stock is up ~78% from post Q1'24 earnings, the market is heavily pricing in the new product offering despite earnings revisions not reflecting it. Thus, there's a lot to be open for interpretation. I break down scenarios on how the company would even be able to reach $1 billion in revenue (highly unlikely) but more importantly, the path to what I believe are realistic expectations for the business by EoY 2025. My projections incorporate assumptions for churn and growth for the various plans and discount factors that I believe are relevant. Very proud of this level of modeling I'm sharing with you all today and hope it adds value to your own thesis. https://lnkd.in/ds4Abjvj

“Unemployment never just goes up a little bit. It almost always goes up a lot a bit.” With the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.1% this past Friday, many are worried that this will eventually trigger the “Sahm Rule” which has an accurate history of predicting recessions. Many are now calling for the Fed to start lowering rates to avoid calamity. I dove into the rule, shared my thoughts on what history tells us, and even approached the rule at a more granular level. Click through to see what the data says. https://lnkd.in/e6G4Gyhy

Q2’24 Quarterly Letter is out now and the first since going paid. Sharing some thoughts on the broader market, an unforeseeable misstep, and of course, my positions and position commentary. Will have two more reports being released tomorrow and Wednesday morning. Enjoy! https://lnkd.in/eSduTyhi

As first disclosed on May 12th, I'm long Mama's Creations (MAMA). Under the helm of Adam Michaels, the company has proven its ability to produce high reinvestment ROIs and expand not only its product categories but also its penetration. While not the most "interesting" company out there, having nearly 4x its stock price over the last 2 years, I still expect the company to produce meaningful returns on its path to $1 billion in sales. If more of the same continues, MAMA could be worth over $10/share in the coming years. See why via our research below.

I occasionally share research in a quick chart form. Yesterday, I shared a chart on the absurd valuation that is $CAVA relative to peers. Even labeled as the "next Chipotle" $CMG, the valuation is at nosebleed levels implying either unbelievable growth or an unsustainable valuation. Click the link below and check it out for yourself. You'll be just as shocked as I was. 🔗: https://lnkd.in/eat-t5hZ

As first disclosed on May 12th, I'm long Hims & Hers Health $HIMS, and is currently my second largest holding (previously largest). After a 70% portfolio return since the end of March, I've released my research on the company in one of the most in-depth reports I've written to date. I believe there are 4 key pillars to the [continued] success of $HIMS with one I've noticed not many bulls having mentioned at all. These 4-pillars all cohesively come together to improve financial KPIs, margins, and growth at a time when differentiation in the market is key. I'm very bullish on the name and my reasoning/understanding comes from having worked for a competing company several years ago. My personal experience, having worked in the space, should hopefully shed new light and a different angle on how I analyze this opportunity that many others cannot attest to. Click the link below to access the research. 🔗: https://lnkd.in/e2RNxu33