Beacon Economics LLC

"There is no version of the future in which these trends are sustainable.” That comes from our (Beacon Economics LLC) new outlook for the U.S. economy and is referencing the nation's colossal Federal deficit AND overvalued asset markets that are driving excessively hot consumer spending. The near-term looks steady, but folks, we may be heading for a severe crisis by the end of this decade. View the new outlook here: https://lnkd.in/gawrnDdt

Beacon has published a new analysis that, for the first time, links a recent surge in youth unemployment in California to the state’s minimum wage hikes. The report finds that California’s recent, and peculiar, leap in unemployment is almost exclusively a young person problem, with 90% of the newly unemployed being under the age of 35 and the hardest hit group being teenagers. The study is the first deep investigation into this data and concludes that the wage floor in the state has been raised to a ‘tipping point’ where the effects are becoming clearly evident.    The analysis is able to refute other possible reasons for the state’s unemployment jump, narrowing in on the mandated wage hikes. The study also suggests that the consequences for youth are long term in nature and that the most vulnerable youth, including those from minority communities, suffer the most severe consequences.    Given that the state’s minimum wage is set to automatically increase with inflation, and given the November ballot measure to raise the base wage even further, this has become a progressively critical issue for California’s economy and population. View the full analysis here: https://lnkd.in/gz9qxykw

Biggest takeaways from Christopher Thornberg's presentation at the 2024 Real Estate Market Forecast... * US and CA economies are much stronger than many believe * Deeply inaccurate economic narratives are driving ugly politics * Even worse, these false narratives are driving poor policy choices * Big story of 2024: one very ugly election! https://lnkd.in/gTBJvtUq

 Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg talks with the Paper Trail Podcast about the troubling issue of public narratives straying from economic reality.

The 2024 Real Estate Economic Forecast is almost here! Join us for a deep dive into the trends, challenges, and opportunities shaping today's commercial real estate landscape. Founding partner Christopher Thornberg will be keynoting this pivotal gathering of real estate professionals, investors, and analysts on May 29. Hope to see you there! In partnership with the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, Coldwell Banker Town and Country, and California Baptist University.

A new commentary from Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg helps to pinpoint the reason why low consumer sentiment has persisted against an economy that is doing enviously well. Americans’ views of the U.S. economy have lost touch with the data reality and the commentary includes a statistical regression of consumer confidence to zero in on the specific reason why. Yup, it's inflation. Basically, we care a lot more about changes in the prices of things than about changes in the quantity of things we are actually consuming. https://lnkd.in/gAJxmVKV

Save the date! Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg will be presenting at Coldwell Banker Town & Country's 2024 Real Estate Market Forecast on May 29. Details coming soon! https://lnkd.in/g5yJuYVt

California is far from becoming the ‘failed state’ depicted by critics, and even a cursory look at the data proves it. Our new outlook for California finds that the state’s economy will continue to grow in the near future and there is little sign of a recession in 2024. What's more, real income (accounts for inflation) in the state has increased despite persistent claims to the contrary. https://lnkd.in/gjM8PXWR

"California has led the nation in proving that decarbonization is not only compatible with economic growth, it’s a natural complement." That's the first line in a compelling new op-ed by Beacon Research Manager Stafford Nichols and Next 10 Founder F. Noel Perry. The latest California Green Innovation Index found that emissions in the state rose post-pandemic and we now need to move even faster to cut our reliance on fossil fuels. #DontCutClimate @AirResources https://lnkd.in/gNRwP24M

The 15th annual California Green Innovation Index finds that the state must triple its rates of emissions reductions to hit its 2030 climate target. Join Next 10 and Beacon's Stafford Nichols and Emil Saban on 3/28 to hear more about the new findings and how the state can address the challenges ahead. https://lnkd.in/gqyc3ACD