Africa Center for Strategic Studies

Extremist violence in the Sahel is increasingly spilling over into coastal West African countries. Benin and Togo have been hardest hit, while Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana have seen violence 50 km beyond their borders in Burkina Faso nearly quadruple in the last 3 years. Our new Africa Security Brief looks at the elements necessary for a multitiered strategy to counter this threat.

Militant Islamist violence within 50 km of coastal West Africa’s borders has increased by more than 250% over the past 2 years. Forging a multitiered strategy—linking support to communities with regional and international bodies—would help contextualize local responses while sustaining regional cooperation to address the complex threat posed by violent extremist groups. Our new Africa Security Brief outlines what such a strategy would look like:

How can legislatures effectively allocate budgets and oversee security agencies while maintaining the secrecy needed to ensure the effective implementation of some security measures? "A major difficulty legislators face in considering and exercising oversight over security budgets is the defense budget’s secrecy. To circumvent this problem, I recommend that we draw lessons from South Korea, which has successfully managed the need for both confidentiality and transparency in the defense budget. They achieved this by splitting the security budget into three categories, depending on the degree of secrecy required. Category A budget items are presented to the entire National Assembly in aggregated form. Category B items are disaggregated and revealed without restrictions to the members of the National Assembly’s National Defense Committee. Category C items are further disaggregated and revealed to the National Defense Committee with certain restrictions. Such categorization enables the scrutiny of all aspects of the defense budget without compromising national security." —Dr. Abbas Tajudeen, Speaker of the House of Representatives of the Federal Republic of Nigeria

The framers of the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights foresaw scenarios where national courts would not handle cases involving abuse of executive power, and knew citizens would need an avenue of recourse after exhausting domestic mechanisms. The African Court on Human and Peoples' Rights was an effort to institutionalize norms and human rights standards for Africans: https://lnkd.in/ejrjjcss These norms and standards have come under renewed strain in recent years, with captured or co-opted national judiciaries proving the continued need for the Court. Judicial independence is critical to maintaining the impartiality and integrity of electoral commissions. When courts are co-opted, however, they can rubber-stamp illegalities, entrench impunity, and weaken other oversight institutions: https://lnkd.in/easiXu4i

While Sudan's military elites fight for power, they inflict immense suffering on their people, but the people's determination is even stronger. “I still believe democracy is coming,” [activist Mahmoud Abdirahman] said, a mural commemorating dead protesters on a wall behind him. “After the war, we will go back on the streets and fight the winner. And we will keep fighting until democracy wins.”

On the whole, Africans are undeniably pro-democracy. 66% prefer a democratic system of governance 80% reject one-man rule 78% reject one-party rule 66% reject military rule According to Afrobarometer's latest report, Africa suffers not from a lack of demand but a “supply-side failure by African leaders to deliver”. During the last ten years "significant regression in democratic systems has been recorded across Africa, especially in the areas of rule of law, justice, and democratic elections". But this contrasts with Africans' commitment to be governed in a more democratic and transparent environment.

Actors driving sophisticated disinformation attacks on African media ecosystems are taking advantage of the rapid expansion in the reach and accessibility of digital communications to reshape the continent’s information systems at scales and speeds not possible through traditional analog platforms. Disinformation campaigns have targeted every region of the continent. At least 39 African countries have been the target of a specific disinformation campaign. African countries experiencing conflict are subject to much greater levels of disinformation—facing a median of 5 campaigns–highlighting the connection between instability and disinformation.

The role of the army in a democracy is to ensure the defense of the territory, the protection of institutions, and an unconditional submission to the legitimate civilian political authority. Military coups may promise short-term gains in security, but they are always long-term losses for freedom, democracy, and security.

“[A] man from Sierra Leone wiped tears as he explained how he paid a recruiter and flew to Russia for a ‘good job’ to support his large family, but was tricked into joining the military.” “Using tactics first deployed by the Wagner mercenary group, Russian officials have with increasing frequency been threatening not to extend the visas of African students and young workers unless they agree to join the military.” According to the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence agency HUR: “Russia is reportedly offering a sign-up bonus of $2,000, monthly pay of $2,200 and the promise of a Russian passport. With Russia’s finite pool of convict recruitment likely culminated, Russia is likely expanding its recruitment across the global south, to avoid additional mobilizations within Russia itself.” … “Russia’s Africa Corps mercenaries, formerly known as the Wagner Group, are conducting training on the African continent with young men, some from tribal militias. The rebranded group, now under the Ministry of Defense’s direct control, also has increased outreach to African students. “Between 35,000 and 37,000 men and women from the continent are studying in Russia through various scholarship schemes, according to British online newspaper The Independent. The figures are expected to increase further with the Kremlin’s recent diplomatic offensive in parts of Africa.”

300 million Africans have come onto social media in the past 7 years. There are now more than 400 million active social media users and 600 million internet users on the continent. Africans who are online rely on social media platforms for consuming news at among the highest rates in the world. Social media users in Nigeria and Kenya are near the top of the globe in the number of hours per day spent on social platforms. They are simultaneously the countries that report the most concern about false and misleading information. The proliferation of disinformation is a fundamental challenge to stable and prosperous African societies. The scope of these intentional efforts to distort the information environment for a political end is accelerating. The 189 documented disinformation campaigns in Africa are nearly quadruple the number reported in 2022. (And given the opaque nature of disinformation, this figure is surely an undercount.) Russia continues to be the primary purveyor of disinformation in Africa, sponsoring 80 documented campaigns, targeting more than 22 countries. These campaigns have reached many millions of users through tens of thousands of coordinated fake pages and posts. Aggressively leveraging disinformation is a mainstay of Russia’s use of irregular channels to gain influence in Africa.