COVID is coming for California, and it's already hitting the Bay Area the hardest
According to the California Department of Public Health, the region now has the most viral wastewater than anywhere else in California.
According to the California Department of Public Health, the region now has the most viral wastewater than anywhere else in California.
If you or any of your friends have gotten sick with COVID-19 recently, you’re not the only ones: Case rates are rising in the Bay Area and the proof is in the pipes. According to the California Department of Public Health, the region now has the most viral wastewater than anywhere else in California.
In an email to SFGATE, Amanda Bidwell, a wastewater researcher and data analyst at Stanford, said that over the past 21 days “consistently high concentrations” of SARS-CoV-2 have been detected in wastewater samples collected across San Francisco.
“Currently we are seeing some of the highest concentrations we’ve ever measured” at these locations, Bidwell continued. And across San Francisco, the levels are approaching those last seen in December and January. Because individuals shed the virus before getting tested, this method of monitoring wastewater helps predict upcoming surges while including data from those who are asymptomatic.
Aside from San Francisco, as of June 11, data showed that COVID levels were also high in Vallejo; Novato; western Contra Costa County; Sausalito; Palo Alto; Sunnyvale; and San Jose. And the virus isn’t confined to just the Bay Area, either.
“Wastewater concentrations of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in San Francisco, as in many sites across California, have been increasing, which suggest that COVID-19 cases are increasing,” CDPH press representatives told SFGATE in a written statement.
It’s a trend that has played out in previous years. The San Francisco Department of Public Health told SFGATE that COVID cases have typically risen around late spring through late summer.
“Last year we saw a summer peak start in early July 2023, and it appears that this may be happening a little bit earlier this year compared to last year,” Bidwell told SFGATE via email.
Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious diseases specialist at UCSF, told SFGATE that reinfection is “almost like clockwork” — though it’s mostly biological, it’s also driven by human behavior.
Last August, the triple threat of summer travel, decreased immunity and debilitating heat waves led to a “swell” of COVID cases, he previously told SFGATE. Our antibodies decline after about four months, meaning that anyone who previously got sick in the winter will probably fall ill again around the summer.
“I think we will see an increase in cases, for sure,” Chin-Hong said. “I mean, we already have. … My prediction is that it will be lower than last year, just because we have more immunity. But that doesn’t mean that some people won’t get seriously ill.”
The prevalence of new variants, combined with graduation celebrations and international travel, is also likely contributing to the most recent rise in COVID wastewater levels, Chin-Hong explained. Fewer people are also getting the latest vaccines: Just 14% of California’s population has received an up-to-date dose, CDPH data shows, indicating that there’s less immunity overall.
To stay protected, Chin-Hong recommends getting the latest vaccine, packing a mask for upcoming trips, and monitoring COVID levels in any areas you plan on traveling to. Those who are especially immunocompromised can also look into requesting Paxlovid in advance, he continued.
“Staying up to date on vaccination is the best way to protect against severe COVID-19,” the SFDPH wrote. “We encourage people to ask their healthcare provider or visit vaccines.gov to find a vaccine near them.”
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