Think tank predicts record number of ethnic minority MPs as well as minor increase in gender diversity.

According to a new study published by the think tank British Future…, the 2024 general election is projected to elect a record number of ethnic minority MPs, increasing from 65 to more than 85, with a potential range of 88 to 100 MPs from ethnic minorities. This would result in the largest group of new ethnic minority MPs ever entering the House of Commons at a single election, with a net gain of at least 20 MPs.

The ethnic diversity of MPs will rise from 10% to around 14%, reflecting the ethnic composition of the electorate. Gender diversity, however, will see a smaller increase, with the percentage of female MPs expected to rise from 35% to between 37% and 42%, a missed opportunity for more significant progress. This highlights the need for continued efforts to achieve gender parity in parliament.

The selection process within political parties at both local and national levels significantly impacts the diversity of candidates. It finds that a record number of candidates identified as ethnic minority are running for office. The Labour Party has the most ethnic minority candidates, followed by the Conservatives. The increases can be seen in Figure Nine from the report. Even though female candidate representation has also increased for almost all parties, the numbers are not yet reflecting the gender balance of the general public. (Figure Ten)

The report makes the following recommendations to ensure candidates are representative of the general public in the years to come:

• Collect better data: The report emphasizes the need for comprehensive data collection to inform policy and party practices, noting that the House of Commons currently lacks ethnicity data on MPs and candidates due to the subjective nature of ethnic identification. It recommends that parliament and major political parties collect and publish data on social class, social mobility, and protected characteristics, including candidate selections and the composition of party staff, to better understand and address representation challenges.
• Understand the barriers that stop people coming forward as candidates: The report recommends that the Electoral Commission investigate barriers preventing people from diverse backgrounds from becoming candidates, such as time, caring responsibilities, financial costs, and candidate abuse. Additionally, it should assess the impact of prior council experience, as nearly 40% of MPs are expected to have been councillors, to inform strategies for improving equal representation in parliament.
• Re-establish a Speaker’s Convention as a basis for action: The report suggests re-establishing a Speaker’s Convention on parliamentary representation to address concerns about stalled or regressed gender balance in selections. This cross-party process would explore progress and barriers, providing a forum for debate and identifying actionable steps across parliament and within specific parties.
• Promotion and outreach: The report recommends that parliament increase publicity for existing parliamentary placements and apprenticeship schemes among under-represented groups and encourage MPs to visit local secondary schools and FE colleges to engage with young people. Additionally, political parties should invest in and review outreach and training programs for aspiring councillors, MLAs, MSs, MSPs, and MPs.
• Local and national party culture: The report recommends that parliament increase publicity for existing parliamentary placements and apprenticeship schemes among under-represented groups and encourage MPs to visit local secondary schools and Further Education colleges to engage with young people. Additionally, political parties should invest in and review outreach and training programs for aspiring councillors, MLAs, MSs, MSPs, and MPs.
• Reduce last minute candidate selections: The report criticizes Labour and the Conservatives for imposing candidates or presenting single-candidate shortlists to local parties, often filling vacancies at the last minute despite months of unfilled seats. While some last-minute selections are unavoidable, this practice negatively impacts fair chances for aspiring candidates without insider networks and poses reputational risks for parties in an era of increased scrutiny and transparency.

Background

The study uses projections made using a universal swing model, adjusted for boundary changes and local election results. Six election outcome scenarios were considered to estimate the distribution of seats. British Future… is an independent, non-partisan thinktank and registered charity, engaging people’s hopes and fears about integration and immigration, identity and race.