Editorial: Taoiseach Simon Harris faces a test of nerve – and judgment

But we live in extraordinarily challenging times, the volatility around which is threatening the stability of politics in Ireland, throughout Europe and the wider world. A wiser course of action would be for Mr Harris and other Coalition leaders to keep their options open on the timing of a general election. The Government will be buoyed by recent opinion polls that indicate the possibility of its re-election are improved.

These polls also show a notable fall in support for the main opposition party, Sinn Féin, and a consequent strengthening in support for Independent TDs and candidates, particularly from the more extreme end of the political spectrum.

The boost in support for the Independents and candidates taking a hardline view on immigration is posing difficult questions for government and other mainstream parties occupying the centre ground. To date, and to their credit, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, the Greens, Labour and the Social Democrats, in particular, have maintained a moderate position on this issue in the face of what has been, at times, a challenging public reaction.

Sinn Féin, meanwhile, is losing ground primarily to Independents, who are getting the backing of a growing proportion of the public either staunchly opposed to immigration or dissatisfied with the Government’s handling of the issue.

In recent weeks, this volatility has sometimes threatened to boil over in protest, with an element of menace evident towards certain moderate candidates, supporters or election workers.

In three weeks’ time, the country will go to the polls to elect councillors and MEPs, the results of which will give a fair indication as to the mood of the public and might also ease some of the tension developed around immigration.

The Taoiseach is a relatively short time in office, but has shown willingness to grapple with issues posed by increased immigration, including the removal of tented accommodation in parts of Dublin.

The Coalition is also taking measures to curb costs associated with immigration, which might reduce the numbers arriving while still meeting the country’s obligations.

In recent years, Fine Gael taoisigh have faced the same decision that now confronts Mr Harris: when to call a general election. There are other issues facing the country too, not least the provision of housing, which the Coalition believes will be further improved by February. There are many considerations, not least the need for stable government for a further five years. It would be prudent, therefore, for Mr Harris and the other coalition leaders to keep an open mind on when to seek a new mandate.

His predecessor, Leo Varadkar, regretted going to the country in February 2020, when waiting until later that year would have given him a better result. Mr Harris’s political future depends on him not making a similar error of judgment.