At 8:30 a.m. PST on Wednesday morning, the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences will reveal its nominees for the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards, which were chosen by its 22,000 voting members, hailing from 31 “peer groups,” during the nominations voting period that spanned June 13 through June 24. Below, you can find my final projections for what or who will be nominated in 33 of the highest-profile categories. The TV Academy will, in fact, announce nominees for 124 categories, more of which I will be adding to the forecast in the coming weeks.

Last year, the Emmy nominations leader among platforms was HBO/Max (with 127) and among programs was HBO/Max’s drama series Succession (with 27), in its final season of eligibility. This year, my guess is that Netflix, with its glut of highly consumed contenders across the categories — particularly its limited series Baby Reindeer and Ripley — is poised to reclaim the title of platform leader, which it secured for the first time in 2018 and again in 2020.

But don’t underestimate FX, which will be propelled to a high tally by its rookie drama series Shōgun and the sophomore season of its comedy series The Bear, both of which will be among the most nominated programs; or HBO/Max, which should see a strong showing from its returning comedy series Hacks, drama series The Gilded Age and limited/anthology series True Detective, as well as its formidable slate of nonfiction and variety series, most notably Last Week Tonight With John Oliver.

Be sure to check back after the announcement for my in-depth analysis of the TV Academy’s picks!

Please note: Think of Scott like a meteorologist — his aim with the forecast is to correctly predict what will happen, not to advocate for what he thinks should happen. His picks are arrived at by sampling contenders, consulting voters, analyzing campaigns and studying the results of past Emmy seasons.

Exciting news: Check out our new-and-improved charts! You can click on category-headers to reshuffle the titles and discover which shows in each field have the highest or lowest Rotten Tomatoes scores, which platforms have the most contenders, and more. Also, you can bookmark this URL and return to it any time to see Scott’s latest picks.