A just transition from climate crisis for vulnerable countries

They lack sufficient development resources, finance or adequate mechanisms in the case of tackling debts—which further get complicated by their structural economic, social, and environmental challenges. Without self-support to absorb external shocks and adverse effects of the climate crisis, these countries need special assistance in climate resilience-building. In this context, climate justice problematises climate efforts through the inclusion of several issues of resilience and adaptation faced by those who cannot afford it against those who can. The transition also calls for addressing the challenges through a multidimensional approach to include all aspects of sustainable development, i.e., economic, social and environmental.

They often suffer from being at the receiving end of the international community’s goodwill, whose pledges/commitments to development assistance do not reflect their needs and priorities to protect ecosystems such as coral reefs, coastal wetlands, rainforests, and polar and mountain ecosystems. For these countries, the common but differentiated responsibility principle will not work positively without substantial implementation of commitments in a time-bound manner. However, the goal of major emitting countries to generate $100 billion per year by 2020 has not become a reality. At the COP28 in Doha, Samoa, representing Small Island Developing States (SIDS) appealed international community, “We need to be bold in our actions”. The transition is delayed due to the slow pace of climate negotiations and implementation – which are major concerns for communities vulnerable to the climate crisis.

The climate crisis solutions, thus, have to be understood in an inclusive framework that designs and implements climate actions after the needs and priorities of vulnerable communities. The 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), states that vulnerable communities are ‘disproportionately’ affected by the climate crisis despite being the least historical contributors to it.

For positive climate outcomes, robust steps for the implementation of pledges should be in place before the next COP29. These countries have been disappointed with the unsatisfactory outcomes of all previous COPs and by the lack of substantial climate actions to keep the 1.5 ℃ limit. At COP28 in Dubai, they welcomed the adoption and operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund and the establishment of the first Global Stocktake. Stocktake, in efforts to support vulnerable countries, identifies the gaps between climate actions and where we stand in meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. It takes into cognisance in stacking up climate funds towards climate action and climate-resilient development.

The international community already has given SIDS, Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) the recognition of a special case for sustainable development, which constitutes an essential element for the Convention and the Paris Agreement. Samoa demanded collective action and deliverance on the Sharm el-Sheikh Implementation Plan and Glasgow Climate Pact. The Sharm el-Sheikh emphasises taking climate actions in harmony with the values of ‘climate justice’, i.e., climate actions implemented in a just and inclusive manner with efforts to reduce negative social or economic impacts from climate action. It gives priority to food security and eradicates poverty, safeguarding food production systems and ecosystems from adverse impacts of the climate crisis. It recognises the special support to the poorest and most vulnerable nations based on their national circumstances towards a just transition. The Glasgow Climate Pact reaffirmed the $100 billion climate finance flow annually from developed to developing countries and the principle of loss and damage.

The expectation from the implementation of policies falls short of the promises made in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) of several countries. The emission gaps also suggest crossing the 1.5 ℃ global temperature limit. To achieve the 1.5 ℃ limit, a 43% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 to the 2019 level is the target. Countries, thus, require to rapidly phase down unabated coal power as well as inefficient subsidies for fossil fuel, and switch to low-emission energy systems, for instance, clean power generation. They have to accelerate climate actions in this critical decade keeping the notion of equity, common but differentiated responsibilities while acknowledging the different capabilities of countries. Developed countries should scale up their climate finance, technology transfer and capacity-building for adaptation to accommodate the requirements of developing countries. Their pledges to two climate funding tools, the Least Developed Countries Fund and the Special Climate Change Fund are significant to support climate actions by developing countries. The Loss and Damage Fund rekindled the hopes of vulnerable communities to particularly cover the economic and non-economic losses—forced displacement and impacts on cultural heritage, human mobility and the lives and livelihoods of local communities. The loss and damage can generate debt burdens in these countries, and affect their efforts to achieve SDGs. Samoa sends, thus, a strong message to national governments that SIDS require a sturdy political declaration to Global Stocktake. In COP28, Micronesia calls out world leaders, especially larger emitters to “stop” new fossil fuel extraction, “stop” excessive consumption and methane emissions, and “start” taking a larger responsibility for their actions in past and to continue until the world is safe. They assert that Global Stocktake cannot become a mere exercise to compile technical papers; governments must commit to it to strengthen and guarantee the comprehensive implementation of the Paris Agreement.

Vulnerable regions like sub-Saharan Africa and Micronesia with high susceptibility depend on strong climate finance via several sources including public or private finance or financial support from developed countries through multilateral development banks and international financial institutions or voluntary individual initiatives. Financial instruments considering debt conditions and different development parameters in these countries are prerequisites. Access to adequate financial resources through international cooperation will provide these regions with efficient adaptation and mitigation options. In this regard, Bangladesh is going to host the NAP Expo 2024 to collaborate on implementing adaptation actions through an exchange of experiences to strengthen the resilience and capacity of poor countries like LDCs. At the COP28, new financial commitments from eight countries were made to the LDC Fund and Special Climate Change crisis Fund amounting to $174 million, and another set of new commitments amounting to $188 million were made to the Adaptation Fund; funds should be released urgently so that actions can be taken before the next COP summit.

Climate cooperation in the transition to sustainability for these countries also means easy and equitable access to technology—developed, transferred, and deployed aligning with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Another issue to avoid is maladaptation that develops due to climate actions concentrating on short-term gains taking risks and sectors in isolation, according to the IPCC report Climate Change 2023. Seawalls, for instance, reduce social impacts in the short term but can pose long-term exposure to climate risks. The report states that maladaptation can exacerbate inequities for Indigenous Peoples and marginalised groups while decreasing ecosystem and biodiversity resilience. It recommends an adaptation that focuses on “flexible, multi-sectoral, inclusive, long-term planning and implementation of adaptation actions, with co-benefits to many sectors and systems”.

Another major 1.5 ℃ pathway is to harness the strengths of non-party stakeholders such as businesses and civil society. Inclusivity and just transition to prevent catastrophes also require collaboration with these non-state actors for their insights on climate solutions. Thus, hopes are running high from the recently launched implementation roadmap of 2030 Climate Solutions. Without implementing the current pledges or climate initiatives there can be no real amelioration for vulnerable countries. The Santiago network, established at COP25, should be given a boost and improvement acknowledging the recent changes in the international economy and geopolitics in the past few years. It supports vulnerable countries to avert, minimise and address loss and damage at the local, national and regional levels. Multilateral cooperation and collaboration are critical to garner international support to prepare and implement national adaptation plans for vulnerable countries.

This article is authored by Mehdi Hussain, former assistant professor, department of political science, Kirori Mal College, University of Delhi.