Rise of far-right in Paris will echo across Europe
Much more is at stake than Macron’s political future as the outcome of the polls could also influence European integration and support for Ukraine in its dragging war with Russia.
The evaporation of French President Emmanuel Macron’s political fortunes in recent weeks has been as spectacular as his rise seven years ago on the back of a centrist movement. Even Macron’s closest aides are now questioning his bewildering and sudden decision to call an election ahead of schedule after the far-right National Rally defeated his Ensemble alliance in European parliamentary elections. The National Rally won 34% of the votes in the first round of the election, while the left-wing New Popular Front coalition bagged about 29% and the Ensemble alliance 20.5%. The National Rally and its allies were in the lead or elected in 297 seats of the 577-member National Assembly, while Macron’s alliance was in the lead or elected in just 69 seats and set to lose many of the 250 seats it has held since 2022. The far-right’s strong showing may help it gather more support during the second round of voting on July 7.
If these trends continue during the second round of polling, the outcome could be a National Assembly divided between the far-right and the left, leaving Macron hamstrung and ineffective for the remaining three years of his final term. If the far-right continues to advance, Macron will be the first French president in more than two decades to contend with “cohabitation”, or having to work with a prime minister from a rival party or alliance.
The National Rally’s surge has been welcomed by other right wing forces in Europe, such as Hungary’s Russia-friendly prime minister, Viktor Orban. In recent years, Macron has worked to forge greater unity in Europe to cope with the challenges posed by Russia and China. Clearly, much more is at stake than Macron’s political future as the outcome of the polls could also influence European integration and support for Ukraine in its dragging war with Russia.
