Low turnout in Tehran reflects a political crisis

Iran’s presidential election, necessitated by the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May, has been marred, like most recent polls in that country, by a record low turnout that reflects growing voter apathy. It also ended in a stalemate, with a run-off announced for July 5 to let voters decide between hardliner Saeed Jalili and reformist Masoud Pezeshkian. Just 40% of more than 61 million eligible voters cast their ballots, the lowest turnout in presidential elections in more than four decades. This growing disinterest among voters has shown up the frailties of an electoral system that weeds out perceived reformists or dissenters.

The clergy’s bid to firewall the hardline Islamic polity from any liberal incursion is undermining Iran’s political democracy, with a large segment of the population staying away from elections since their voices are not allowed to even feature in the contest. This disillusionment has grown since the widespread protests triggered by the September 2022 death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old arrested for violating the strict dress rule for women, did not lead to anticipated reforms. A higher turnout in the run-off could benefit Pezeshkian, who was marginally ahead of Jalili in Sunday’s election.

No matter who wins the run-off, he will have a tough task dealing with challenges such as an inflation rate of more than 40%, strained relations with the West, reviving the Iranian nuclear deal and finding a way out of crippling sanctions. Even here, the Iranian president’s options are limited as most decisions are left to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. While India must be prepared to continue engaging with the Iranian leadership to secure its strategic interests across the region, this election should serve as a wake-up call for the Supreme Leader and his aides about the need for change.