Priyanka Gandhi's candidature in Wayanad could strengthen the Congress's position in Kerala Assembly bypolls

K Muraleedharan, senior Congress leader and son of former Kerala chief minister K Karunakaran said, “By winning 18 of the 20 Lok Sabha seats in the recent general elections, it is clear that the trend is in favour of the Congress-led United Democratic Front. We are working to ensure Priyanka Gandhi wins by a higher majority than Rahul Gandhi and to wrest Chelakkara from the CPM.”

The current Leader of the Opposition (LoP) Rahul Gandhi won the Wayanad Lok Sabha seat with a margin of over 3.6 lakh votes against the runner-up Annie Raja, who contested on a Communist Party of India (CPI) ticket. In his second win from the constituency, Gandhi secured 6,47,445 votes, a tad lower than the 7,06,367 votes he got in the previous general election in 2019. Scoring such a victory, Rahul Gandhi has won more votes than his father and former Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi.

Impact on the by-elections

The Congress would look to retain Palakkad from the two assembly constituencies, though it would be a tight contest between the Congress and the BJP. Palakkad is the only city where the BJP controls the municipality and its candidate C Krishna Kumar, also the general secretary, put up a good fight in the 2021 assembly elections. However, the panchayats, where a majority of Muslims live, are still controlled by the Congress.

KA Shaji, a Kerala-based writer and political analyst said, “For both parties, Palakkad is a matter of prestige. Having won the parliamentary seat in neighbouring Thrissur, a win in Palakkad would give the BJP its first assembly seat in the 140-member house. For Congress, defending the seat would indicate that they continue to consolidate the Muslim votes from the CPM once again in the state.” However, Shaji and other analysts say the victory and the margin depend on who is chosen to fight the election. While a Muslim candidate could help wean votes from the CPM, it would assist the BJP in consolidating the Hindu votes.

Party leaders in the state told HT that Priyanka Gandhi showed a keen interest in picking the candidates for the by-election.

In Chelakkera, part of Kozhikode or Calicut district, a win here would be handing the CPM a humiliating defeat. Chelakkera is part of the Alathur parliamentary constituency and both are reserved constituencies. Ramya Haridas, one of the Congress’ youngest candidates was defeated by CPM Radhakrishnan supposedly because of an internal revolt by the Congress cadre. “We are looking at correcting some of those minor misunderstandings within the party and winning the seat that the CPM has held since 1996. There is a strong anti-incumbency wave against the CPM and if we can get the backward classes to vote for us, we will be able to retain the seat,” said Muralidharan.

Precursor to 2026 assembly polls

Priyanka Gandhi is understood to have visited Wayanad and Kerala more often than her brother in the last five years and single-handedly organised many rallies for the party in the state. The by-election results will have a bearing on the assembly elections due in 2026, Congress leaders told HT. A successful run in all three seats could also mean Priyanka being named Kerala in-charge to oversee the state’s assembly polls.

“The Congress has regained its fighting spirit after winning 99 seats in the recently concluded general elections. Priyanka Gandhi is popular across Kerala because the locals see her in her grandmother and former PM Indira Gandhi’s image. More importantly, she is seen to be playing a larger role nationally in the party and her presence will help consolidate all the anti-BJP votes,” said a central Kerala Congress MP who did not wish to be named.

Mrs Gandhi’s independent visits to be part of the protests of the Adani-run Vizhinjam port near Thiruvananthapuram where she fought for fishermen’s rights was well-noticed by the locals and could help draw Dalit and Christian votes away from the BJP. Votes from these communities went to the BJP after its successful subaltern Hindutva experiment. Also, Priyanka’s campaign themes during the general election revolved around the economic situation in Kerala and the issues the local farming community faced because of farm hands from Bihar and West Bengal. “Priyanka’s raising the issues and not targeting the chief minister spared her from sharp attacks by the CPM, unlike Rahul Gandhi who called for chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s arrest while addressing voters in his Calicut rally,” Shaji added.

“Priyanka is a far greater crowd puller than Rahul Gandhi. While she always campaigned alongside her brother, winning the assembly elections in 2026 will propel her position higher in the party as someone who can command electoral wins. It will also help her come out of her brother’s shadow,” said the senior Congress MP quoted above.

Deepika Amirapu is a freelance journalist based in Hyderabad.