Four games that will decide if Dabo Swinney, Clemson make 12-team College Football Playoff in 2024

CLEMSON – Clemson football capped off 2023 by defeating Kentucky 38-35 in the Gator Bowl to conclude the season on a five-game win streak.

The Tigers (9-4) created optimism, but it was still a down year for coach Dabo Swinney's team. Clemson had its fewest wins since 2010 and missed the ACC championship and the College Football Playoff for the third consecutive season.

Clemson began last season with a 4-4 record, losing to Duke by 21 points in the opener and dropping one-possession games to Florida State, NC State and Miami. If the Tigers had won those close games, they could've made the conference championship and had a shot at the playoffs.

As the Tigers prepare for the 2024 season, here’s a look at which games could be the difference between making and missing the College Football Playoff in Swinney's 16th season.

Clemson football schedule 2024: Expected results

Before getting into the key games, here are the expected results for Clemson.

The Tigers should defeat Appalachian State, Stanford, Virginia and The Citadel at home and Wake Forest, Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh on the road. If they lose any of those games, they will have little margin of error to the 12-team playoffs.

Clemson won the Palmetto Bowl against South Carolina in Columbia last season, and Swinney's team should win again this year at Memorial Stadium and with the Gamecocks losing key players.

Aug. 31 vs. Georgia (neutral)

Georgia is expected to win the SEC and to win the national championship, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. The Bulldogs missed the College Football Playoff after falling to Alabama in the SEC championship game and took their frustration out on Florida State in a 63-3 victory at the Orange Bowl.

Clemson will open its season against the Bulldogs on Aug. 31 (ESPN, noon ET) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. It will be a major test for the Tigers, battling a motivated and highly regarded Georgia team. DraftKings Sportsbook has Clemson as a 13.5-point underdog, but if the Tigers manage to take this game, they will have a quality win.

PROJECTIONS:How many wins ESPN predicts for Clemson football, Dabo Swinney in 2024 season

Sept. 21 vs. NC State

The Wolfpack finished third in the ACC and hope to be better with the best quarterback they' had've had in years in Grayson McCall. The Coastal Carolina transfer enters his sixth season in college football having thrown for more than 10,000 yards with a near 70% career completion percentage.

Clemson will come off an open week to start conference play at home vs. NC State, which beat the Tigers 24-17 last season and has won two of their past three matchups. This game will have huge ramifications for conference seeding, especially since there are no more divisions.

Oct. 5 at Florida State

The must-see matchup for Clemson in the regular season will be with the Seminoles. ESPN’s Football Power Index projects one of these two teams will take the ACC and land an automatic bye in the College Football Playoff. FSU defeated the Tigers 31-24 last season on its way to an undefeated regular season and conference title.

This game also will mark the first time that quarterback DJ Uiagalelei will face his former team. Cade Klubnik replaced him as starter in 2022, which led to Uiagalelei transferring to Oregon State in 2023. He transferred to FSU in January.

Nov. 2 vs. Louisville

First-year coach Jeff Brohm led the Cardinals to their first ACC championship and their first 10-win season since joining the conference in 2014. He had immense success with quarterback Jack Plummer and brought in Tyler Shough, who spent three seasons each at Oregon and Texas Tech.

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Louisville has the third-best chance of winning the conference. If it defeats Clemson, it will improve its chances of returning to back-to-back ACC championships. Still, the Tigers are 8-0 against the Cardinals all time, with their latest victory coming in 2022.

Derrian Carter covers Clemson athletics for The Greenville News and the USA TODAY Network. Email him at dcarter@gannett.com and follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @DerrianCarter00