It can be hard to read the temperature in the middle of a political storm, especially when the person at the centre of it doesn't really seem to accept it's happening. After 48 hours in which he was deserted by loyalists and new allies alike, Boris Johnson's smoke-and-mirrors premiership finally came to an end today with the Prime Minister delivering a resignation speech in which he notably avoided use of the word resign itself.
After a steady stream of scandals that has dogged the Conservative party for months, it was the revelation that Johnson had failed to act against Tory Whip Chris Pincher, despite being repeatedly made aware of sexual assault allegations against him, that finally signalled the end. On Tuesday cabinet members Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javid issued joint resignations, and quickly it became clear this was the scandal Johnson could not wriggle out of.
Given the turbulent nature of global politics in recent years, it's difficult to guess what might happen next. Nevertheless, we asked three leading political commentators to try.
“The ultimate irony is that leave doesn't mean leave” – James O'Brien, broadcaster and political commentator
The Downing Street parties was the really big one for people calling in [to my radio show]. That was the point at which Johnson's situation became unsalvageable, because people were burying their families on Zoom and [politicians] were having parties. And now, a resignation speech with not a single syllable of apology, regret or contrition. No reference to the reasons why unprecedented numbers of ministers and colleagues will no longer put up with him, and no mention of the word resign.
Dominic Cummings has suggested – and even a stopped clock is right twice a day – that Johnson will be hoping something comes up to knock the gloss off of the scandal or change the facts. In his mad brain, there’ll still be the possibility he can find an escape route back to being Prime Minister. There’s no ultimatum to lay down to appoint a different caretaker, because it’s an appeal to decency, which is an absolute waste of time in Boris Johnson’s case. And there’s no requirement to call a general election because it’s a parliamentary democracy in the UK, not a presidential one. In terms of the fear that he would call one as a way of bypassing the parliamentary party, nothing is off the table with Johnson when it comes to depraved behaviour or overweening self-interest, but I think that particular door is probably one he couldn’t unlock.
My favourite analogy today is arson. The house is no longer on fire, the flames have been extinguished, and at 11 o’clock this morning you thought the arsonist would be carted away in a police van. But it turns out the arsonist is going to carry on living in the charred wreckage of the house that he’s torched. The ultimate irony is in the final days of Boris Johnson’s Brexit-based premiership, leave doesn’t mean leave.
“It’s been a pretty squalid episode” – Ian McEwan, novelist
All the hangers-on and bag-carriers and people in Johnson's cabinet who played along until it became rational to resign – it reminded me of the run on toilet paper. It starts as a small thing and as it gathers pace it becomes rational to dash out to the supermarket yourself. There was a stampede for the exit, but it all came so late that to pretend that these were principled resignations is just cynical nonsense. The press that supported Johnson and laughed off his minor corruptions: they also rushed for the toilet paper counter as soon as they understood their readers were beginning to be revolted by the whole thing. It’s been a pretty squalid episode, I don’t feel much triumph in it.
Johnson is a man with a certain kind of animal charm, ebullience and vagueness with the truth, that, in another walk of life could be charming, but makes him completely unsuited to the job. The Conservative associations will choose another: Sunak or Javid or someone from high finance. I don’t think Sunak is much committed to climate change and that dismays me.
There will be handouts to soften up the electorate but there’s not much more space to [move to] the right. For Johnson to claim the government’s backing of Ukraine was all down to him was ludicrous and there’s no reason that wouldn’t continue because the opposition are for it. To run a government now without any major or minor scandals will be seen as a triumph: the bar is very low.
“Never interrupt your enemy when he’s making a mistake” – Ash Sarkar, political journalist and commentator
Everyone who has resigned, and almost everybody who is queuing up to do broadcast rounds or write articles, is talking about how undignified this is of Boris Johnson – how shocking and appalling his behaviour has been. But they all knew exactly who he was when they helped him get into power. There’s absolutely nothing that can compensate for the unsuitability of a leader, even with an eighty-seat majority. You can’t even say there weren’t any red flags: Boris Johnson has never succeeded in any job he’s had, apart from in furthering his own personal ambition.
As for Labour, there’s the old adage of never interrupting your enemy when he’s making a mistake: nothing unifies the Tory party like the sense the opposition is on the move. This is a time when most oppositions would say: “Sit down and eat your popcorn along with everybody else.”
Right now, it looks as though Keir Starmer emerges as the country’s premier statesman by default. If he gets that fixed penalty notice from Durham Police – because he promised to resign if [that happens] – that all goes away. This is a Labour leadership who has decided that the dividing line between itself and the Conservatives is style of governance, but if Durham Police decide to turn around and hit the big red button of chaos and issue that fixed penalty notice, that distance suddenly collapses.