The 59th Academy of Country Music Awards are behind us. The show featured some surprise winners amidst expected victories for artists like Lainey Wilson and Luke Combs. As the first major country awards precursor of the year, some of the winners might strike a chord with Grammy voters.
Chris Stapleton‘s “Higher” might be coming
One of the show’s biggest wins was “Higher” claiming Album of the Year. The record faced off against Morgan Wallen’s ginormous hit “One Thing at a Time,” the follow-up to his also-huge “Dangerous: The Double Album.” Wallen looked like a strong contender, not only due to his commercial numbers, but because “Dangerous” had previously taken the award home, which was significant considering that it came amidst Morgan’s industry backlash for using a racial slur. As such, an even more successful album with Wallen’s somewhat rehabilitated image seemed like a recipe for another victory. So Stapleton’s win shouldn’t be taken lightly. Plus, “Higher” is arguably Stapleton’s least successful album since his solo breakout, but voters loved it regardless.
So what does this mean for the Grammy race? While he won’t be facing his ACM rivals there (they were all already eligible to compete in 2024), Stapleton may have to face a potentially dominant contender: Beyoncé’s “Cowboy Carter.” If the industry is truly on Stapleton’s side, then Beyoncé might have to prepare herself for a real duel, or just saddle up and submit to another category (Best Americana Album, most likely). It also doesn’t help Bey’s case that Stapleton is even more consistent at the Grammys than he is at the ACMs and CMAs. Plus, with Beyoncé not appearing at these country-based award shows, voters in that field at the Grammys might be less enthusiastic to award her than her usual pop-R&B audience will be.
Best New Artist hopefuls
This year the awards for New Female Artist and New Male Artist of the Year went to breakouts Megan Moroney and Nate Smith. So when discussing Grammy contenders for Best New Artist, you might want to keep them top of mind. Moroney’s breakout hit was “Tennessee Orange,” which peaked in the top five of the Country Airplay charts. Smith has done even better, notching two country radio chart-toppers already (“World on Fire” and “Whiskey on You”), with a third hit steadily rising (“Bulletproof”). Previous ACM New Artist winners like Jimmie Allen, Maren Morris, Kelsea Ballerini and Luke Combs all went on to Grammy nominations. If Smith and Moroney keep their momentum going with a couple more hits, nominations might be even more likely.
Hype for Dan and Shay
The country duo aren’t new to the awards circuit, but their track record of nominations and wins stalled a bit in the past few years. Voters were, instead, rewarding the brotherly duo Brothers Osborne, helped by their pro-LGBTQIA+ activism and acclaimed output. However, at this ACM show, Dan and Shay were able to retake the crown for Duo of the Year, an award they had not won since 2021. Coming up this fall are the CMAs, where the duo might once again win. If so, expect them to nab a Grammy nomination for Best Country Duo/Group Performance, a category they’ve actually won three times in the past.
Post Malone, Noah Kahan and Dua Lipa eye the country categories
The ACMs always have some pop stars making cameos, but this time a few caught my eye. Americana-pop star Noah Kahan performed his hit “Stick Season” in a medley with Kelsea Ballerini’s “Mountain with a View.” Kahan has been making a push into country/Americana spheres since his earlier success and recognition were concentrated more in the pop world than in genre communities. It seems to be working, as he recently got an Americana Honors nomination for Artist of the Year. Perhaps this ACM performance is the start of a push for country music recognition, especially at the Grammys, where he will likely submit his Kacey Musgraves-assisted “She Calls Me Back” remix for Best Country Duo/Group Performance.
There’s also Post Malone, who has been making a country-Americana pivot lately, first in the Americana world on Kahan’s remix of “Dial Drunk.” Malone is eyeing country recognition now with his Morgan Wallen-featured hit “I Had Some Help” already being number-one on country radio and the Billboard Hot 100. He performed that hit, alongside a new song from his upcoming country album, at the ACMs, making sure the industry is aware of his commitment to being a full-on country star now. Can Malone ride the success all the way to the Grammys, where “I Had Some Help” would give both him and Wallen their first win.
Last but not least, Dua Lipa performed a duet of Chris Stapleton’s “Think I’m in Love with You.” Lipa and Stapleton officially released the collab, so you might expect the song to be a possible contender for Best Country Duo/Group Performance.
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