Why Germany’s far right sees local election victory as the first of many

Good morning. Russian warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin yesterday claimed that he never intended to overthrow the country’s government, but his armed insurrection-not-insurrection against president Vladimir Putin’s armed forces continues to reverberate. Western officials told the Financial Times they’re exploring contingency plans for increased Kremlin instability — and what that could mean for the world’s largest nuclear arsenal.

Today, our Berlin bureau chief explains why the German far right reckons that its victory in district elections is an irrepressible step on the way to national power. And the Dutch finance minister tells my Brussels colleague that a stronger European Commission is needed to ensure the EU can handle more members, including Ukraine.

Tearing down the firewall

Buoyed by its sensational victory in German district elections, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) now believes it’s on course to win big in three regional elections in east Germany next year — and that the other parties will ultimately have to let it enter government, writes Guy Chazan.

Alice Weidel, AfD leader, told the FT she expected the AfD to come first in all three state elections in Thuringia, Brandenburg and Saxony. “And on the basis of that we will claim the leadership role that befits us,” she said.

Context: on Sunday, Robert Sesselman made history by being elected the first AfD Landrat — equivalent to the head of a county council — in the eastern German municipality of Sonneberg. He beat the Christian Democrat (CDU) incumbent Jürgen Köpper, even though he was backed by nearly all the other parties, united in an anything-but-the-AfD coalition.

That is typical of the cordon sanitaire — or “firewall”, in Berlin parlance — that parties like the CDU, the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the liberal FDP have erected between themselves and the AfD, a rightwing radical party that Green leader Ricarda Lang yesterday called a “danger to democracy”.

It is because of that firewall that the AfD is unlikely ever to achieve real power: No one will form a coalition with it. But recent polls have placed the AfD ahead of chancellor Olaf Scholz’ SPD.

Weidel told the FT the firewall “is not sustainable”, particularly in the CDU. Christian Democrats throughout the eastern states of Germany would like to work with the AfD, she said, but couldn’t because of the national leadership’s blanket ban.

There are signs, though, that it is beginning to disintegrate. “There are already informal talks between CDU and AfD in the east,” Weidel said. “We are communicating with each other — albeit on a low level.”

That is borne out by independent experts. “The AfD is becoming normalised,” said Denis Cohen, an expert on populism at Mannheim University. “On the local level at least, the firewall is crumbling.”

Chart du jour: Packed

European prisons are increasingly at capacity, according to a survey of 48 prison administrations in Council of Europe members. In seven of them, there were more than 105 prisoners per 100 detention places in 2022, says a report to be published at 10am today.

Help from above

Dutch deputy prime minister Sigrid Kaag has warned that it “is becoming more important and more urgent” that the EU begin preparations for a 35-member union, writes Ian Johnston.

Context: European leaders are keen to reassure Ukraine, Moldova and western Balkan countries that EU membership is a viable goal. But a larger bloc could turn members that are net receivers of EU funds into net contributors, and reforms of voting and veto rights would likely face stiff opposition.

While reiterating the Netherlands’ support for the accession of those countries and “potentially Georgia”, Kaag has signalled difficult conversations lie ahead, including over Ukraine.

“If you anticipate, you’ll be 35 member states of a different make-up and economic make-up. For instance, if Ukraine were to join in the coming years, it will have an impact on the Common Agricultural Policy,” said Kaag, who is also the Netherlands’ finance minister.

The Dutch solution to potential growing pains: handing more powers to the commission. “I believe that the commission must be given a stronger role — as in the case of the single market and competition,” Kaag said.

This would mean that “legislation is applied and implemented uniformly throughout the union,” she added.

Deciding which areas to give the EU executive body a stronger hand over will be a matter for the next EU legislature, Kaag said.

With European elections in a year’s time, institutional reform may face competition from other priorities on the incoming commission’s already daunting to-do list.

What to watch today

1. German, French and Polish finance ministers meet in Weimar, Germany.

2. EU general affairs council meets to prepare leaders’ summit.

Now read these

• See you in court: Europe’s biggest online fashion retailer Zalando is challenging new EU rules meant to target big tech companies.

• For what it’s worth: Using frozen Russian assets to pay Ukraine’s reconstruction is tempting, but the EU should tread carefully, writes Lex.

• Stepping up: Germany has agreed to permanently station 4,000 troops in Lithuania and amp up its ammunitions purchases for Ukraine.