What is the SNP legacy as John Swinney takes on the mantle in Scotland?
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
John Swinney, Scotland’s new first minister, has pledged to implement a moderate, centre-left policy agenda, encouraging economic growth to support public services in Scotland.
The veteran politician, who has been intricately involved in government decision making since the SNP took power in 2007, says he is going to “shout loud and proud about the SNP’s record”.
But after 17 years of government and public expenditure that is 15 per cent higher than the UK average, how does that record look?
GDP
Scotland’s per capita GDP has historically trailed behind that of England, and the gap has widened over the past decade. In 2014, Scotland’s GDP per capita was £27,580 compared with £28,630 in the rest of the UK; by 2022, it had risen to £34,299 in Scotland versus £37,068 elsewhere in the UK.
Many business leaders say the SNP’s pursuit of progressive taxation and regulation has stymied growth north of the border.
David Lonsdale, director of industry group the Scottish Retail Consortium, called for an economic growth plan to ease the “burgeoning regulatory burden”.
“After all, an expanding economy is good for living standards and job prospects as well as government revenues,” he said.
Daniel Johnson of Scottish Labour, which is pitching itself as a lower-tax, pro-enterprise party, describes the SNP government as “incompetent and economically illiterate” that has “left Scots poorer”.
The SNP counters that Scottish GDP performance would be bolstered if its share of North Sea oil and gas revenues were included; Scotland’s lack of control over them has been a historic nationalist grievance.
Swinney argues that Scottish growth would be stronger if it had not been subject to 14 years of UK austerity and Brexit, which he described as Westminster acts of economic “self-harm” that undermine the case for the union.
Education
Declining school attainment has raised concern about Scotland’s once-prized education system, which includes the world’s highest per capita proportion of top universities. In the past 10 years, it has gone from leader to laggard compared with the rest of the UK.
Scotland’s average Pisa score in maths for 15-year-olds under the Pisa international student assessment system was 506 in 2006; by 2022 — the latest data available — it had fallen to 471.
The SNP’s critics say the government’s education policies, including a new skills-based curriculum at the expense of a more formal, knowledge-based approach, have undermined the basic foundations of reading, maths and science.
But government strategists say they have reduced inequality in educational outcomes, with more poorer students attending universities while all Scottish residents can benefit from free tuition fees.
Health
Troubled post-pandemic healthcare, as elsewhere in the UK, poses a particular challenge to Swinney’s ability to rebuild confidence in the SNP’s handling of public services.
The Scottish government’s target that 95 per cent of patients should be processed at emergency departments within four hours is a distant dream, and was last met in 2017. At the end of April, 30 per cent of people had to wait more than four hours to be seen.
At Holyrood, the opposition says the long waiting times at A&E departments are proof that the SNP has left the NHS at “breaking point”.
The SNP points out that it managed to avoid the NHS strikes that have hit health services in England, and that Scottish emergency departments still outperform other parts of the UK.
But with one in seven Scots on an NHS waiting list, the daily reality of healthcare weighs on the government’s record.
Crime
Recorded crimes have tumbled to levels not seen for decades during the SNP’s period in office.
Police recorded roughly 290,000 crimes in 2022-23, 1 per cent higher than the previous year, but 13 per cent lower than a decade ago.
A nationwide survey that includes perceptions of unrecorded crime also showed a decline of 53 per cent over 15 years, but is relatively unchanged since 2020.
And while violent crime came off its 2007 peak, levels plateaued and remained roughly stable over the past decade.
The number of police officers has also been falling since from 17,431 in March 2020 to 16,356 by March this year — the lowest level since 2008.
Poverty
The SNP claims to be lifting 100,000 children out of poverty this year, with its child payment of £26.70 a week per child for low-income families being one of several policies that it says is possible because of a progressive tax system that offsets Westminster funding constraints.
But relative child poverty after housing costs has remained at about 24 per cent in recent years, putting the government at risk of missing its target to reduce levels to fewer than one in 10 children by 2030.
Dave Hawkey, senior research fellow at the Institute for Public Policy Research, a think-tank, welcomed measures such as the child payment but said other decisions, such as freezing council tax, at a cost of £140mn, “could have been targeted on far more effective anti-poverty measures”.
With poverty creeping back towards levels seen in the rest of the UK, Swinney will face a challenge to deliver on his first pledge: to eradicate child poverty.
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