Labour retains control of Welsh parliament after strong showing

Labour will continue to govern Wales after it matched an election record by capturing 30 of the 60 seats in the Welsh parliament.

The centre-left party, which made a gain of one and has held power in Cardiff since devolution took effect 22 years ago, put in a far stronger performance in Wales than in England.

Labour lost a seat to the Conservatives in the Senedd but held on to several other Tory targets in the “Red Wall” that turned blue in the 2019 general election and gained one seat from Plaid Cymru.

Labour could continue to rule with the support of the centrist Liberal Democrats, who kept one seat.

The Conservatives, who went into the election with 11 seats, finished second with 16. Plaid, which had 12, gain one but Leanne Wood, its former leader, lost her Rhondda seat in a swing of 19 per cent to Labour.

The Tories took Vale of Clwyd, in north-east Wales, from Labour by just 366 votes. They also took Brecon and Radnorshire from the Liberal Democrats.

Mark Drakeford, the Labour leader and first minister, has won plaudits for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, a crisis that has highlighted the role of the Welsh government. He promised “stable, progressive” government.

Vaughan Gething, the Wales health minister, told the Financial Times that incumbent parties had done well across Great Britain, including the Conservatives in England and Scottish National party in Scotland.

But he added that Welsh Labour had preached a positive message, eschewing attacks on Boris Johnson. “It is about listening and understanding why people cannot support us. The prime minister has many faults but he is still quite popular. Many people do not believe Labour is the party they want us to be.”

Welsh Labour had managed to attract some former supporters of the UK Independence party, the pro-Brexit movement, which won seven seats in 2016. The three parties on the right — Reform UK, Ukip and Abolish the Assembly — failed to get a single seat.

Andrew Davies, the Conservative leader in the Senedd, said although it gained Vale of Clywd those Brexit-backing Labour voters who supported the Tories in the 2019 general election had “come home”.

Drakeford said Labour had “exceeded expectations”. His party said: “Our Welsh Labour manifesto was very popular, offering a credible answer to the key issues facing our country as we emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic.”  

Some 40 Senedd members are elected from constituencies on a first-past-the-post basis. Another 20 are elected from party lists in five regions. Voters often split their vote to support minority parties, who can win election more easily via the list. Turnout was 46.6 per cent, up from 45.5 per cent last time. Those aged 16-17 had a vote for the first time.

Plaid’s poor performance is a setback for a growing campaign for independence. It increased its vote in some of the seats it held but lost Rhondda, a south Wales valley that is a traditional Labour stronghold. Support for Welsh independence is rising but is far lower than in Scotland, at 28 per cent, according to the FT’s poll of polls.

Graphics by Cale Tilford, Max Harlow, Joanna S Kao and Steven Bernard