Bulgarian government ousted in blow to EU enlargement hopes

Bulgaria’s government has been ousted in a no-confidence vote, plunging the country into renewed political turmoil and dashing hopes of rapidly kickstarting the stalled process of EU enlargement to the western Balkans.

Bulgarian MPs voted 123 to 116 to topple prime minister Kiril Petkov, a reformist who promised to tackle corruption and took a tough line against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Petkov had been premier for six months.

Petkov was voted out in a dispute over a plan to drop Bulgaria’s veto on the start of EU accession talks with North Macedonia as well as differences over the budget. The county is now probably heading for its fourth election since April last year.

The no-confidence vote was also a blow to EU leaders, who are due to convene in Brussels on Thursday to try to reinvigorate the enlargement process in the western Balkans.

Earlier on Wednesday, Bulgaria’s main opposition party said it would support lifting the country’s veto on North Macedonia’s EU talks. Boyko Borisov, a former Bulgarian prime minister, said his centre-right GERB party would vote in favour, despite having first wielded the veto three years ago in a dispute about Skopje’s interpretation of Balkan history.

Despite the sudden shift, GERB also pressed ahead with the no-confidence vote against the government. Petkov’s allies suspected Borisov’s switch over North Macedonia’s EU membership — which remains unpopular in Bulgaria — was a political trap.

European officials fear that delay to EU enlargement could create political instability in the western Balkans and lead to disillusionment about Brussels’ endorsement of the region’s western orientation, which could be exploited by Russia. Petkov had supported EU sanctions against Moscow and fired his defence minister after he refused to describe the Russian invasion as a “war”.

Lifting the veto on talks with North Macedonia would have also unlocked negotiations with Albania, as the two countries’ membership applications have been linked by the EU. The former has been an EU candidate country since 2005 without any progress on accession talks despite meeting many of the bloc’s membership requirements, primarily due to objections over the former Yugoslav republic’s expressions of national identity, first from Greece and then from Bulgaria.

The EU’s broader stance towards eastern expansion has shifted since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine began in February after years of resistance to potential new members. The bloc is set to agree to make Ukraine and Moldova official candidate countries this week, alongside efforts to unblock the stalled process in the western Balkans.

Petkov had been poised to strike a deal with Skopje unlocking the talks when one of the parties in his coalition pulled out in protest over the issue this month, leaving him short of majority.

Petkov could try to form a new majority. If he fails, which seems likely, it would fall to GERB to try to form a government, even though it is still regarded as toxic by the other parties given widespread corruption when it held power.

In the meantime, North Macedonia’s application will remain frozen.

After hopes were raised of a potential breakthrough, North Macedonia, Albania and Serbia said they would take part in the summit in Brussels on Thursday with EU leaders. They had threatened to not attend the meeting over Bulgaria’s position.