Most economists still pessimistic about effects of Brexit

The majority of economists are just as pessimistic about Brexit’s likely effect on Britain’s longer-term economic prospects as they were a year ago and have not been reassured by the resilience of the UK economy after the referendum or the plans of Theresa May’s government.

A year ago, three quarters of economists surveyed in the annual FT poll thought Brexit would harm Britain’s medium term economic prospects, nine times more than those who thought it would improve the outlook.

Almost half of the 120 economists who answered the Brexit question at the end of 2016 had not changed their opinion, 40 per cent had become more pessimistic, while only 13 per cent were now more optimistic.

Economists do not generally feel they were proved wrong by events following the vote even though only a little over a third last year said a vote to leave the EU would have little impact on the economy in 2016.

FT Economists’ survey 2017

Overview

Brexit
Fiscal policy
Growth
Immigration
Inflation
Monetary policy
Performance
Trump

Diane Coyle, professor of economics at Manchester University, predicts worse trading relationships with the EU will hurt goods exporters, those in long supply chains and the education, finance and professional services sectors. “The Brexit vote will tear a hole in the fabric of the economy,” she said.

Sarah Hewin, chief European economist at Standard Chartered, said the noises from government had made her more worried about the long term than a year ago because ministers, “very quickly ruled out joining the European Economic Area (EEA), the one Brexit option that could have delivered the least bad economic outcome”.

A former head of the government economic service, Vicky Pryce, now chief economic adviser to the Centre for Economics and Business Research, worried that Britain’s negotiating position with the EU was feeble. “Instead of taking control, we seem to be entirely dependent on what other countries or regions may be prepared to negotiate with us. The UK is in reality the supplicant,” she said.

A large number of economists recognised that their short-term forecasts for Brexit had been too pessimistic, but most thought this had little bearing on the longer-term implications for leaving the EU. John Gieve, the chairman of Nesta and former deputy governor of the Bank of England, said “the short term reaction has been smaller than I expected but this is only the beginning of the story”.

Michael Dicks, chief economist at Wadhwani Asset Management, warned of ministerial “hubris” following the better than expected 2016, risking the assumption of “only a small long-term cost of exit, [so] British negotiators may end up agreeing to a bad deal”.

Brian Hilliard, chief UK economist at Société Générale, dissented from this majority view, saying that the resilience since June “provides more of a cushion than I expected against the further shocks to come”.

Some economist supporters of Brexit feel vindicated and no more optimistic a year later, but many of the economists expressing greater optimism were already in favour of leaving the EU.

Ryan Bourne, former head of public policy at the Institute of Economic Affairs, said: “The resilience of the economy has surprised me, and given me more confidence that the long-term gains can be achieved without large short term costs.”

Gerard Lyons, chief economic strategist at Netwealth Investments, still sees many opportunities from Brexit especially in the City of London. “Even though there are challenges associated with leaving the EU, I expect the government to have decided upon a strong negotiating stance by the time it triggers Article 50,” he said.

But these expressions of confidence in Britain’s economic future remain a minority in the profession, with many more concerned that the outlook has deteriorated.

Stephanie Flanders, chief market strategist for Europe at JPMorgan Asset Management, says the difficult politics of Brexit have increased the risks of “a highly disruptive departure” with “the least costly, most economically attractive versions of Brexit seem[ing] now to be much less likely”.

“In the end,” said Bronwyn Curtis, from the Society of Business Economists, “it comes down to money. The UK is the country that initiated the ‘divorce’ and Europe will want to make the UK pay the highest price possible.”

Full responses

Anonymous

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

While I got the short-term Brexit impact badly wrong, I continue to think that the long-term impact of Brexit will have a modest negative impact on the LEVEL of income. That is based on a perhaps optimistic assumption that we will eventually manage to re-establish much the same access to European and global markets as we currently enjoy, and that the restrictions on migration will be relatively modest.

Anonymous

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

Clearly most of the short term forecasts were too pessimistic and the immediate shock has been much smaller than expected. Sadly most of the indications about the long term impact (investment intentions, prospects for soft trade barriers) are panning out much as expected so far. But at the same time given the short term forecasts were wrong I think a bit of humility is needed so my levels of conviction are lower than they were.

Anonymous

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

The UK has opted for Brexit. If this means no access to the single market, loss of passporting, loss of euro clearing and, most of all, the end to free movement, both aggregate demand and potential output will take a hit. The dominant Brexit school of thought is not that of the liberal/Atlanticist, globalising Brexiters for whom the EU is too inward-looking, protectionist and bureaucratic, but that of the inward-looking, national-chauvinist, anti-foreigner, nativist little Englanders, with strong interventionist tendencies, who will cause potential output in the UK to stagnate until the UK (possibly just England by then) reapplies for EU membership 15 years from now.

Howard Archer, chief European and uk economist, IHS Global Insight

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

I suspect the UK faces a prolonged period of uncertainty as it will likely be many years before the UK’s divorce from the EU is absolute. I doubt that the UK will come to an arrangement that is beneficial economically as membership of the EU is, especially given it will likely have restricted access at best to the single market. I also suspect that some sectors of the economy could suffer if the UK follows too stringent an immigration policy

Angus Armstrong, director of macroeconomics, National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

Longer term prospects for trade and investment, and hence the level of productivity, are as expected ie worse as a result of Brexit. Reaching deep, modern trade and investment deals with an effective enforcement mechanism is difficult when so much political capital is invested in ‘take back control’ and no shared judicial system. Not much room for compromise. One bright spot is the new emphasis on ‘Industrial Strategy’ and possibly a more coherent regional policy. Both have long been needed, especially regional policy. Whether this is for real for ephemeral may be determine whether there is real recognition of those who are ‘left behind’.

Melanie Baker and Jacob Nell, UK economists, Morgan Stanley

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

We have broadly the same view about the long-term impact of leaving the EU. We think it will sharply reduce immigration and curb FDI inflows. Government migration policy will effectively be tighter and the UK will no longer be such an attractive location for businesses. Together, we expect potential growth to fall about a quarter from just over 2% to 1.6% pa. We also think that a more closed UK economy is likely to be a more volatile economy — more prone to overheating and shorter, sharper cycles. Meanwhile, the near term prospects look better, but the medium-term prospects worse. Getting to the long term looks like it will be bumpier and take longer. While the near term performance of the UK economy after exit has been better than expected, we are now more pessimistic about the scope for a smooth transition and its duration, given the UK government’s prioritisation of national control over borders, laws and courts over the economic benefits of close links with Europe.

Nicholas Barr, professor of public economics, London School of Economics

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

See above — Roadrunner — still running on confidence that will decline as the reality of Brexit becomes clearer.

Ray Barrell, emeritus professor, Brunel University, National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

We know little about life outside the EU at present, as the role of the Single Market, the external tariff and controls on migration are unknown. There is little reason to change the overall view from 12 months ago, that leaving the EU will leave the UK with GDP per head 3 to 6 per cent lower in the long run, with that coming through lower growth over an extended period rather than a sharp downturn. The losses may be divided between those from trade if we leave the Single Market and are outside the external tariff and those from the impacts of foreign direct investment and competition on efficiency of factor use. Each could contribute up to 2 per cent lower output.

The trade costs of being outside the EU are clear, and as trade patterns are dominated by distance, size and barriers we will not see far distant markets fully replace those close at hand. In addition, the UK benefits both from being a convenient platform for non EU producers who wish to access the Single Market, and from significant involvement by EU firms in UK production that results from access to the Single Market. Firms bring ‘ways of doing’ and specific technologies that will be lost, and hence output will be weaker as we gradually lose the investments. The gains from competition come in part from good regulation of the market and contestable access. It is unlikely that we will produce as good an environment once it is closely controlled by a local elite whose special interests were being constrained by the EU.

David Bell, professor of economics, University of Stirling

More optimistic than 12 months ago

I am not more optimistic about the eventual outcome — rather that it will take longer to be realised. This is because I did not anticipate the likely time it will take to go through the process of leaving the EU and to agree a trade deal with all of its members. My view is that Brexit will have a significant negative effect on UK economic prospects, but that it will take longer than most forecasters predicted before these effects are realised.

Marian Bell, former MPC member

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

It seems increasingly possible that the more adverse scenarios for future UK-EU relations will materialise, while the global political mood has become more protectionist, which will make it harder for the UK to negotiate and benefit from international trade deals.

Andrew Benito, senior European economist, Goldman Sachs

More optimistic than 12 months ago

We are more optimistic than we were about the short-term prospects. Our views of the medium- to long-term effects of leaving the EU have changed little. What, then, have we learnt about the effects of the referendum decision in the past five months? We had not expected the UK to vote Leave on June 23. In the aftermath of that decision, we lowered our UK forecasts — by 2.75% for the level of GDP over a 3-year period, and expected 0.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter growth in Q3. The subsequent resilience of the UK economy has caused us to revise up our UK outlook — by around 0.5% on the level of GDP over the next three years, with that positive news concentrated in 2016Q3 and 2016Q4 and ‘locked in’ to our forecast thereafter. This tells us relatively little about long-term prospects outside the EU. Those long-term prospects depend on other policy decisions that the UK makes. If the UK remains an open, dynamic economy then this will limit the long-term effects of leaving the EU. Activity in some narrowly-defined sectors such as commercial real estate has weakened sharply up to and following the referendum. Yet, this is narrow evidence that referendum-related uncertainty weighed on activity this year. Some slightly broader weakness has applied in the construction sector since the referendum — and construction output fell by around 1% in Q3. Overall, however, any weakness has applied narrowly, it has not been amplified by any tightening in financial conditions and indeed an easing in financial conditions has allowed other sectors — notably, consumer-facing sectors — to offset what narrowly-defined weakness there has been. Nonetheless, this still leaves the expected level of GDP 2.2% lower in three years’ time, on our forecasts, owing to the decision to leave the EU. On balance, we have learnt the following about the economy’s reaction to the referendum decision: · There was more momentum going into the referendum than we thought. Not only was the first estimate of GDP growth for Q2, at 0.6%, stronger than implied by the weakening PMIs, but that was subsequently revised up to 0.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter and its strongest pace of growth since late-2014; · Without a seizing up in access to credit that makes doing day-to-day business difficult, shifts in uncertainty take longer to affect spending and activity than our estimates suggested. Overall, the effect of uncertainty on activity now appears somewhat less and is more slow-acting than we had thought. Given that estimates of these effects are subject to a quite wide confidence interval — which our own previous estimates had flagged — we will need to continually monitor and update these views through 2017 and beyond.

Tim Besley, professor of economics and political science, London School of Economics

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

I am more optimistic though than I was immediately following the Brexit vote even though there are many things that need to be resolved. Trade costs will increase inevitably in the medium run and that will be a drag on some sectors of the economy. But it is even more important that the UK stays open to high-skilled migration. If we can remain a magnet for the world’s most talented and creative people, then the prospects are not so bad. I will remain extremely cautious until we have an unequivocal and practically implementable commitment by the government.

David Blanchflower, Bruce V. Rauner professor, Dartmouth College

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

I am more pessimistic despite the most recent data being better than many including me expected. My main concern is that the government seem to have no plan for Brexit and very little economic credibility. The attempt to undermine Carney was a classic example where the markets prevented them from doing or saying stupid stuff. Seems to me they have little economic credibility. When the next negative shock comes along, which it surely must as by 2017 it will be nine years since the last one, they seem unprepared.

Nick Bosanquet, emeritus professor of health policy, Imperial College

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

Single market meant customer loyalty — steady sales to know customers using efficient agents and with prompt payments. Search for new markets in Asia/Latin America involves higher costs and risks. Brexit means at least five years of insecurity and slower growth. 1992-2008 highest growth for last 300 years on BoE data — now much higher risk.

Ryan Bourne, former head of public policy, Institute of Economic Affairs

More optimistic than 12 months ago

Last year I said that Brexit was a huge long-term supply side opportunity for the UK. But I did expect a temporary slowdown in transition. The resilience of the economy has surprised me, and given me more confidence that the long-term gains can be achieved without large short term costs.

Francis Breedon, professor of economics and finance, Queen Mary University London

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

long term trade consequences of Brexit are almost certainly negative for growth

Alan Budd, former head of the Office for Budget Responsibility,

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

I had not expected that our mean (ie expected) growth rate in the long term would be significantly affected by Brexit. (Of course I was wrong about the vote.) I was and am much more worried about the increased uncertainty. That remains the case.

Frances Cairncross, chair of court, Heriot-Watt University

More optimistic than 12 months ago

It depends, of course, on the length of the long term. But the EU may hit choppy waters over the next four or five years which will make it an unattractive market compared with the rest of the world. Already, the share of UK trade with the EU has been dwindling. The most worrying questions in the outside world are of course about Trump — how long can the US sustain faster expansion, and what happens when that hits the buffers?

Jagjit Chadha, director, NIESR

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

The decision to leave a rich free trade area will impose costs on external trade, lead to a period of uncertainty for firms and imply some need to reorient trading relations. My view has not changed on a year ago. The overall long run impact cannot be clear but the measurable impact is clearly negative.

Alan Clarke, head of European fixed income strategy, Scotiabank

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

I have been encouraged by the resilience of the economic data in the aftermath of the referendum. I had expected a much worse outcome, especially given the initial dive in survey indicators. In the short run, there have been some offsetting influences that have supported the data. The weak pound has attracted tourist spending, helping retail sales to grow far faster than most, if not all, major economies. Similarly, a typical central bank Monetary Conditions Index would be showing about the most accommodative conditions for many years, helping to explain the buoyancy of indicators such as the PMIs. In the short run, life goes on. The UK is still in the EU for at least the next 2 years, so it has been business as usual for now. However, over the longer run, I fear that the fundamentals, the statistics and the logic will be outweighed by the politics. We are at risk of a suboptimal deal between the UK and EU, and both sides end up worse off than they would have been in the absence of the Brexit vote.

David Cobham, professor of economics, Heriot-Watt University

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

I always took the view that Brexit would lower the long-term growth rate by somewhere around 1%, and I have so far seen no reason to change that — partly because the shape of the eventual Brexit is still unclear.

Diane Coyle, professor of economics, University of Manchester

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

The Brexit vote will tear a hole in the fabric of the economy. It is going to damage existing trade relationships and make it significantly harder for the UK to export in future, especially in services. It will harm our supply chain industries. It looks likely to inflict serious damage on some high value export sectors such as higher education, finance, professional services. It will reduce inward investment — source of important productivity spillovers — compared to what it would otherwise have been. It is already making it harder to fund research and will leave our scientists more isolated. It will absorb all of government’s attention, and much revenue, for years to come. We might experience significant brain drain as EU migrants leave. I could go on.

Bronwyn Curtis, Society of Business Economists

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

In the end it comes down to money. The UK is the country that initiated the ‘divorce’ and Europe will want to make the UK pay the highest price possible. The positions will become entrenched in 2017 as politicians facing re-election in Europe will not want to be seen as soft on the UK. As politics moves to the right, the election of Marine Le Pen as President of France becomes a real possibility. Turmoil in Europe would be a major problem in the short term, but it could force the UK to take the tough decisions more quickly. Dublin will become the destination for companies needing a foothold in the EU.

Howard Davies, chairman, Royal Bank of Scotland

More optimistic than 12 months ago

Sterling fell more and more rapidly than I expected, which will give a modest boost to net exports.

Richard Davies

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

I wanted the UK stay in the EU and campaigned for that. 12 months ago I thought that outside the EU we could expect our civil servants to get pretty tough treatment from their colleagues on the continent, and that the WTO would provide a useful backstop against the very worst outcomes (eg outright protectionism). People are playing out their roles in the way people predicted. For example, we are seeing efforts to chip away at London’s position as the financial hub on the European continent, something we should be vigorously defending.

Paul De Grauwe, professor, London School of Economics

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

Panicos Demetriades, professor of financial economics, University of Leicester and former governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus,

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

The uncertainty created by the vote in favour of Brexit was entirely predictable. We still do not know what Brexit exactly means and this will be the situation for the months and possibly years to come until an agreement on Brexit is reached. Meanwhile, Brexit can set in motion similar developments in other countries, compounding uncertainty. In the long run, Brexit may well prove to be the trigger for a new world in which protectionism is the norm. In such a scenario, the outlook for the world economy would be a bleak one and the political consequences unpredictable. Europe, after all, was a project for peace; many people have sadly forgotten that.

Wouter Den Haan, professor, London School of Economics

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

Although it is definitely conceivable that the UK will manage to get a spectacular deal, it is more likely that it will not, and even more likely that at the end of the two-year negotiation period there is still no agreement. Then they will probably come up with some creative temporary fixes.

Michael Dicks, chief economist, Wadhwani Asset Management

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

Brexit hasn’t turned out to have the negative short-term impact on the economy — via a surge in uncertainty & hits to investment and spending on big-ticket items — that many (including me) had thought likely. However, the fact that the economy not going into a sharp slowdown has led to some in government to assume that this means that the long-term effects are also likely to be limited has made me more worried about long-term prospects. After all, this hubris raises the chances of a “hard Brexit”. And in other respects, by assuming (wrongly) an only small long-term cost of exit, British negotiators may end up agreeing to a bad deal.

I have also grown more gloomy about the amount of benefit that a weak pound will generate, given the accumulating evidence that UK exports are less price elastic than most macro models suggest — something that I wrote about back in the early years of the recovery (in the IFS’s “”Green Budget””). So, the pound may need to be lower for longer: as will living standards be if this comes about.

The same, gloomy, conclusion has to be drawn regarding UK productivity. Not only has it flatlined, but the UK appears to be doing worse than most other advanced economies. Brexit will mean less pressure on UK companies to compete, and probably entails a bigger “hit” to performance than seemed likely a year ago — when a more forthright pick-up in productivity seemed likely.

I have also grown more pessimistic regarding Europe’s prospects post-Brexit, as it is looking increasingly unlikely that anyone there will “lead from the front” — and seek to generate momentum behind a much needed reform process. A continuing “drift”, and the associated “kick the can down the road” attitude, is entailing higher long-term costs — not just for the Euro area itself but for the rest of the continent. The consensus expectation — of EMU break-up risks being about 25% — looks too low.

Peter Dixon, Commerzbank

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

I have long held the view that the UK will suffer economically from being outside the EU and nothing has changed there. Even if the medium-term decline in output is “only” 3% relative to what might otherwise have occurred, it’s an avoidable loss of economic welfare. What makes me moderately more pessimistic, however, is that the government has recently shown signs of being prepared to pursue a “hard” Brexit, compared to my longstanding assumption that some form of accommodation will be reached. This may all be part of a domestic political gambit or it may reflect the government’s insecurity as it seeks to reassure itself that all will be fine on the night. But the economic costs of such an outcome will be greater and less predictable. As a result, the tails of the risk distribution are fatter as worse outcomes become less unthinkable.

Kevin Dowd, professor of finance and economics, Durham University

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

I think Brexit is good for the UK economy, but in the short term the downside factors (explained above) are likely to outweigh the positive impact of Brexit.

Charles Dumas, chief economist, TS Lombard

More optimistic than 12 months ago

Better north/south balance, less low-income immigration making incomes more unequal

Jan Eeckhout, professor of economics, University College London

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

I did not expect sentiment to dominate reason as much as the Brexit referendum has made manifest.

Martin Ellison, professor of economics, University of Oxford

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

It’s depressing to feel more pessimistic. More than 175 days after the referendum, we have little more idea what Brexit will look like than we did at the beginning of the year. Major forces have been unleashed globally that have created the rise of populist parties and put many experts in retreat, so it will take time to see what the new world order will look like. Upcoming elections in Germany and France look too tight to call (and even if they didn’t we would probably be worried anyway as pollsters have hardly covered themselves in glory in 2016), so we could be in for large changes. The baseline performance of the UK economy has been reasonable in recent years — the next 12 months is likely to see that falter.

Stephanie Flanders, chief market strategist for Europe, J P Morgan Asset Management

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

If we know anything about Brexit it is that nothing is certain, but on balance it seems to me the risk of a highly disruptive departure have increased somewhat since the summer of 2016. There are still a range of tolerable outcomes that are possible, but the least costly, most economically attractive versions of Brexit seem now to be much LESS likely than on the day the vote was held.

Noble Francis, economics director, Construction Products Association

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

We currently have no idea what the UK’s trade, migration/labour flows and regulations/standards terms will be post-Brexit as the UK government currently have no idea what they will be and the EU currently have no idea what they will be. In addition, we don’t know how long it will take to determine the end point. Two years is clearly not enough to determine the details of all the issues highlighted. As a result, we have had to assume two years following submission of the letter for Article 50 for the main issues and a five-year transition agreement for other issues. However, the uncertainties for firms are unprecedented and uncertainty impacts greatest where it is high investment up front for a long-term rate of return. Within industry this is clearly manufacturing, particularly for the domestic market. Within construction, this is within the commercial offices sector, particularly for high-end towers that are dependent on international investment.

John Gieve, chair, Nesta

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

The short term reaction has been smaller than I expected but this is only the beginning of the story

Charles Goodhart

More optimistic than 12 months ago

for two main reasons. First, the immediate shock of the unexpected vote had considerably less effect than most of us had expected. Second, the EU itself is increasingly fragile, so there is a rising probability that we will not have been departing from a successful continuing regional system.

Andrew Goodwin, lead UK economist, Oxford Economics

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

The main impact of Brexit was always going to be seen over the longer-term, rather than the short-term, and until the government tells us its vision of the long-term UK-EU trading relationship, we have very little to go on. While the government finally seems to be moving on to the right page with regard to an interim arrangement, I am still concerned that its headed towards one of the more economically-damaging outcomes over the longer-term — either a limited FTA which does little to support our crucial services sector or quite possibly a reversion to WTO rules. With it being comfortably our most important market, it is imperative that we get a good deal with the EU — if we hamper our trade with the EU we will have to do a huge amount of work in terms of agreeing deals with other countries just to ensure that we stand still.

Stuart Green, UK chief economist, Santander

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

The resilience of the UK economy to the EU referendum result is both encouraging and a cause for greater optimism around the near-term outlook. But extrapolating this confidence over the longer-term still requires a leap of faith, given the lack of visibility around the UK’s future trading relationship with the EU. Overall, we are largely as optimistic as we were 12 months ago with regard to the UK’s long-term economic prospects outside of the EU. The UK will remain an attractive choice for overseas investment, but a prolonged period of uncertainty around the outcome of the Article 50 process would in our view create challenges for the economy over the medium-term.

Rebecca Harding, chief economist, British Bankers’ Association

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

The effects of Brexit were always, in my view, likely to take longer to impact on the economy and were not just economic. The biggest impact of Brexit has been the unleashing of anti-establishment movements in the US and across Europe. This catalytic effect was always probable; the economics of uncertainty have been dominating my view of the global outlook for some time.

Jonathan Haskel, professor of economics, Imperial College Business School, Imperial College London

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

If I understand the question it is asking how I felt 12 months ago about the hypothetical UK outside the EU relative to how I feel now about the UK outside the EU after the vote. I have to confess that I did not think very much 12 months ago about the UK outside the EU, but if I had done, I would probably have felt the same then as I do now. More helpfully, if the question is “what are our broad prospects after Brexit” then I would say this. First, I believe the level of GDP will fall after Brexit as we lose the efficiencies of trade eg specialisation etc. But I’m not sure the effect will be very large. It’s been very hard in eg the Single Market evaluation material to find very strong (ie more than a few %points of GDP) effects of EU trade integration, and so I struggle to find strong evidence from EU disintegration. Second, growth falls on that transition to the new level, but whether growth permanently falls is hard to say. We have evidence that trade assists sorting and competition benefits growth, but again the long run evidence on this is thin. However, if FDI falls, which it may well do and since that produces spillovers of knowledge to domestic firms, then there will be a fall in (total factor) productivity growth via that mechanism. Thus I agree with the Treasury document that this mechanism might lower long run growth.

John Hawksworth, chief economist, PwC

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

The short-term impacts of Brexit have been less severe than we feared so far, but nothing material has changed in relation to our longer term assessment of the likely negative effects of Brexit on UK trade, investment and growth.

Sarah Hewin, chief European economist, Standard Chartered

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

as the government very quickly ruled out joining the EEA, the one Brexit option that could have delivered the least-bad economic outcome

Brian Hilliard, chief UK economist, Société Générale

More optimistic than 12 months ago

Mainly because the short term performance of the UK post-referendum provides more of a cushion than I expected against the further shocks to come.

Martin Hutchinson, columnist, The Bear’s Lair

More optimistic than 12 months ago

I never thought the electorate would go through with it, and I still worry that the political classes will find a way to negate it.

Ethan Ilzetzki, lecturer in economics, London School of Economics and Centre for Macroeconomics

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

In last year’s survey, I expressed great concern about the costs of the UK’s exit from the EU. In the months following the vote I have become even more pessimistic as the government has so far shown no sign of competence or skill in navigating the impending Brexit negotiations and the UK’s global role outside the EU. Instead, the PM and top ministers have resorted to empty jingoistic slogans and PR stunts. They appear to be taken entirely by surprise by the magnitude of the task ahead of them. In addition, the response to complaints from many special interest groups — agriculture, the automotive industry — has been to promise them compensation for the costs of Brexit. This smacks of dirigiste industrial policy and is the opposite of free trade — the government seems intent on choosing winners and losers. Sadly, one of its chosen losers appears to be the financial services industry — the largest employer in the UK.

Richard Jeffrey, chief economist, Cazenove Capital Management

More optimistic than 12 months ago

Brexit poses a major challenge to the UK. However, I am anticipating a strong response from companies as they begin to develop new export markets in the 80%+ of the world economy that is not the EU. In this sense, the apparent threat facing companies is likely to prove invigorating and, in time, this may well give a stimulus to business investment. Brexit has been treated as if it were a wall that will have to be climbed; in reality is likely to be a series of bumps, many of which will have more political than business impact. The UK will not lose access to the single market and it is not necessary to have agreements ratified to be able to trade with other countries. It has been encouraging during the post-referendum period to date that there have been continuing announcements of inwards investment, particularly (but not only) by technology companies.

Oliver Jones, economist, Fathom Consulting

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

On the one hand, consumer confidence has held up, but one the other, ‘hard’ rather than ‘soft’ Brexit is on the cards.

Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist, BCA Research

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

I am more pessimistic. Compared to 12 months ago, the rising tide of populism means that the EU must make an example of the UK “pour encourager les autres”. Exiting the EU must come with a demonstrable cost. Therefore, the prospects of a Brexit-lite have diminished.

DeAnne Julius, former member of the MPC

More optimistic than 12 months ago

12 months ago I thought a vote for Brexit would throw the UK into a disruptive political situation involving new elections and great uncertainty on the part of business. However, Britain executed a stunningly swift change of Prime Minister to one uniquely well equipped to deal with splits in her own party and arguably with the right temperament to handle complex negotiations with the EU. Meanwhile, business has recovered from the initial shock of Brexit and is getting on with life, making the most of the fall in sterling and back to worrying about technological disruption and competition as the biggest strategic threats.

David Kern, consultant economist, Kern Consulting

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

The initial negative consequences of Brexit (mainly due to higher uncertainty) will be temporary, and will be much smaller than most commentators have predicted.

Stephen King, group chief economist, HSBC Investment Bank

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

I feel about the same as I did earlier. For all the crowing about post-Brexit economic performance so far being “better than expected”, the UK’s underlying frailties haven’t gone away: a large balance of payments deficit, a dismal productivity record and persistent uncertainty regarding its relationship with the rest of the world.

James Knightley, senior economist, ING

More optimistic than 12 months ago

This is largely based on the growing prospect of a long transition period that could allow for a more reasoned and thought out long-term partnership between the UK and the EU.

Ruth Lea, economic adviser, Arbuthnot Banking Group

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

12 months ago, I took the view that a post-Brexit Britain should have a bright future, and brighter than within the EU. I still take that view. (I assume we will leave both the Customs Union and the Single Market and agree a trade deal with the EU basically comprising the continuation of tariff free trade on goods and agreements on “equivalence” for financial services). Free of the EU the UK will be able to repeal/amend the most irksome business regulations (though I understand that when we leave we will initially adopt all EU law, which makes sense). We will also be able to negotiate our own bilateral trade deals with fast-growing countries. Such bilateral trade deals should be much easier and quicker to negotiate than those negotiated by the EU, with its, disparate, 28 members. We will also be able to adopt a bespoke immigration policy, which does not discriminate between EU and non-EU citizens and one which is more appropriate to the economic and social needs of the country (I do not expect it to be draconian, by the way). And there will be savings on contributions to the EU budget (about £8-10bn net a year), a useful boost to the nation’s finances.

Warwick Lightfoot, director, Policy Exchange

More optimistic than 12 months ago

The trend rate of growth is determined by evolution of an economy’s supply performance, that turns on quality of the stock of human and physical capital, the efficiency of product and labour markets, the use of the price mechanism and the degree to which markets are open and competitive. The EU has always had a dirigiste reflex exemplified by clumsy regulation, the distortions that arise from the Common Agricultural Policy, a high external common tariff and policy programmes such as the science Horizon 2020 that are expensive, bureaucrat and disappointing in its results. Brexit means that the UK will be able to resist further clumsy EU regulation and examine and change defective regulation that arises out of common EU policy.

In the long term the UK may also benefit from some Moncur Olson effects that would arise from examining the effectiveness of policies and institutions since 1973 that could be modified as a result of Brexit, which will be positive. The sensible approach would be caution and no expectation of overall change in the trend rate of growth until one sees the evidence in the future. Completely separate from Brexit, I have become more pessimistic about of the UK’s long-term trend rate of growth, since 2007. We are not confident of what it is, but I am more pessimistic than I was before 2007. It may now be in range of between 1.7 to 2 pct. Policies directed at improving the supply performance of the economy, reducing the deadweight cost of public expenditure, making product and labour markets more flexible could raise it to something closer to 2.75 pct.

John Llewellyn, partner, Llewellyn Consulting

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

Almost six months from the Brexit referendum, little is known about the nature and timing of the UK’s departure from the EU, but it is hard to see how a substantial loss of market access, uncertainty, and financial market disruption will be avoided. The cabinet is riven; much of the civil service aghast; other EU political leaders either unsympathetic or otherwise engaged; the constitutional lawyers still beavering; and the public as divided as in June. The political outlook is rambunctious, and potentially tempestuous.

Jonathan Loynes, chief economist, Capital Economics

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

We have been less pessimistic than most forecasters about the economic effects of a Brexit. The economy’s resilience since the referendum and indications that Brexit will be “softish” have supported our position.

Gerard Lyons, chief economic strategist, Netwealth Investments

More optimistic than 12 months ago

The Government looks set to trigger Article 50 before the end of March. Although the political focus and media interest will be intense, the reality is that it should not directly impact current business during 2017. Naturally, how the UK positions itself is key.

In my view, Brexit is an excellent opportunity for the UK to reposition itself in the changing global economy. The City also now faces a huge competitive challenge from a future deregulated Wall Street. I expect to see the UK focus on strengthening its global ties during 2017. Even though there are challenges associated with leaving the EU, I expect the Government to have decided upon a strong negotiating stance by the time it triggers Article 50.

Stephen Machin, professor of economics, London School of Economics

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

The same reasons as for 1). on growth prospects, couple with the additional uncertainty associated with where the Brexit negotiations are going.

Chris Martin, professor, University of Bath

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

I am a mainstream economist and agree with the economic arguments for why Brexit will be damaging to the UK economy. Precise prediction is difficult, but I would expect GDP per head to be 3-5% lower in 20 years than it would have been if the UK stayed in.

Liz Martins, UK economist, HSBC

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

Our pessimism around Brexit has largely been related to the short-to-medium term upheaval. Although we see risks that the UK could be materially damaged by Brexit itself over the long-term, it is hard to draw this conclusion without knowing the terms of the eventual deal, particularly with uncertainty surrounding so much else in Europe.

Mariana Mazzucato, professor in the economics of innovation, University of Sussex

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

The best thing the Coalition government did was to set up the OBR. And its objective projections for UK growth speak loudly: since March (pre-Brexit vote) projections for 2017 are down from 2.2% to 1.4%. And for 2018, down from 2.1% to 1.7%. A large part of this is due to Brexit — mostly because of the effect of lower projected business investment on productivity and inflation on investment (accounting for a fall in GDP of 1.5%/year by 2021), and a reduction in net migration (accounting for an additional fall of 0.8%/year in GDP by 2021, so totalling 2.3%). The fall in business investment that will accompany Brexit (see my first answer) are very bad for the UK economy. We will have to see if May’s industrial strategy makes up for that.

Andrew McPhillips, chief economist, YBS Group

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

Our expectation was always towards more of a slowdown for a couple of years rather than triggering a recession as many others were forecasting. Data since June has in our view supported this assumption and we expect it to continue through 2017.

David Meenagh, lecturer, Cardiff University/Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

We thought the best choice for the UK was the free trade option that Brexit would bring, so since Brexit we feel the same.

Hetal Mehta, senior European economist, Legal & General Investment Management

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

Although the UK economy has shown more resilience than I thought likely should the UK have voted for Brexit, signals from the government on what it wishes to negotiate and have been mixed and lack direction. Furthermore, the EU’s refusal to engage in any sort of preliminary/informal talks also keeps the level of uncertainty very high.

Costas Milas, professor of finance, University of Liverpool

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

BREXIT was a surprise to Brexiters who were (and still are) completely unprepared to lead the way. What we need is clarity regarding our future trade relationship with Europe and (of course) a stable currency. We (still) have a season ticket in Europe (in terms of access to the single market). BREXIT will probably change all that. But, why on earth would we want to switch to individual (and much more expensive) tickets? The long-run prospects are worse I am afraid . . .

David Miles, professor of economics, Imperial College, London

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

Long run prospects are all about labour productivity, the impact of Brexit on which is very hard to fathom and might well be negligible.

Patrick Minford, professor of applied economics, Cardiff Business School

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

Allan Monks, global market strategist, JPMorgan

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

While growth held up surprisingly well just after the referendum, nothing has happened to suggest the UK’s long term economic prospects outside of the EU look any better. Indeed, a year ago some may have expected the government to pursue a soft version of Brexit (in the event of a leave vote) in order to mitigate the damage to the economy. While the process is still at a very early stage, comments made by government figures since the vote have instead raised the chances of a so-called “hard” Brexit which is likely to lead to an adverse impact on national income and living standards.

Fabrice Montagne, chief UK and senior European economist, Barclays

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

While the short term resilience has surprised us to the upside, the long term outlook remains challenging. We believe trend growth has dropped towards 1,5% even before Brexit, and Brexit creates downside risks to that estimate. We see only limited upside opportunities outside the EU that the UK couldn’t benefit from within the EU.

Kathrin Muehlbronner, sovereign risk group, Moody’s Investor’s Service Ltd

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

Back then, we believed that the decision to leave the EU would be negative for the UK economy and we still believe so now. The longer-term economic impact depends crucially on the kind of new trade deal that the UK manages to agree with the EU. But the EU is the UK’s single-biggest trading partner and making trade more costly and complicated can only result in lower trade and lower prosperity over the longer term.

John Muellbauer, professor, Nuffield College and Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

I remain about as pessimistic as before, though decisive Bank of England action immediately after the referendum did its best to maintain growth, and the corporate tax cut is trying to offset Brexit effects on business location.

Rain Newton-Smith, chief economist, CBI

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

Erik Nielsen, group chief economist, UniCredit

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

I have no new thinking in this. Short term, I was surprised how well UK activity held up, but that doesn’t change my linger term view.

Andrew Oswald, professor of economics and behavioural science, Warwick University

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

David Owen, chief European financial economist, Jefferies

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

Fortunately, Article 50 was not immediately triggered after June 23, the BoE moved quickly to ease policy and head off any problems in the banking sector and the currency adjusted significantly lower. But, the impact of Brexit will only become apparent in the longer-term. To the extent that Brexit ultimately represents less trade, less investment, less FDI and less migration than would otherwise be the case, long-term UK economic growth will be lower. Our concerns run much wider than this, however, with Brexit weakening Europe more generally, where the ECB effectively remains the only game in town, with little appetite now to complete the European project. 2017 is likely to be a year of heightened political risk more generally. On-going weakness in world trade limits the likely boost to UK GDP from exports, on the back of a more competitive exchange rate, although the UK’s current account deficit could improve a lot faster than people are thinking.

David Paton, professor of industrial economics, Nottingham University Business School

More optimistic than 12 months ago

In the first place, the short term shock that many predicted would occur in the event of Brexit has not happened — quite the reverse if anything. More fundamentally, long term prospects are much brighter under Brexit than had we voted to remain in the EU given 1. the new freedom to develop our own trade relationships with the rest of the world and 2. that we will regain greater ability to develop regulation and economic policy designed for the UK rather than the result of an EU-compromise that satisfies no one.

Joseph Pearlman, professor of economics, City University

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

Last year I thought we would remain in the EU. The costs from negotiating trade deals from scratch will be detrimental to the economy.

Ann Pettifor, director, Policy Research in Macroeconomics (PRIME)

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

Prospects for the UK economy outside of the EU depend on demand, which indirectly also depends on financial stability. The Leave agenda is for intensified financial and trade liberalisation, an agenda that will hit the buffers of weak global demand. There is little evidence of a material change in attitude to fiscal policy — what has happened will surely have happened anyway. Financial instability ($500bn QE pumped out each quarter by G4 central banks, negative bond yields, effectively insolvent (absent public subsidies) global banks, low levels of lending, high real rates for risk-taking entrepreneurs, volatile FX) is the norm, inside or outside the EU. We have known this all along.

John Philpott, director, The Jobs Economist

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

My view last year was that Brexit would hit economic growth in the short term and result in a modest fall in the long term trend rate of growth. Although the immediate consequences have not proved as bad as initially feared I am no more optimistic about the negative long-term effect.

Kallum Pickering, senior uk economist, Berenberg Bank

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

No change. By damaging trade, and lowering migration and investment with its biggest market, the EU, Brexit will reduce the UK’s long run potential growth rate. In our Brexit base case, potential growth will fall to 1.8% pa from its current rate of 2.2%.

Chris Pissarides, regius professor of economics, LSE

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

I had expected a lot of uncertainty in financial markets and trade relations, which would cause a fall in investment until signals become clearer. I had also expected confused signals from the government about exactly what they want, let alone what they can get, which would add to the uncertainty, as it has done.

Ian Plenderleith, chairman, BH Macro

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy, King’s College London

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

The strong consensus among economists is that Brexit will make the UK significantly worse off in the medium to long term — not disastrously so, but significantly. This is backed up by a considerable body of theoretical and empirical evidence. Of course, this evidence is based on historical data, and past is not necessarily prologue; there is a high degree of uncertainty. But the probability must be that Brexit will make us worse off. It is also important to note that while economic developments since the referendum have certainly not borne out the pessimistic forecasts of some institutions, that really tells us almost nothing about long-term impacts — short-term forecasts are made using very different methodologies to those used to estimate long-term impacts, and (paradoxically) are much less reliable.

Richard Portes, professor of economics, London Business School

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

It’s clear the government has no coherent plan for Brexit, and if it did, the civil service would be unable to implement it — unless the ‘plan’ were just EEA. That seems unlikely, so a very ‘hard’ Brexit looks more likely, with severe economic costs. If people — both in government and in the country — come to realise this, then perhaps we can avoid it. That’s why the ideologues want Brexit for breakfast — tomorrow, regardless of cost.

Adam Posen, president, Peterson Institute for International Economics

More optimistic than 12 months ago

I was so dreadfully pessimistic that I overshot in my expectations of gilt sell-off. I also had thought the Bank of England wouldn’t react as strongly/well as it did. But less pessimistic makes me still very pessimistic.

Vicky Pryce, chief economic adviser, CEBR

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

12 months ago — I had assumed that the economic trajectory would stay pretty much as was though worried about weak world economic growth and the large debt overhang everywhere, including in Europe. Domestically it was obvious that the deficit reduction trajectory painted by Osborne would not hold and productivity was unlikely to pick up significantly causing problems for the UK’s competitiveness. 12 months on, both the external and domestic environment have worsened. On the external side we have increasing threat of protectionism and worsening geopolitical conflicts which would have led me to downgrade UK long term economic forecasts anyway. Europe is still stuck in austerity mode and has not been able to get on top of an unsustainable debt or a continuing banking crisis while the Syrian refugee problem has polarised the continent. World trade growth has stalled. Brexit has added to the problems. And it is not clear to see, given a worsening trade environment and with rising oil prices following the Opec production decision how easily the UK will in reality be able to negotiate quick and preferential free-trade deals with non EU countries. Of course the UK will not have left the EU yet by the end of 2017 although it will, barring any legal or parliamentary impediments, have made its intentions clear. But nevertheless the outlook for trade will be worsening and hence for productivity and growth in the medium to long term.

I am therefore now even more pessimistic. Instead of taking control we seem to be entirely dependent on what other countries/regions may be prepared to negotiate with us. The UK is on reality the supplicant, holding very few trump cards. It is therefore increasingly obvious that whatever deal it gets will be worse than before, for goods but also for services. Trade is hugely important to guarantee productivity growth and prosperity as it encourages competition and hence innovative investment and generally lowers prices for the consumer from where they otherwise would have been. And if the access to a free trade area from the UK is no longer as easily available that will deter foreign direct investment into the country and that will impact negatively too on productivity and growth.

Morten Ravn, professor of economics, University College London

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

I did not expect the referendum to support Brexit. I am therefore more pessimistic than I was 12 months ago. I fail to see much good coming out of Brexit, if anything at all. The worst-case scenario is instead very gloomy. But there are still large uncertainties that hopefully will be resolved in 2017.

Ricardo Reis, professor of economics, London School of Economics

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

I did not expect such a hard Brexit stance by the new government, neither such an anti-liberal and interventionist set of policies as were discussed at the Tory convention. Both would lead me to revise forecasts downwards significantly. I am still giving the government the benefit of the doubt though.

David Riley, head of credit strategy, BlueBay Asset Management

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

More pessimistic in terms of the UK’s long-term economic prospects outside the EU than I was twelve months ago. The UK government has failed to articulate a coherent vision of a post-EU economic and social model for the UK and appears ill-equipped to negotiate a favourable Brexit outcome for the UK with EU policymakers whose stance towards the UK appear to be hardening.

Philip Rush, chief economist, Heteronomics

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

Immigration controls continue to seem likely, which will weigh on GDP, though not necessarily per worker. A new association agreement will be difficult and is likely to be negotiated separately from the withdrawal treaty under Article 50. In the long run, I continue to believe a reasonable deal can be reached. The opportunity cost of this relative to EU membership could be small relative to the sovereignty and social gains perceived by many people.

Andrew Scott, professor, London Business School

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

Short term = driven by negotiations, medium term is dealing with shock of Brexit longer term is about probable absence of easy trade with Europe. Short and medium term driven by political updates and likelihood of deal. Long term is pure supply side effect of less trade with rich neighbour and is around 0.25% per year off our growth. this hasn't altered as no signs we will get easy access. the path before the long run is much more variable

Andrew Sentance, senior economic adviser, PwC

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

I don’t think we have learnt anything new over the past 12 months about the UK’ economic prospects outside the EU — so my views are unchanged from a year ago. I do not see the UK’s prospects outside the EU as particularly positive, though there is more likely to be a slow drag on growth from uncertainty and disruption to trade/investment flows, rather than a short, sharp shock.

Philip Shaw, chief economist, Investec

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

About the same — longer-term we would still see average GDP growth running modestly below where it would be had the UK voted to remain in the EU. We have barely more clarity over possible post-Brexit arrangements than we had a year ago — currently there is a lot of noise but very little signal over factors such as tariffs, non-tariff boundaries, customs arrangement and labour supply. The outlook would look somewhat more comfortable were we to begin to see a positive export response to the drop in sterling. Indeed we cannot yet be 100% certain that the depreciation in the pound will be a net positive to growth.

Andrew Simms, co-director, New Weather Institute

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

Official optimism from the UK government over negotiating Brexit appears either disingenuous or extremely naive to anyone with a wisp of experience of trade negotiations. If it is a case of being disingenuous to save political face, the sheer lack of public realism demonstrates a kind of poor management of expectations that is likely to feed a creeping disillusionment in the process, as deadlines are missed and compromises made. If simply naive — and it is publicly recognised that Whitehall chronically lacks negotiating capacity — it raises the spectre of levels of incompetence that make it impossible to be optimistic about the UK’s long-term economic prospects.

Don Smith, chief investment officer, Brown Shipley

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

Less optimistic. Opinion polls in the run-up to and beyond the referendum have highlighted that public opinion appears to favour immigration control over access to the single market. In addition, the emerging threat of populism to the longer-term viability European Union could generate a more inward-looking protectionist perspective from EU governments. Both these factors threaten the UK’s negotiating stance with the EU and appear to lessen the likelihood of a favourable trade deal that would allow a compromised position from the EU on access to the single market.

Andrew Smith, chief economic adviser, Industry Forum

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

Twelve months ago I was deeply pessimistic and I remain so. My assessment is still that Brexit will make us poorer than otherwise by lowering the UK’s long-run growth rate through weaker investment, productivity and labour force growth (assuming the government succeeds in curtailing immigration). In addition, there is scope for considerable short-term damage as Brexiters have clearly underestimated the complexity and likely length of time negotiations for new trade arrangements, both with the EU and third countries, will take.

Peter Spencer, professor of economics, University of York

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

I’m more pessimistic than 12 months ago. My view on the threat to trade, investment and living standards is the same as it was 12 months ago. But my worry is that this was not recognised by voters and does not even seem to be apparent to the government now. The general feeling seems to be that it’s in the economic interests of the EU27 to give the UK a good exit deal. But I don’t think that we have ever understood the European project and would be surprised if the Article 50 negotiations lead to a nice quick deal. I’m worried about how decision-takers will react as this becomes apparent, with nothing to fall back on but the WTO.

James Sproule, chief economist, Institute of Directors

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

Clearly initial post Brexit forecasts were unduly pessimistic, where we go now is a key question. Short term there are a lot of unanswerable questions (triggering caution), longer term if challenges are grasped, our entrepreneurism and economic agility give every reason for an optimistic future.

Gary Styles, director, GPS Economics

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

The lack of clarity on the direction of Brexit negotiations and the obvious impact on economic uncertainty look set to hold back economic growth further in the coming months. During this period the UK is likely to be more susceptible to external economic shocks. Given that the OBR’s official projections are already lacklustre for both 2017 and 2018 this only adds to the medium term risks.

Paolo Surico, professor of economics, London Business School

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

While the uncertainty associated with the specific terms of Brexit does not seem to have materialised (at least not yet), I anticipate tough rounds of negotiations between EU and UK during the two years after triggering Article 50. During these intense negotiations, it may become apparent that any possible new deal with EU will require significantly longer time than previously anticipated, not only for the political message at stake but also, and perhaps more importantly, because of the extremely large number of complicated aspects which require to be ironed out and agreed. This will generate further uncertainty and instability on what the UK model may look like after two years of triggering Article 50, which I expect may deter a significant portion of international investors to consider the UK as a palatable destination for their business activities.

Silvana Tenreyro, professor of economics, London School of Economics

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

My pessimism regarding Brexit has not moved much: I think it will have a negative impact on the UK economy and Europe more generally

Phil Thornton, director, Clarity Economics

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

Unless the laws of economics have been rewritten, the strong performance of the UK economy post-Brexit is pain deferred rather than pain averted. The negative impacts will be in line with what were expected 12 months ago but will come later. A lot of the strong performance is due to the decisive action by the Bank of England in August rather than self-perpetuating endogenous resilience.

Kitty Ussher, managing director, Tooley Street Research Ltd

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

I am pleasantly surprised that the short-term shock to confidence lasted a matter of weeks rather than months. But in the long term its hard to imagine a scenario that has greater trade and openness than would otherwise have been the case so I remain of the view that our long term growth rate will be a notch lower due mainly to the lessened spur to innovation and productivity from lower competitive pressures in the economy. This hasn’t changed from last year, because we have no new information as to the nature of our long-term trading relationships

Bart van Ark, chief economist, The Conference Board

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

We adjusted our medium term growth projections (2017-2021 and 2022-2026) downwards by about 0.5 percentage point to between 1.3-1.5 % GDP growth. The main reason is weaker growth in investment (about 0.7 per cent over next five years) and somewhat slower growth in total factor productivity (about 0.3 per cent over next 10 years) — the remainder coming from (slowing) growth in labour supply supported by a modest improvement in educational attainment levels of the labour force.

John Van Reenen, professor of economics, MIT

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

UK seems to be moving to the most economically damaging form of a hard Brexit. Our analysis is here http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit08_book.pdf on the long-term effects of Brexit suggesting losses of up to 9.5% of income AFTER UK has left. People seem to believe that since economy has not taken a big hit in the months since Vote everything will be fine, forgetting that the UK has not yet left the EU. Government seems to believe it has a mandate to pursue drastically cutting EU immigration which is incompatible with membership Single Market.

Daniel Vernazza, lead UK economist, UniCredit

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

I have not changed my mind. There are likely to be long-run costs to the UK from leaving the EU as it will almost certainly result in a less open UK economy. It will reduce domestic output and raise domestic prices.

John Vickers, warden, All Souls College, Oxford

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

(I note the question is premised on Brexit.) The chance of good future trading relationships look even more remote, in part because of the ugly politics of immigration. Unless that changes it’s hard to see how we can stay in the single market.

Keith Wade, chief economist, Schroders

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

although the economy has held up so far that owes much to the cut in interest rates and fall in the pound. The signs are that negotiations with the EU will be drawn out and unlikely to be completed within the 2 year timeframe. The uncertainty will drag on activity and jobs will start to drift away.

Peter Warburton, director, Economic Perspectives

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

Credit conditions are the most important driver of economic growth in mature advanced economies. UK credit conditions have eased since the spring, with credit and monetary acceleration, a Bank Rate cut and more QE. Nominal GDP growth will strengthen in 2017, but most of this will be down to inflation.

Martin Weale, professor, King’s College London

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

The evidence that Brexit will damage long-term performance is substantial, and the experience of the last two quarters has no bearing on this.

Simon Wells, chief European economist, HSBC

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

No change in our underlying view that leaving the EU could cause significant changes to the UK’s trading relations and labour supply.

Peter Westaway, chief European economist, Vanguard

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

The first point to make is that 12 months ago, I didn’t think this question was going to matter!

Now I know it does, I would say that long-term prospects are worse than I previously thought. The long-term prospects for UK GDP are largely determined by the trade deal which the U.K. Is able to strike with the EU. Currently, it appears more likely that the deal will be closer to the more costly “”Hard Brexit”” outcome.

Compared to 12 months ago too, due to the comprehensive analysis outlined in the much aligned HM Treasury research on the costs of Brexit (published in April), I have a better understanding of the deleterious productivity-reducing consequences of Brexit.

Matt Whittaker, chief economist, Resolution Foundation

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

The fact that consumer confidence has remained high following the referendum result has helped avoid any significant short-term Brexit effect and reduces the chances of an — always unlikely — immediate recessionary spiral.

But what’s become clear is that delivering Brexit will be every bit as difficult as imagined. Coming on top of productivity growth that has disappointed yet again over the past 12 months, the prospect of further reducing the country’s long-term productive potential by leaving the EU feels more dangerous now than it ever did.

John Whittaker, senior teaching fellow, Lancaster University

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

We were all aware of the difficulties of negotiating the terms of Brexit and these have not worsened. One can take encouragement from positive attitudes to post-Brexit trade with the UK expressed by a number of non-EU countries. A freer-trading less-regulated Britain remains an attractive prospect.

Mike Wickens, emeritus professor of economics, University of York

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

A year ago there were two incompatible scenarios with potentially different outcomes for growth: Brexit or remain. While expecting slightly lower growth with Brexit, the Treasuries negative predictions were greatly exaggerated due to their increasing lack of macroeconomic competence, and so it has proved.

Neil Williams, group chief economist, Hermes Investment Management

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

There was never a good time financial markets-wise to have an EU-leave vote, but we probably chose the worst of times, given the upsurge of anti-establishment feeling in the US and Europe’s heavy election calendar in 2017. Without care, an unhelpful jigsaw piece that prolonged the 1930s depression but was largely absent from 2008-09 — retaliatory trade protectionism — might just come crashing into place.

Professor Trevor Williams, visiting professor, University of Derby

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

The effects of Brexit will be negative once Article 50 is triggered, due to ongoing uncertainty, the short term adjustment to the negotiations will keep growth weaker than otherwise.

Stephen Wright, professor of economics, Birkbeck, University of London

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

The impacts in either direction were always overstated.

Linda Yueh, adjunct professor of economics, London Business School

Feel about the same as 12 months ago

Access to global markets is the key to the UK’s long-term economic prospects. So, on the positive side there is undoubtedly a renewed vigour for striking international trade and investment deals, especially in fast-growing parts of the world and in the trade in services. However, it is likely to take longer than the rather optimistic assessments of how quickly these negotiations can be done.

Azad Zangana, senior European economist and strategist, Schroders Investment Management

More pessimistic than 12 months ago

Given that senior members of the government are contemplating a hard Brexit, it is hard to find reasons for optimism. A unilateral withdrawal was thought of as politically unacceptable before the referendum, but the Prime Minister’s priorities suggest that this will be the starting position of the UK’s negotiation. Limits on immigration now seem inevitable, which will reduce the growth in the working age population, tax revenues and productivity. All of which would lead us to downgrade our long-term growth forecast.