Anatomy of a coup plot: how Brazil’s Bolsonaro tried to cling to power

For months before Brazil’s most recent presidential election, hints and warnings mounted that then-president Jair Bolsonaro was plotting a coup to stay in power.

An explosive federal police investigation this week revealed just how close Latin America’s largest nation came to a democratic rupture.

Documents released by police and the country’s supreme court on Thursday allege that military officers and political allies of the former president in 2022 developed a detailed plot to overturn the results of the election, which Bolsonaro lost to leftwing leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Senior military figures would have deployed “troops on the ground”, police said, as part of the scheme. The coup plotters would have arrested judicial and congressional leaders, sought to discredit military officers opposed to the coup, and finally enshrined Bolsonaro’s right to stay in power.

The plot was developed in the run-up to the October 2022 election, but was formalised shortly after Lula’s victory with a draft decree outlining the plans.

“The police released a lot of evidence showing there was a real plan for a coup. There were draft plans discussed by the president and military officers and there were discussions of logistics and financing,” said Bruno Carazza, a professor at the Dom Cabral foundation.

“As the coup was already being openly discussed, the next stage would have been the actual attempt.”

The documents were released on Thursday as dozens of federal police raided the homes of military officers who served in the far-right Bolsonaro administration between 2019-22.

Three aides of the former president were arrested and Bolsonaro himself was ordered to surrender his passport, which he subsequently did. He has denied any wrongdoing.

The investigation’s most prominent target was Almir Garnier, head of the navy during the Bolsonaro government, who police cited as being ready “to put troops on the ground” to help the coup succeed, according to the court documents. Garnier did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

The documents also highlight the role of Estevam Theophilo, the head of army ground forces, who pledged to “take measures to secure the coup”. The general has not made any public comment since being linked to the alleged coup attempt.

Referring to the electoral authorities as the vote approached, Paulo Nogueira, Bolsonaro’s defence minister, said the situation was reminiscent of the moment before two opposing forces meet on the battlefield.

“What I feel at this moment is that we are on the line of contact with the enemy,” said Nogueira in a pre-election meeting discussing the potential coup, according to transcripts released by the supreme court. It was not clear how the recordings were obtained.

“I see the armed forces and the ministry of defence in this line of contact. We have to intensify,” said Nogueira, according to the transcript. He could not immediately be reached for comment.

Brazil’s electoral court, which oversees the integrity of elections, was a central target of Bolsonaro and the alleged plotters, who for months had repeatedly claimed — without evidence — that the polls were rigged in Lula’s favour.

In particular, they sought to counter the role of Alexandre de Moraes, a supreme court justice who at the time was head of the electoral body and a vocal defender of election integrity.

According to police, de Moraes was under surveillance by Bolsonaro allies while the coup was being planned. At one point, the judge’s exact itinerary for the next 15 days was known by the alleged plotters.

Once the coup began, the goal would have been to arrest de Moraes, as well as supreme court justice Gilmar Mendes and Rodrigo Pacheco, the head of the Senate.

In one meeting, Augusto Heleno, a general who served as Bolsonaro’s security adviser, suggested using agents from the country’s intelligence service to infiltrate electoral campaigns.

“Whatever has to be done, has to be done before the elections,” he said, according to police transcripts. He did not respond to a request for comment.

Brazil’s last military coup, in 1964, ushered in more than 20 years of military rule. The country still lives with the legacy of that period, analysts said.

“It is an institutional challenge for Brazil to keep the military away from politics,” said Carazza at the Dom Cabral foundation. “During Bolsonaro’s term, the military took a lot of power and were able to influence politics. Facing the possibility [that] Bolsonaro could be defeated, they decided to act to stay in power.”

As part of the plan, the alleged plotters proposed the abolition of democracy, with Bolsonaro — a former army captain — remaining as president. In this new arrangement, the army would act as a “moderating power”.

After Lula won the vote in October 2022, the plot fizzled out because Bolsonaro feared that he did not have enough support from the army. He also lost room for manoeuvre once Lula’s victory was quickly recognised by a broad array of political leaders in Brasília.

The US, which was a pivotal backer of the 1964 coup, also warned Bolsonaro and his allies, publicly and behind the scenes, not to try to cling on to power.

“It was an extremely dangerous attempt, but it was badly orchestrated because they ended up putting the cart before the horse,” said Eduardo Grin, professor of political science at the Getulio Vargas Foundation. “First they wanted to do the coup and then find people to support it.”

In December 2022, Bolsonaro left Brazil for the US and stayed for three months, missing Lula’s inauguration in January 2023.

The arrests and seizure of Bolsonaro’s passport point to the potential for the former leader himself to be detained, said political analysts.

“Investigations will surely advance in the coming weeks and months,” said Christopher Garman of the Eurasia Group. “But everything points to growing odds of Bolsonaro being arrested.”

Grin said more evidence about the alleged coup plot and the involvement of other politicians would surface in the coming weeks and months.

“This is the tip of the iceberg,” he said.

Additional reporting by Beatriz Langella