EU Liberals head warns of a return to the 1930s in upcoming elections

Good morning. France’s government is in the midst of a cabinet reshuffle triggered by the resignation of its prime minister yesterday. And Mario Draghi, the man who saved the euro, is being weighed up as a potential future European Council president as the long tussle for the EU’s next slate of top jobs begins.

Today, Laura and our parliament correspondent interview the head of the chamber’s Liberal group, while our Athens correspondent reports on a subtle but critical shift in the continent’s raging immigration debate.

Back to the future

June’s elections could result in pro-Europeans losing their grip on the European parliament for the first time, says Liberal group leader Stéphane Séjourné, as he warned of a possible return to the “radicalism” of the 1930s, write Andy Bounds and Laura Dubois.

Context: Polls show that the far right could push Séjourné’s Renew group into fourth place, threatening its joint majority with the centre-right EPP and centre-left Socialists. The Eurosceptic ECR should also make gains, undermining the centrist coalition’s ability to shape policy and determine top jobs.

“The risk of an ungovernable Europe is real today,” said Séjourné, adding that the populist surge could create an “institutional deadlock” and make it hard for the EU to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

However, he said the polls could change if pro-Europeans fought an energetic campaign. “I think that the idea that history repeats itself is not true. But I don’t want to find myself in the same conditions as the 1930s.”

“So we have a collective responsibility . . . to convince people that there are other alternatives to radicalism, to extremes,” the French lawmaker said.

“I tell my colleagues that we must go from convinced Europeans to convincing Europeans as well.”

Séjourné, a lawyer who is close to French President Emmanuel Macron, admitted his party faced an uphill battle in France, where the far-right Rassemblement National of Marine Le Pen is around 10 points ahead in the polls for the June 6-9 vote.

However, he argued that the big problems facing his country and Europe — including immigration, climate change, the threat from Russia — required action on a European level.

“Populists and the extreme right have relied primarily on the inability [of national governments] to solve problems.”

Renew would draw up a manifesto in March with European solutions to these issues. He also welcomed the announcement by Charles Michel, president of the European Council and fellow Liberal, to run for parliament.

“An election is never won and never lost,” he said. “It’s a question of political will and campaign dynamics.”

The party would choose at least one lead candidate for the election EU-wide, but could have more — possibly with a pick for each of the top EU jobs at the council, the European Commission, and parliament.

Chart du jour: Green tariffs

The EU has imposed the world’s first ever tax on imports of carbon-intensive products like steel. The move is seen as a leveller for European companies, who are already paying for their carbon emissions. It could also nudge countries worldwide to start taxing carbon emissions.

New talking points

For those closely watching the debate on migration in Europe, a conference held on the topic in Greece yesterday marked a shift in rhetoric, writes Eleni Varvitsioti.

Instead of simply repeating the oft-heard statements on protecting the EU’s external borders, Greece’s Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and migration minister Dimitris Kairidis as well as EU home affairs commissioner Ylva Johansson focused on the benefits of legal migration.

Context: The number of asylum applications lodged in the EU has increased this year, prompting politicians in several European countries to call for stricter migration rules. In December, the EU agreed reforms of its common asylum system, which are currently being fine-tuned.

Mitsotakis yesterday warned against populism which “easily blames every problem of our society on the anonymous foreigner”.

Greece recently passed a bill granting three-year residency and work permits to migrants who have been staying in Greece irregularly, to plug widening labour market gaps.

Commissioner Johansson said legal migration to the EU dwarfed irregular entries, and more people were needed to come work in the EU.

“In an ordinary year, we have around 3.5mn legal migrants coming and about 300,000 irregular coming,” Johansson said. “The legal migration works very well but is not enough because for demographic reasons, the population of working age in the EU will decrease by one million per year.”

Johansson said that legal migration therefore needed to increase by one million people per year. “That’s a challenge to do it in an orderly way.”

Kairidis however said that quirks in the system made this difficult, as the renewal of legal permits could take much longer than an asylum decision.

“That’s unacceptable,” the Greek minister said. Speeding up processes will be the “great challenge for 2024”.

What to watch today

1. EU home affairs commissioner Ylva Johansson meets officials on a trip to Cyprus.

2. Finland’s President Sauli Niinistö hosts Japan’s foreign minister Yōko Kamikawa in Helsinki.

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