Concern for Ukraine is no longer enough — the west’s diplomats must act

The writer is a novelist based in Kyiv and author of ‘Death and the Penguin’

After Vladimir Putin recognised the separatist republics yesterday and sent in Russian troops, American diplomats who had previously moved from Kyiv to Lvіv, in western Ukraine, decided to start spending their nights in Poland. It’s 90 minutes by car from Lviv to Poland. There are long queues at the border crossings, but I am sure that US diplomats will be allowed to skip the line in both directions. They will need to get a good night’s sleep because right now they have to be super-vigorous, even aggressive.

In the course of Ukraine’s eight-year confrontation with Russia, Ukrainians have got used to variations in the way friendly countries support them. “We express deep concern about Russia’s actions.” This well-known phrase has become a symbol of European reaction to Russian policies and speaks volumes about the attitude of political leaders and diplomats towards Ukraine. It has left little doubt in the minds of Ukrainians that it makes no sense to expect more from Europe than “concern”. 

That same “concern” has also served as a signal to Russia that no serious consequences would result from its actions against Ukraine. While Russia was building the Nordstream 2 gas pipeline to Germany, French Champagne producers were printing new labels for bottles, so as to come in line with a Russian law decreeing that only Russian producers can sell their sparkling wine as “champagne”. 

Against the backdrop of this weak European response, the diplomatic efforts of the US, Great Britain, Canada and Japan stand out more favourably. These countries have reacted much faster to changes in the border situation. The voices of American politicians and diplomats have sounded louder than others, louder and more resolute, especially now that Ukraine finds itself surrounded by Russian troops from the north, east and south.

As soon as the US and Great Britain began to send weapons to Ukraine, the attitude on the ground towards them improved dramatically. Interest in statements from these countries has also grown. At the same time, there has been more criticism of Europe in social networks and online media. Pro-Ukrainian actions and speeches by German diplomats and members of the new government are perceived here with a large degree of scepticism. A symbolic gift from Germany to the Ukrainian army in the form of 5,000 helmets was treated as a joke. Only the belated announcement that the plug has been pulled on Nordstream 2 has caused a lessening in anti-German rhetoric.

Now Ukrainians are looking forward to the reaction of world leaders to Russia’s latest move. This will indicate how events in Donbas and Ukraine more generally will develop. If the promised sanctions turn out to be symbolic and not particularly damaging to the interests of the Russian Federation, then this will be a signal to Putin that he can continue military operations and take Ukraine under his control.

The danger is obvious to Ukraine’s western neighbours Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia, who already feel threatened by the Russian Federation. In the event of a “big war”, aggression will certainly spill out further, beyond the borders of Ukraine. The recently announced mobilisation of the unrecognised Transnistria region poses a threat not only to the southern region of Ukraine, but also to Moldova itself and even to Romania.

Sanctions imposed on Russia in support of Ukraine are important for Ukrainians who understand that they bring financial loss to the countries imposing them. But surely the moment of reckoning has arrived? Surely this invasion does warrant the most severe sanctions? Or does the rollout of Russian troops in the Luhansk and Donetsk territories amount to “a minor incursion” of the type mentioned by President Biden back in January — the type of aggression that doesn’t warrant serious sanctions, but rather leaves everyone trying to decide what to do next?

Not all embassies have left Ukraine for Poland or Romania. The ambassadors of Poland, Lithuania, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina and Kuwait among others are still in Kyiv, despite the threat of an attack on the capital. I think that as long as the embassies remain here, there will be no attack. The diplomatic presence can play a very important stabilising role in the current situation. The return of the embassies that left Kyiv yesterday would be a further sign of stabilisation and a signal that, this time, Ukraine can expect more decisive actions rather than sympathy and concern.