The SNP juggernaut has veered off course

The writer is a Scottish political commentator

Little more than a year ago, the Scottish National party was a seemingly unstoppable political force. Today, the SNP is in the deepest crisis of its 90-year history. Public support is sliding and the sudden resignation of leader Humza Yousaf has exposed bitter divisions among nationalist ranks. John Swinney, deputy to Nicola Sturgeon during her nine years as first minister, is the sole candidate to replace Yousaf. But for all his experience, he may struggle to revive a party which has slumped from dizzying heights.

After becoming the largest party in the Holyrood parliament in 2007, the nationalists swiftly supplanted Labour as the dominant political power in Scotland. Over the years that followed, Alex Salmond and then Nicola Sturgeon cemented the party’s position as the preference of almost half of voters. Poll after poll suggested their grip on power in Scotland was unshakeable.

But the SNP’s own narrative — that it’s a uniquely moral and progressive party for a uniquely moral and progressive country — has now been shattered by events. After the chaos of the past 10 days, senior party figures are unanimous in their support for Swinney though his spell as leader between 2000-2004 was a disaster. The situation does not suggest a party overflowing with  talent or ideas.

Yousaf is responsible for his own downfall. His decision to end the power-sharing agreement with the Scottish Greens, which deprived him of a governing majority, blew up in his face. Attempts over last weekend to build bridges were entirely unsuccessful and Yousaf fell on his sword.

But the crisis in Scottish nationalism began under Sturgeon, who replaced Salmond as SNP leader and first minister after defeat in the 2014 independence vote.

Salmond increased support by recognising the power — and responding to the desires — of small-c conservative Scotland. Policies such as free university tuition and prescriptions appealed to the suburban middle classes. With Sturgeon as his deputy and Swinney as a sober finance secretary, Salmond built a fortress on the middle ground.

When Sturgeon took over, she promised to respect the referendum result — 55-45 in favour of the staying in the UK — and govern for all Scots, regardless of their position on the constitutional question.

This pledge lasted longer than a Liz Truss premiership but only just. While leader, Sturgeon repeatedly promised a second referendum that she had no power to deliver. Meanwhile, she moved her party to the left, basing her arguments on the myth of a radical Scotland, wildly different in its views and instincts to England. The policy agenda, including a failed attempt to reform the Gender Recognition Act, set her at odds with many of the voters who put the nationalists in power.

Swinney has already made clear he intends to set a course back towards the electorate, declaring that he stands with “the majority” in the “moderate, centre-left of politics”. He warned there was work to do persuading more Scots to back independence.

Repeated election victories may — understandably — have given the impression that Sturgeon had her finger on Scotland’s pulse. But the reality was that, post-referendum, Scots divided behind the parties which represented their views on the constitution. This allowed Sturgeon to demand she be judged on her record on education, safe in the knowledge that almost half the voters wouldn’t look too hard and would continue to back the nationalists regardless of policy failures.

And so Sturgeon travelled the world, an admired ambassador for a successful, progressive Scotland that existed only in imagination. And, all the while, the nationalists — fearful that difficult reforms might backfire and stall independence plans — neglected the NHS, education and economy.

When she resigned last February, Yousaf was the continuity candidate but foolishly he then tried to govern as a continuity national leader. He pressed on with her agenda, promising independence was one last heave away (it wasn’t) and pursuing controversial policies on gender and hate speech when voters’ priorities were the cost of living, education and health.

In a bizarre development, Police Scotland raided SNP headquarters and the Glasgow home Sturgeon shares with her husband, former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell, investigating allegations of financial impropriety. Murrell has now been charged with embezzlement.

Swinney will inherit a party divided both on how to achieve independence and on the so-called culture war, with Scottish Labour resurgent. He may be able to slow the SNP’s decline but there is very little chance of him being the leader to take Scotland out of the UK.  Senior figures now accept the independence argument is dead for a generation. Privately, they admit they’ve nobody but themselves to blame.