Joe Biden fights for his political future

Good morning and welcome to US Election Countdown — it’s great to be back with you after the long weekend! Today, let’s talk about: 

• Biden’s counterattack

• The Trump family’s Middle East aspirations

• How to lose an election in two hours

Joe Biden is trying desperately to salvage his campaign. And make no mistake — this week is critical for his political future.

The president kicked off a combative new offensive to hold on to his candidacy yesterday as he attacked his Democratic critics, vowed to stay in the 2024 race and called for renewed party unity [free to read].

Biden stressed in a letter to congressional Democrats that he’s committed to “running this race to the end”, warning that “any weakening of resolve or lack of clarity about the task ahead only helps [Donald] Trump and hurts us”.

There’s no way around it: his hold on the Democratic leadership is still slipping after his recent media appearances assuaged no one. The party is divided between those who’ve called for him to drop out, those who’ve promised to stand by him and those who haven’t said either way.

As the counterattack began and lawmakers were back on Capitol Hill following the holiday weekend, one Democratic powerbroker suggested that we may be approaching the end of Biden’s candidacy:

Unless there are data that show our chances of success in the House and Senate haemorrhaging, I think it would be very hard to move the President and his family off of where they are.

But I think that we will see that.

For his part, the president is fed up with his debate performance dominating the conversation, even though he’s failed to quell the party and donor rebellion that has formed in its wake.

“The question of how to move forward has been well-aired for over a week now,” Biden wrote. “And it’s time for it to end.” 

He’s “getting so frustrated by the elites” in the party who want him out, and even dared them to put forth another candidate: “Run against me. Go ahead. Announce for president. Challenge me at the convention,” Biden told MSNBC, the cable television network watched by many Democrats.

But every move he makes will be scrutinised like never before — especially his expected press conference during this week’s Nato summit in Washington, where he will be unscripted.

Campaign clips: the latest election headlines

• Could Democrats stay united if Biden is toppled? [Free to read]

• The president has told donors that he’s “done talking about the debate”. (Politico)

• But donors are still shifting their money away from Biden. (Bloomberg)

• Biden’s re-election strategy was focused on convincing voters that Trump is unfit for office — that might not work now. (NYT)

• Trump has proposed a pared-down platform for the Republican National Convention that scales back language on abortion and same-sex marriage. (Washington Post)

• Here’s how US senator JD Vance shot to the top of Trump’s vice-presidential shortlist. (WSJ)

Behind the scenes

The Trumps want to do more business in the Middle East, reviving concerns about potential conflicts of interest should the family patriarch make it back to the White House.

The Trump Organization, founded by the ex-president and run by his sons Donald Jr and Eric, has struck deals with Dar Global — a London-listed Saudi Arabian real estate group — for a luxury resort in Oman and a Trump Tower in Jeddah.

Eric Trump told the FT’s Chloe Cornish that:

We will definitely be doing other projects in this region . . . This region has explosive growth, and that’s not stopping anytime soon.

Trump already has a golf course in ritzy Dubai with local developer Damac.

Along with these projects, Jared Kushner, the candidate’s son-in-law, has a hedge fund that has raised $2bn from Riyadh, leading critics to say that a re-elected Trump could be susceptible to foreign influence.

Eric Trump also argued that the family company was undamaged by the civil and criminal cases against his father in the US, and that lenders Deutsche Bank and Axos had stood by the company.

The younger Trump claimed:

We’re sitting on virtually no debt . . . I paid off somewhere in the magnitude of 400 million bucks worth of debt over the last couple years, built an absolute war chest of cash.

Datapoints

Polling since the debate has shown a steep drop in support for Biden. His rival is now ahead of him in every swing state — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — according to averages from FiveThirtyEight.

Trump’s national polling lead has also grown.

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On June 27, the night of the debate, Trump was polling at 41.1 per cent to Biden’s 40.9. By July 6, Trump was up to 42.2 per cent, while his successor fell to 39.6 per cent.

The White House has blamed Biden’s abysmal debate performance on a cold and exhaustion from a gruelling international travel schedule in the weeks before the face-off.

He’s since appeared stronger and more with it in campaign stops in North Carolina and Wisconsin — but those events featured a teleprompter. Instead, supporters want him to prove himself without teleprompters as a crutch.

Trump’s campaign staff and surrogates will be licking their lips, hungrily waiting to pounce on any Biden flub this week that can be clipped into a viral video about his age.

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Viewpoints

• As Trump campaigns on alarmism about immigrants, Rana Foroohar reminds us that they are key to our economy and have the ability to ease labour shortages and even inflation.

• Biden biographer Evan Osnos wonders at what point political conviction morphs into denial. (The New Yorker) 

• Graeme Wood argues that Biden would preserve his dignity if he released his delegates and ran in an open convention. (The Atlantic)

• Sarah Churchwell writes that a lack of understanding of the country’s history among US voters is contributing to the political chaos we’re experiencing. 

• While Trump 2.0 wouldn’t be risk-free for the US economy, Edward Yardeni argues that a repeat of a positive market outcome is certainly possible.

• The Biden debacle has made clear that short-termism makes for bad politics, writes Jemima Kelly.