GSK raises annual profit forecasts after strong vaccine sales

GSK has lifted its full-year profit forecast after the world’s first jab for the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) helped power a strong third quarter of vaccine sales at the UK drugmaker.

The pharmaceutical company now expects annual revenue to increase by 12 to 13 per cent, up from its previous guidance of 8 to 10 per cent. Adjusted earnings per share will grow between 17 and 20 per cent, exceeding an earlier expectation of 14 to 17 per cent, the company said on Wednesday. 

In the third quarter, sales of vaccines increased by 33 per cent from a year earlier, driven by Arexvy, the group’s the newly launched jab for RSV. GSK said it benefited from some initial inventory stocking for Arexvy after its launch this quarter and expects full year sales to be between £900mn and £1bn.

RSV, a common respiratory condition, affects about 64mn people worldwide and causes about 160,000 deaths, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It hits the elderly and infants the hardest.  

GSK beat Pfizer to market with the first vaccine for RSV and generated more than £700mn ($850mn) in Arexvy sales in the quarter, compared with Pfizer’s shot Abrysvo, which made $375mn. GSK said it received two out of three US retail prescriptions written for the vaccine. But Pfizer believes it will have an added advantage as its vaccine can also be taken by pregnant women to protect their infants from the disease.  

Emma Walmsley, GSK’s chief executive, said the over-60s market is far larger than the maternal market — with about 83mn people in the US, compared to about 1.5mn pregnant women — and that new data means the company may also be able to address the over-50s, adding an extra 14mn Americans to the potential target population. GSK believes Arexvy could reach peak sales of $3bn a year.

“The really key point here at GSK is this pivot to the prevention agenda, which is just better for everybody burdened with healthcare systems, budgets, patients, GPs, and we’re really excited about the whole pipeline that we have ahead,” she said.

Meanwhile, the pharmaceutical industry is negotiating a new deal with the UK government over how much it must pay as a clawback tax, after the rebate on the NHS drug bill soared last year. Walmsley said that the negotiations are at a “very important stage”.

“I think both sides have shown flexibility, but it’s now really vital that we reach an agreement that protects the UK position as a competitive and very positive place to do life sciences,” she said on a media call. “The heart of that is really making sure that a rebate restores the UK to a more reasonable relative position compared to other similar countries.”

GSK said that sales of its shingles shot, Shingrix, also climbed in the quarter. Overall revenues hit £8.1bn in the period, surpassing expectations of £7.8bn, and 10 per cent higher than a year ago. Adjusted earnings per share were 50.4p, above the 46p analysts predicted and 17 per cent higher than a year ago.  

The UK-based company will pay a dividend of 14p for the third quarter and expects to pay 56.5p for the full year. GSK said its forecasts exclude sales of Covid-19 products.