Keir Starmer hails Rutherglen victory as sign Labour is heading for power

The Labour party has hailed its overwhelming victory in a critical by-election in Scotland as proof it is heading for Downing Street, after a 20-point swing that Sir Keir Starmer said “blew the doors off”.

After Labour exceeded expectations with almost 59 per cent of the vote in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, pollsters said the result could give the party the chance of winning dozens of seats in Scotland in a general election next year.

“Because we’ve changed, we are now the party of the change here in Scotland, we’re the party of change in Britain, Starmer told party members at a victory rally in the seat, near Glasgow. Referring to the size of the win, the Labour leader added: “You blew the doors off.”

At this week’s Conservative party conference, prime minister Rishi Sunak sought to portray himself as an agent of change, despite his party’s 13 years in office, with various new policies.

But the scale of Labour’s success in the Rutherglen vote has given Starmer a boost as he heads into his own party’s conference in Liverpool, which starts on Sunday.

A strong performance in Scotland in the general election would bolster Labour’s chances of forming a majority government and could end the dominance in the country of the pro-independence Scottish National party.

Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, said that if Labour’s performance was replicated across Scotland it could win 42 Westminster seats — compared with just one before Thursday night.

“As to whether or as yet Labour have necessarily sealed the deal with the electorate, that I think looks uncertain,” he cautioned.

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Pollsters also warned against over-interpreting a single by-election result on a relatively low turnout of just 37.2 per cent.

Labour is now hoping it can keep up its momentum in two by-elections in England on October 19.

In mid-Bedfordshire, where former Tory MP Nadine Dorries resigned, Labour is competing with the Liberal Democrats and risks fatally splitting the anti-Tory vote.

But in Tamworth, near Birmingham, Labour are the clear challenger to the Tories, whose former MP Chris Pincher was forced to quit in disgrace.

In Rutherglen, Labour’s Michael Shanks won 17,845 votes, or 58.6 per cent of the vote, gaining a majority of over 9,000. The SNP’s Katy Loudon received 8,399 votes, or 27.6 per cent, in a seat it won by more than 5,000 votes in 2019.

The Conservatives’ share collapsed from 15 to 3.9 per cent in a sign of tactical voting by unionists.

Tory rail minister Huw Merriman said: “I’m not surprised to see all of those who disagree with the SNP crowding around one particular candidate — and that candidate has succeeded. That’s how by-elections work.”

But Christine Jardine, Lib Dem MP for Edinburgh West, said Labour would “capitalise” on the SNP’s struggles. “The SNP star is on the wane and the Conservatives will have to prepare for Labour winning plenty of seats,” she told the FT.

In a further bad omen for Sunak, a YouGov poll for The Times on Friday suggested the Conservative conference had failed to make any dent in the Labour party’s 21-point national lead.

The Rutherglen by-election was sparked by the ousting of former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier for breaking Covid-19 rules in 2020.

The result is a heavy blow for SNP leader Humza Yousaf ahead of his party’s conference next week in Aberdeen.

Yousaf’s time in office has been dominated by a struggle to stabilise the party and an escalating police investigation into party finances since the resignation of his predecessor Nicola Sturgeon in March.

Sturgeon and two other senior party figures were arrested this year as part of a police probe into the party’s finances. All three were released without charge pending further investigation. Sturgeon has denied any wrongdoing.

Yousaf said his party would take the result “on the chin”, but added that the circumstances of the by-election were “always very difficult” for the SNP.

A poll for Redfield & Wilton Strategies published on Friday put the SNP two points ahead of Labour in Scotland, down from a lead of about 10 points at the start of the year.

Labour held a majority of Westminster seats in Scotland until 2015, when its share of the vote collapsed after the independence referendum held the previous year.