Bulgaria vote buoys prospect of EU expansion into western Balkans

Bulgaria’s parliament has voted to drop the country’s veto on the start of EU accession talks with North Macedonia, in a potential breakthrough for the bloc’s efforts to kick-start the stalled process of enlargement to the western Balkans.

Bulgaria’s reformist prime minister Kiril Petkov described the vote on Twitter as a “historic decision”, saying the “integration of the western Balkans is in the strategic interest of the EU”.

Bulgarian MPs voted to lift the veto subject to four conditions that North Macedonia could still reject. The conditions were part of a compromise brokered by France, the holder of the EU’s rotating presidency. Dimitar Kovačevski, North Macedonia’s prime minister, on Thursday described them as “unacceptable”.

The conditions are that the Bulgarian Macedonia minority is recognised in North Macedonia’s constitution; that there was no automatic Bulgarian recognition of the Macedonian language; that protocols governing relations between the two countries are included in the EU negotiating framework; and that the European Commission monitors implementation of the deal.

“It now needs to go to the North Macedonians themselves and they haven’t fully embraced the French compromise given there’s a pill for them to swallow in this,” said an EU diplomat on Friday. “The ball is now in their court.”

Bulgaria had blocked the beginning of membership negotiations with North Macedonia since 2019 because of disputes over interpretations of history and other expressions of national identity in the former Yugoslav republic. The veto meant that membership negotiations with Albania were also frozen, as the EU said it would treat the two countries together.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has added urgency to EU efforts to revive the enlargement process in the western Balkans, with diplomats fearing prolonged paralysis would fuel disillusionment with western alignment and allow Moscow to increase its influence in the region.

French president Emmanuel Macron said at an EU summit in Brussels on Thursday night that the leaders “have collectively put a lot of pressure on Bulgaria these last months” to accept a deal.

Bulgaria’s move was made possible after the opposition GERB party, which vetoed the talks when in power in 2019, on Wednesday U-turned and agreed to lift the blockage. But hours later, in a no-confidence vote, it helped oust Sofia’s reformist government led by Petkov, which had proposed the compromise with Skopje.

The domestic political turmoil in Bulgaria overshadowed a summit of leaders from the EU and western Balkans on Thursday. Albanian prime minister Edi Rama likened EU leaders to a “congregation of priests who were discussing the sex of angels while the walls of Constantinople were falling apart”.

“It’s a very positive sign after all the fuss of yesterday,” the EU diplomat said about Sofia’s parliamentary vote.

Assuming the Bulgarians and North Macedonians agree on a joint protocol, it would pave the way for all 27 member states approving the opening of accession talks.

If Skopje rejects the deal, pressure will grow on Brussels from Albania and EU members in favour of enlargement to decouple its membership bid from North Macedonia’s.

Bulgaria is, meanwhile, heading for a snap election after this week’s no-confidence vote. Although Petkov could try to assemble another coalition, he is expected to resign next week. It would then fall to the opposition GERB to attempt to form a government but analysts say a vote in the autumn — Bulgaria’s fourth since April 2021 — is more probable.