Moderna: good news on skin cancer vaccine is welcome distraction from Covid-19 shot sales woes

Can Moderna be more than a one-hit wonder? The US biotech company hit the ultimate home run when it became one of the first to develop a Covid-19 vaccine. 

But that demand has fallen dramatically. Moderna shares have similarly gone of out favour with investors. The stock, worth nearly $500 at its peak in August 2021, currently trades at less than $87.

This explains why the mRNA technology pioneer has been keen to bring attention to its next major innovation — cancer vaccines. 

New data from Moderna and Merck this week offered a promising update on this front. The companies said Moderna’s mRNA cancer vaccine, when used in concert with Merck’s blockbuster cancer drug Keytruda, helped cut the chance of late-stage skin cancer from returning after three years by 49 per cent. 

Moderna and Merck’s update is encouraging because it suggests the benefits of their treatment are holding up. The two said they plan to test the combination on other types of cancers, including lung cancer.

Moderna boss Stéphane Bancel said he thinks the skin cancer vaccine could launch as early as 2025. But there is a big difference between tailoring a vaccine to specific patients and developing a cost effective cancer vaccine for the masses.

The mRNA-4157 vaccine is ‘personalised’ for the patient, by tailoring it to the specific genetic make-up of each individual’s tumours. In their skin cancer study, patients who received the drugs are those who have already undergone surgery to have their tumours removed. The vaccine is simply aimed at preventing the tumour from coming back.

Whether Moderna likes it or not, investors’ focus will remain on its revenue forecast for Covid shots. These have so far been disappointing. It is expecting just $6bn this year and $4bn in 2024, compared with the $18.4bn it made in 2022.

Nonetheless the latest findings are important. Figuring out how to design a vaccine that can teach immune cells how to recognise and combat tumours could become the next big thing in the $200bn a year oncology drug market.

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