Brexit could be reversed — here’s how
At the height of Britain’s Brexit debate, passions ran so high that some talked of a “new English civil war”. That comparison still intrigues me for one specific reason: the side that won the civil war ultimately lost. King Charles I was executed in 1649. Eleven years later, the English decided they had made a mistake and restored the monarchy.
Could a similar reversal happen with Brexit? I think so.
Seven years after the 2016 referendum, and three years after Brexit actually happened, opinion has shifted markedly. As the academic Matthew Goodwin wrote recently, some 60 per cent of Britons now think Brexit was the wrong decision and would vote to rejoin the EU at a second referendum. An average of recent polls shows 58 per cent of voters not only regretting Brexit, but actively favouring Rejoin.
It is easy to understand why. Brexit was sold as a way of controlling immigration and improving the NHS. But the NHS is now in far worse shape than it was in 2016. Immigration into the UK remains very high, with EU immigrants largely replaced by people from outside the bloc. And the IMF predicts that Britain will have the worst performing economy in the developed world this year.
Demographics and economics suggest that the Rejoin sentiment will strengthen over time. Young voters are the most pro-EU of the lot, with 79 per cent of 18- to 24-year-olds wanting to rejoin. And, sadly, the damage done to the UK economy by Brexit is likely to become increasingly evident.
So far these changes have not filtered through into politics. Daniel Hannan, a prominent Leave campaigner, claimed recently that there was a “plot to overturn Brexit”. If only!
In reality, with roughly two years before an election, the opposition Labour party says that reversing Brexit is out of the question — and talks only of “fixes” to the current deal. Even diehard Remainers often moan that it will take a generation before Britain can consider rejoining the EU.
But this is too fatalistic and too accepting of the mounting damage Brexit is doing. It also ignores the speed with which events and opinion are moving.
The truth is that the marginal “fixes” to Brexit favoured by Labour may not be achievable and would not compensate for exclusion from the EU’s internal market. The public seem to have realised this. Eventually politicians will have to respond — and the idea of rejoining the EU will become mainstream. A large Labour majority at the next election would make that shift easier.
Any campaign to rejoin would face two big further objections. The first and most important is the claim that the EU would not want Britain back. The second is the argument that the British will turn against Rejoin, when they realise what it involves.
European opposition to a British return certainly exists, but can be overstated. Michel Barnier, who led the EU’s Brexit negotiating team, says the door is open for Britain to rejoin the EU “any time”. Guy Verhofstadt, who was head of the European parliament’s Brexit committee, tweeted last week: “I have a dream. Ukraine and Britain joining the EU in the next five years.”
When I rang Philippe Lamberts, co-chair of the Green group in the European parliament, and asked him about Britain rejoining, he replied: “That would be my dream scenario.” Lamberts thinks the five main political groupings in the parliament would all favour British re-entry.
Some EU member states, in particular France, would probably take a different view. The French argue that the British were a pain inside the EU and that the bloc has worked better since Brexit. But French opposition to British membership was worn down in the 1970s and could be again.
Most EU insiders, however, warn that, this time, Britain would not be offered any special deals. There would be no budget rebate; no opt out from the social chapter. Britain would have to accept the free movement of people and, quite probably, the euro.
Some pundits think that once these realities sink in, the British would lose their initial enthusiasm for rejoining the EU. But that is not necessarily the case.
The idea that leaving the EU will dramatically reduce immigration has been disproved. Embracing European social standards may horrify the Tory right, but would probably be popular among most of the electorate.
Even the euro might not be a deal-breaker. I opposed Britain joining the single currency 20 years ago because it was an untried experiment. But the euro is now an established international currency, while the pound looks chronically weak. The young voters who favour Rejoin care more about issues such as the environment than abstract notions of sovereignty.
How could it be done? I would favour a two-referendum process. The first vote could be held in 2026, a decade after the Leave vote of 2016. It would simply give the UK government permission to open negotiations with the EU. A strong vote of approval — say, 60 per cent — might allay some EU scepticism about whether Britain is too divided to deal with. A second referendum would be held on the terms of the Rejoin deal.
It took 11 years for Britain to restore the monarchy. Why not try to beat that by a year — and reverse Brexit inside a decade?
Letters in response to this comment:
Why a British return to the EU fold looks unlikely / From Derrick Wyatt KC, Emeritus Professor of Law, University of Oxford, Adviser, Fide Fundación (Spain), Abingdon, Oxfordshire, UK
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