Death of Iranian President adds to tensions in Middle East

Today’s top stories

• The International Criminal Court’s prosecutor is seeking arrest warrants for five people including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior Hamas leaders, saying he had “reasonable grounds to believe” they bore criminal responsibility for war crimes and crimes against humanity. The US is increasing pressure on Netanyahu to accept a political solution to the war in Gaza.

• Donald Trump’s economic policies, including the introduction of tariffs on all US imports to pay for tax cuts, would disproportionately hit America’s poorest households, according to the Peterson Institute think-tank.

• The British state is guilty of a “chilling” and “pervasive” cover-up of the decades-long infected blood scandal, according to a damning public inquiry that called for a full victim compensation scheme within a year. 

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Good evening.

The death of President Ebrahim Raisi comes at a critical time not only for Iran but also amid heightened tensions across the Middle East over the Israel-Hamas war.

Raisi, who was killed in a helicopter crash at the weekend alongside foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, was a hardliner, closely aligned with supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei in an intricate and opaque power structure that can be a challenge for insiders to understand, let alone the world outside. (Beginners should start with our explainer on who pulls the strings and last week’s Big Read).

As Middle East editor Andrew England writes, from the moment Raisi was elected president in 2021 (on a record-low turnout), he was considered integral to Khamenei’s plans to ensure a smooth succession to the republic’s top post when the 85-year-old supreme leader eventually dies. And although key domestic and foreign policy decisions are ultimately determined by Khamenei, Tehran will be loath to show any signs of weakness or political instability following its sidelining of moderates and reformists and waves of anti-regime protests.

With an emergency election that has to be held within 50 days, Raisi’s death could push Iran’s tense political rivalry among loyalists of the theocratic system to a new level, writes Tehran correspondent Najmeh Bozorgmehr, as well as testing the unity of regime hardliners.

As for foreign affairs, the country, long the target of international sanctions, today received strong messages of support from allies such as China, Russia and Venezuela, underscoring its divisive position in global politics. 

Iran has openly supported militant groups in the “Axis of Resistance” — including Lebanon’s Hizbollah, Iraqi and Syrian militias, Houthi rebels in Yemen and Hamas — as they have carried out attacks against Israeli and US forces. But Tehran has repeatedly insisted that they are acting independently and that it does not want a full-blown regional war or direct conflict with the US. 

It did however launch its first-ever direct attack on Israel last month in response to the Jewish state’s alleged strike on an Iranian consulate in Damascus. The stand-off, which saw Israel and Iran pull back from the brink, did little to raise Tehran’s regional standing, with unease about its behaviour bringing Arab states closer together.

On the positive side, the west will be hoping that recent signs that Iran is willing to engage in “serious dialogue” with the UN’s nuclear watchdog over its atomic programme will continue.

As the FT editorial board has noted however, the danger of provocations and miscalculations between Iran and Israel continues to hang over the region. The persistent threat will be that one misjudges the other’s response to a hostile act, sparking the next escalation, the FT says.

Need to know: UK and Europe economy

Ben Broadbent, a Bank of England deputy governor, confirmed UK interest rates could be cut this summer if the BoE’s forecast of easing inflation proves correct. Annual growth in consumer prices for April is predicted to drop to 2.1 per cent when official figures are published on Wednesday.

Washington’s G7 allies are warming to a US plan to “Trump-proof” tens of billions of dollars in funding to Ukraine before the former president’s potential return to the White House. Under the plan, Kyiv would receive money upfront from a G7 loan, backed by future profits generated from $350bn of frozen Russian assets.

Argentina’s President Javier Milei triggered a diplomatic row with Spain after calling the wife of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez “corrupt” on a visit to Madrid for a rally of the European far right. Spain is Argentina’s second-largest direct foreign investor after the US.

How will the European parliamentary elections change the EU? Join FT journalists and experts on June 12 for a subscriber-exclusive webinar. Register and put your questions to our panel now.

Need to know: Global economy

Taiwan’s incoming president Lai Ching-te starts his first term today under pressure to raise social spending and tackle economic inequality while at the same time meeting US demands to shore up defences against China. Our latest visual journalism story explains the key battlegrounds that could decide a US-China war over Taiwan.

South Africa’s top court has blocked former president Jacob Zuma from standing in this month’s general election because of his prison sentence for refusing to co-operate with a corruption investigation. His uMkhonto WeSizwe (MK) party has surprised analysts by polling above 10 per cent.

Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader was re-elected following a campaign that focused on his stewardship of a tourism-driven economic boom and a crackdown on migrants from neighbouring Haiti.

G20 finance ministers are considering reforms which could bring us a step closer to taxing the super-rich, writes FT commentator Martin Sandbu.

The Economics Show is our new podcast with FT commentator Soumaya Keynes and guests. The series begins with a discussion on whether the US government has borrowed too much.

Need to know: business

Low-cost carrier Ryanair followed rival easyJet in softening forecasts for ticket pricing this summer. After battling for survival during the pandemic, European airlines have been profiting from pent-up travel demand, with a shortage of aircraft giving the industry even more pricing power.

Audit firms failed to raise the alarm before three-quarters of big UK corporate collapses since 2010, according to new research, raising concerns that auditors are failing to perform one of their core functions.

Global investors “are finally waking up” to cheap London-listed stocks as takeover activity picks up, in a sign that Britain’s equity market could soon face a “flood” of investment, asset managers said. Shares are now at the cheapest levels they have been in 50 years.

The culture wars have now reached foodstuffs, with Florida governor Ron DeSantis criminalising the manufacturing and selling of lab-grown meat. One of the few companies with an approved product says however that the move is an own goal that means America is ceding a competitive advantage, just as it did with semiconductors.

After years of hype, AI-powered personal assistants that can do your shopping and book your holiday have come a step closer. Our Big Read explains.

The World of Work

One step forward, two steps back: there are more women on US company boards than ever before but the number of female executives has fallen for the first time in decades, according to new data.

Companies are asking for more executive education courses to be delivered online in a reversal of a post-pandemic trend to return to in-person training, according to the latest FT rankings of business schools. Read more in our Special Report: Executive Education

Ditching regular hours means companies must think of new ways for colleagues to work together. That means fewer meetings — whether in-person, hybrid or virtual — and more detailed memos, instructional videos and collaborative documents.

Making work fun may be seen as trivial but it makes the large slice of life spent toiling much more bearable, writes columnist Pilita Clark.

Some good news

Electrical stimulation to the spinal cord using a new device was found to significantly improve hand and arm function in paralysed patients in the first convincing demonstration of a non-invasive device providing lasting benefits.