The battle for the soul of the SNP

Scotland’s former first minister, Labour’s Lord Jack McConnell, used to say “do less, better”. The trouble for his successors from the Scottish National party, their critics say, is they have been doing plenty, badly.

Independence, in terms of importance for voters, has been falling below core issues such as the economy, causing the SNP to struggle with an electorate concerned about the Scottish government’s delivery in areas such as health, education and transport.

Increasing numbers of independence-supporting voters who switched from Labour to the SNP after the 2014 referendum campaign are reverting back in a bid to oust the Conservative government in Westminster, threatening many lost SNP seats at the upcoming UK general election.

“How can the SNP break the current focus of just getting rid of the Tories,” said Fergus Mutch of True North, a consultancy, and former SNP staffer. “It's a very hard and challenging context.”

Support for the SNP, which swelled after the failure to secure independence in the 2014 referendum, began to crater before Humza Yousaf took over from his predecessor Nicola Sturgeon, declining further through his 13-month tenure.

Latest polling from YouGov, carried out ahead of Yousaf’s resignation as first minister found Labour inching ahead of the SNP by one point at 34 per cent. Labour is targeting as many as 25 seats and could replace the SNP as the largest representative of Scots at Westminster, building momentum towards a race to lead a new government after the Holyrood 2026 elections.

In his resignation speech on Monday, Yousaf said independence was “frustratingly close” but his opponents believe chaos within the SNP has only reinforced the union.

“Like his predecessors, he [Yousaf] spent far too much time obsessing about the break-up of the UK while ignoring the real priorities of people in Scotland, who are living with the failures of 17 years of the SNP in government,” said Pamela Nash, chief executive of Scotland in Union, a pro-UK campaign group based in Scotland, and a Labour candidate for Westminster.

The looser link between support for independence and voting for the SNP has stressed the fractures within the party, from how to secure a second referendum to social issues, no more so than trans rights versus the importance of biological sex.

The power-sharing agreement with the Greens, meant to secure a working majority in parliament to smooth legislation through parliament, ended up exposing these schisms.

“The SNP is a broad church, a balancing act — left versus right, centralists vs decentralists,” said Stephen Noon, a former adviser to an SNP government. “The Green deal put the thumb on one direction, disturbing the natural balance and creating frustration among voices on the opposite sides to the Greens.”

Evidence of this had been building with rebellions among SNP MSPs grouped around Forbes that Yousaf sought to prevent by ending the power-sharing agreement.

Instead, he resigned before facing no confidence votes this week, deciding that “repairing our relationships across the political divide can only be done with someone else at the helm”.

With support for an independent Scotland bubbling around 45-50 per cent, according to polls, SNP strategists believe they still have a deep pool of potential voters to shore up their electoral chances.

The two candidates tipped to replace Yousaf, John Swinney and Kate Forbes, are both likely to continue the new course away from progressive policies initiated by Yousaf as the party focuses on the economy and public services to prevent even more voters shifting to Labour.

Swinney, a former leader of the SNP between 2000-2004 when they were out of government, is regarded as the continuity candidate. He would likely pursue less radical policies than Yousaf, whom he backed in the leadership contest last year.

Forbes, whose internal critics fear would falter because of her conservatism, would tack even further away from the coalition’s progressive social and economic policies, epitomised by gender recognition reform, the hate crime legislation and higher taxes on the wealthy.

They would also take over a minority government freed from the confines of the power-sharing agreement with the Greens, allowing them to be more “fleet of foot” as they pursue a different policy agenda to appeal more broadly to mainstream voters, party strategists say.

“Kate is a great talent, who has the capacity to reach out to people John can’t reach, and he can reach others Kate can’t — so getting Kate in as a senior member of government would be the best outcome,” said Noon.