‘Grossly overestimated’: Sliding Power’s list ‘mistake’ amid question mark over trade gamble
The heat has come on Ken Hinkley this week, most notably from Port Adelaide fans. Pressure naturally falls on the senior coach before anyone when a football club falls in a rut.
But has the Power’s list simply been “overestimated”?
Port Adelaide topped up in the trade period after last year’s straight-sets finals exit — a year it won a club record 13-straight games — with defensive reinforcements Esava Ratugolea and Brandon Zerk-Thatcher plus ruckmen Ivan Soldo and Jordon Sweet.
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They all figured to fill important list chasms, particularly the need for Port to bolster its defence in the clear area that let the club down in 2023.
But 14 games into 2024 and the 8-6 Power look a worse version to last year, and even if they play finals, a rung or two below the true contenders.
This alarming decline in form has resulted in the Power having dropped three games in a row, including a horror-show 79-point home loss to Brisbane last weekend to be suddenly clinging onto a spot in the top eight by percentage.
“The mistake Port Adelaide made is overestimating the list — I think it’s an average list,” freshly-minted Australian Football Hall of Fame Legend Jason Dunstall said on Fox Footy’s On the Couch.
“I’m not being disrespectful to the players who have all played some good football at different stages. But who’s the class?
“You’ve got three young midfielders in (Connor) Rozee, (Zak) Butters and (Jason) Horne-Francis and I reckon (Dan) Houston is a really talented player. No other class jumps out at you.
“I think they’ve grossly overestimated what this list is capable of.”
The above four names were the only Port players mentioned for the club in preliminary discussions from the All-Australian selection panel, which aired on Fox Footy earlier this month.
So is there enough talent below them?
FORWARDS STRUGGLING TO CARRY THE TORCH
As Dunstall highlighted, beyond Port’s star midfield trio, there’s question marks on the rest of the list — key position players in particular — which creates problems when that threesome isn’t up and firing.
This isn’t to say the Power have a bad list, but simply a list that perhaps doesn’t have the same depth of talent as the true flag contenders.
It includes a combination of players falling away from their previous best heights and others not quite taking that next leap.
Up forward, Charlie Dixon, 33, who’s been so crucial to the club’s success under Hinkley as its key cornerstone, has struggled with injury in recent years including kicking 13 goals from 10 appearances this season.
And with Dixon no longer a reliable option in Port’s forward half, big responsibility has been put on the shoulders of Mitch Georgiades and Todd Marshall to carry the torch.
While Georgiades (22 goals from 11 games) and Marshall (20 goals from 14 games) have both produced solid seasons in front of the big sticks, they’re rated as average and below average respectively in their position under AFL Player Ratings.
In Marshall’s case, he’s going backwards after a career-best 45-goal season in 2022, kicking 36 goals last year and on track for around 32 goals this season.
“If you look at the key position players in particular, I think they’re all average. I don’t say this to be disrespectful, but we’re going on their ratings,” Dunstall said.
“We know Dixon is coming towards the end, Georgiades has played some good football at times, as has Marshall. But they’re not consistent nor ones you build a forward line around.”
It’s perhaps shown the pair are better suited to being No. 2 or No. 3 forward options, at least right now, with Georgiades just 22 and in his first year back from an ACL injury, while Marshall is still only 25.
Similarly, the 28-year old Jeremy Finlayson (11 goals from nine games) has struggled to back up last year’s 38-goal season. And outside of Willie Rioli (17 goals from 11 games), 29, there’s not much X-factor by the way of small forwards or otherwise young players coming through to get excited about.
Ollie Lord, 22, has shown potential, but has only made two senior appearances in 2024. And in games where at least one of Marshall and Georgiades are quiet, which other Port forwards can tear a game apart? (Pardon the pun)
Darcy Byrne-Jones (17 goals from 14 games) has played important roles in attack, but the 28-year old feels more like a Mr Fix-it at this stage of his career.
Of the current top eight sides, only Fremantle has scored less points than Port Adelaide in a showing that Hinkley’s offence lacks the same firepower of the best sides.
DEFENSIVE ISSUES REMAIN DESPITE TRADE ADDITIONS
At the other end of the ground, Port Adelaide’s defence has been such a focus. And rightfully so.
For not only is it the area of the ground that’s constantly let the club down in its premiership push of recent years, the club’s investment in last year’s trade period defensive additions left it with a severely depleted draft hand.
Despite spending big on those recruits, Port hasn’t gotten a return on investment, both from individuals and how the backline has functioned as a whole.
There was hope Ratugolea (rated average) and Zerk-Thatcher (rated below average), both 25, could elevate their games at Alberton, but right now appear to be exactly what they’ve been throughout their careers — role players.
While other clubs like Collingwood, Essendon and Sydney have had success in topping up with role players to fill specific needs, the same can’t be said for Port given its defence hasn’t improved in a meaningful way from 2023.
With that in mind, the Power’s defensive system as a whole warrants equal scrutiny.
Another factor is Aliir Aliir, 29, falling away from his previous best All-Australian heights, where he was once regarded as one of the game’s premier key defenders and interceptors.
“Aliir Aliir has gone backwards for mine, I thought he was going to be an elite key defender, but he’s not,” Dunstall said.
“And Zerk-Thatcher and Ratugolea are just battling. They’re all battling.”
Beyond the above names, Kane Farrell, 25, and Miles Bergman, 22, have produced solid seasons without consistently elevating their games. And mid-season draftee Logan Evans, 18, showed promise in last week’s debut against Brisbane in an otherwise forgettable performance for the club.
OTHER RECRUITING QUESTION MARKS
The microscope shouldn’t just come on Port’s defensive recruits.
While hampered by injury, neither Soldo, 28, nor Sweet, 26, have really flourished in the No. 1 ruck role when given the keys.
Soldo had a strong run to start the season, and has largely held the No. 1 ruck mantle, but was dropped ahead of the Lions clash and now faces another stint on the sidelines with scar tissue irritation.
As mentioned, both last year’s draft and the previous year’s — the off-season they brought in Horne-Francis and Rioli — were compromised by the Power due to their aggressiveness on the trade front.
It includes Port having just one selection inside the last top 45 across both years. In other words, it’s two drafts basically wiped out.
And so the club will hope it nailed its picks in the years that followed its 2018 double coup of Rozee and Butters, or risk even bigger problems down the track.
The 2019 National Draft saw Port bring in Bergman (Pick 14), Georgiades (Pick 18), Dylan Williams (Pick 23) and Jackson Mead (Pick 25), with only the former two having established themselves at AFL level.
The Power had just one meaningful pick in the following draft in 2020, selecting Lachie Jones (Pick 16) then Lord (Pick 49). And in 2021 they had just one selection inside the top 50 — drafting Josh Sinn (Pick 12) — before using late selections on Hugh Jackson, Dante Visentini and Jase Burgoyne.
Still early days in their careers, the above names are the ones that’ll be relied on to carry the club into the future when the likes of Travis Boak and Ollie Wines call it quits.
This is perhaps the biggest concern for the Power, for if this current iteration can’t lead the club to success, what’s next? They’ll need to utilise all mechanisms to keep improving the list.
Granted, when you have three of the most exciting midfielders in the game all 24 and under, Port has one of the best assets to build around long term.
But this is a club in it for the now, and as such, can only be assessed on that.