Topline
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s support climbed to 10% this week, according to polling from FiveThirtyEight, as voters appear to turn to the third-party candidate amid mounting concerns over President Joe Biden’s age and mental acuity, and as former President Donald Trump loses some support after his criminal indictment, though Kennedy still has a ways to go to match Biden or Trump.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. climbed to 10% in presidential polls, according to FiveThirtyEight's weighted ... [+]
Key Facts
Kennedy, a longshot candidate, polls at 9.9%, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average, an increase from 9.1% the day of CNN’s first presidential debate on June 27—though he’s a long shot from Biden (39.7%) and Trump (42.1%).
In Georgia, the Kennedy campaign had been reportedly rushing to beat a noon deadline Tuesday for nomination petitions to appear on the ballot, a submission that requires 7,500 signatures from registered voters in the state, though Kennedy’s campaign is pushing for 12,000 signatures, with a goal of $120,000 in donations “needed to fund ballot access.”
Last week, the Kennedy campaign announced it landed a spot on New Mexico’s ballot, following a major signature push and a certification from Democratic Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse—making it the 10th state where Kennedy’s name will appear on the ballot.
Kennedy will also appear on the ballot in California, Colorado, Delaware, Hawaii, Michigan, Minnesota, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Utah, according to his campaign, though Kennedy will be listed as a Libertarian in Colorado and as a member of the third-party Alliance Party in South Carolina.
According to his campaign, Kennedy has collected the necessary signatures in 12 other states, and enough signatures to appear on the ballot in five others (Florida, Idaho, Iowa, Mississippi and New Hampshire), while in North Carolina, the state board of electors is expected to make a decision on Kennedy’s ballot inclusion on Tuesday.
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Key Background
Kennedy, a former environmental attorney, is the nephew of former President John F. Kennedy and the son of 1968 Democratic candidate Robert F. Kennedy, who was fatally shot at a campaign event before the Democratic National Convention. Kennedy launched his 2024 bid as a Democrat last April, though he stood as a longshot to Biden, and faced criticism over a slew of conspiracy theories he’s promoted, including his baseless claim that Covid-19 was “targeted to attack Caucasians and Black people,” as well as his assertion that mass shootings can be blamed on prescription drugs, including antidepressant medication Prozac. He switched his party affiliation to independent in October, a move that prompted pushback from Republicans and Democrats, over concerns his candidacy could take votes away from Biden and Trump, even if Kennedy finishes well behind them in November. Kennedy’s campaign has struggled in polls in a matchup with Biden and Trump, and failed to qualify for CNN’s first presidential poll late last month (candidates needed to receive at least 15% support in four credible national polls between March and June to appear in the debate). Still, Kennedy has managed to attract support from Latinos and young voters, two key Democratic blocs, according to a Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer poll conducted in May. That poll also found Kennedy’s support increases to 18% among voters ages 18 to 29, and 14% among Latino voters in swing states Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Chief Critics
At 70 years old, Kennedy is eight years younger than Trump (78) and 11 years younger than Biden (81), and could stand to make up lost ground to both candidates as Trump faces criticism following his guilty verdict on 34 felony counts in his New York hush money case, and as Democrats increasingly push Biden to drop his reelection campaign following his disastrous debate performance. An ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted after Trump’s conviction in late May found 49% of Americans think Trump should drop his campaign, including 52% of independents and 16% of Republicans. A post-conviction Morning Consult poll also found 54% of Americans either “somewhat” or “strongly” approve Trump’s guilty verdict, a conviction the former president repeatedly decried as a “witch hunt.” Biden, meanwhile, has faced heavy pushback from pundits, billionaire donors and some Democratic lawmakers in the wake of his lethargic debate performance, when Biden appeared to lose his train of thought and at times, speak incoherently, raising questions about his mental acuity and a possible mental or physical condition (Biden’s campaign denied speculation around Parkinson’s treatment). Biden claimed his poor performance was the result of extensive travel and a bad cold, though his commitment to the campaign has not stopped five House members and the editorial boards of several newspapers from calling on him to drop out of the race. A post-debate Harvard/Harris poll found nearly two-thirds of voters have doubts about Biden’s mental fitness, and 74% of respondents said Biden is too old to be president.
