By Biswajit Dhar

One of the more enduring images from the iconic film from the 1950s, Do Bigha Zameen, was its poster showing the family of a marginal farmer looking anxiously at the sky hoping that rains would save his tiny holding, their only source of livelihood, from being appropriated by the landlord.

Seven decades later, the importance of timely rains remains critical for the survival of the millions of small and marginal farmers in India, especially for those who are dependent on the kharif (summer) crops. Therefore, year after year, the progress of monsoon continues to be watched with much anxiety.

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In April, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had made favourable predictions about this year’s monsoon rains. It predicted that in the 2024 southwest monsoon season, rainfall will be 106% of the “long period average” of 87 cm, based on rainfall data during 1971-2020.

This scenario was based on the assessments made by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in March that the El Niño climate pattern occurring in the Pacific Ocean that adversely affects, among other things, rainfall in several regions including South Asia was at the end of its 2023-24 cycle. Further, the La Niña climate pattern bringing favourable weather was likely to take effect from July-August.

A more precise reading of the WMO assessment meant that India would experience favourable weather conditions, implying better rains, in the later phase of monsoon.

However, three months after the WMO’s assessment, it appears that the effect of El Niño has been slow to wear off. The onset of the monsoon has been delayed in large parts of the country.

The monsoon usually sets in around June 1 in the southern states and spreads nationwide by the first week of July. This allows farmers to plant the kharif crops, including the most important staple, rice, besides millets, cotton, maize, pulses, soya bean, and sugar cane.

This year, the monsoon arrived in Kerala two days early but its progress slowed resulting in insufficient coverage by mid-June. Consequently, the planting of the kharif crops was delayed.

In June, IMD’s assessment on the progress of the monsoon said that rainfall was “64.5 mm which was 20% less than its long period average (LPA) of 80.6 mm”. Most regions had moderate to high levels of rain deficiency, the worst affected being the Northwest region with 70% deficiency. These regions were not only extremely low on precipitation, but they also suffered from extreme heatwaves, making conditions worse for farmers to begin planting once the rains arrived. The states most affected by deficient rains account for more than a quarter of the total rice production in India and are also major producers of millets, soya bean, sugar cane, and pulses.

By early July, the situation changed almost completely with the spread of monsoon throughout the country resulting in two developments. First, the rainfall deficiency in the entire country had declined to 4%, and the Northwest region has a deficit of 21%. Secondly, the week ending July 3 saw excess rainfall of 32%, with the Northwest receiving an excess of 38%. Thus, if June brought fears for the major kharif crop due to insufficient rainfall, a month later there remain concerns arising from excess rainfall.

But even if the monsoon continues to play truant, adversely affecting the production of rice, two developments may help the government tide over short-term domestic rice supply constraints. One, the Food Corporation of India currently holds 50 million tonnes (mt) rice, which is nearly four-fold above the buffer of 13.5 mt for July1. Secondly, the government had imposed a ban on non-basmati rice exports in July 2023 to prevent domestic supply shortages and to keep prices in check.

However, at the same time, the government allowed limited exports to certain countries to meet their food security needs. According to data provided by the department of commerce, government of India, this caused the rice exports in 2023-24 to fall by nearly 26% (6 mt) as compared to a year before. Indications are that the export ban will continue in the current financial year as well.

Finally, one may ask why a large section of India’s farmers continue to depend on the monsoon. The reason is that irrigation facilities in the country remain significantly inadequate in several states more than five decades after the Green Revolution was introduced.

In 2019-20, the latest year for which data are available, 65% of rice production was under irrigation (shorturl.at/YUFtW). This figure is deceptive since there were considerable variations among states regarding the availability of irrigation facilities. The largest rice-producing state, West Bengal, has 51% of area under irrigation, while two other major rice-producing states, Chhattisgarh and Odisha, have 37% and 32% respectively.

The National Democratic Alliance government has been popularising the consumption of millets, but the major varieties of millets grown in India, jowar and bajra, have extremely low irrigation facilities. In 2019-20, only 11% of jowar production was under irrigation, while for bajra, it was a little higher at 15%.

The deficiency of irrigation facilities in the country is the result of inadequate infrastructure supporting agriculture. This is a consequence of decades of neglect. Over the decades, agriculture has received a progressively smaller share in the country’s overall investment. In the 1950s, agriculture’s share was nearly 25%, but four decades later the share had halved.

After 1991, the share of investment in agriculture has consistently remained in single digits. In 2021-22, the latest year for which this figure is available, agriculture’s share was below 6%.

Unless the government shows the political will to prioritise the development of agriculture by ensuring that irrigation facilities together with adequate drainage are provided, uncertainties of the monsoon will continue to adversely affect the economic well-being of India’s farmers.

The author is a Distinguished Professor at the Council for Social Development in New Delhi.

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