The good news is the revival of the southwest monsoon — after a week-long pause in June — which has covered the entire country ahead of schedule, boosting kharif sowing operations in the countryside. The fortunes of India’s agricultural sector, if not the economy, depend on the rhythms of the southwest monsoon. From below-normal rainfall last month, there is a likelihood of copious rainfall this month and the rest of the season till September. June and July are crucial months for sowing operations for kharif or summer season crops like paddy, coarse cereals, pulses, and soya bean. The India Meteorological Department has predicted above-normal rainfall of 106% of the long period average this year, with the second half being better than the first half. Normal means that rainfall from June to September is between 96 and 104% of the long period average of 868.6 mm.

All of this augurs well for kharif food grain production that has been targeted at 160 million tonnes (mt) in 2024-25 (July-June), up by 2.1% from 156.7 mt in 2023-24 according to the third advance estimates of crop production of the Union agricultural ministry. Kharif tidings so far are favourable with a brisk start to sowing operations. Although the latest sowing data have not been released, indications are that area under paddy, the most important kharif crop, was at the same level last year. Farmers are also responding to price signals. With higher minimum support prices than a year ago for pulses such as arhar (pigeon pea), urad ((black matpe), maize, and soya bean, farmers are increasingly preferring these crops this season. Sowing operations are expected to continue till the middle of August. Good rains have boosted sowing operations also for onion, tomato, and potato, prices of which have spiked of late. The kharif onion crop accounts for 30% of the total annual onion production and once this crop starts arriving in the market by end-October, prices are bound to significantly decline.

Above-normal rainfall not only boosts kharif production but also ensures sufficient moisture for the ensuing rabi season. This would also improve average water levels in the 150 major reservoirs of the country, which as of July 4 were 21% less than a year ago and 9.8% less than the decadal average. While the monsoon prospects so far are good, its behaviour has been highly erratic due to climate change. For normal or above-normal rainfall to translate into prosperity in the countryside, it should have a better spatial and temporal spread. However, predicting this is a daunting challenge even with sophisticated weather models. While the number of rainy days is declining, the incidence of very heavy and extremely heavy rainfall events — 115.6 to 204.4 mm and above 204.4 mm respectively — has been rising.

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The policy imperative must be to ensure that agriculture does not remain hostage to the monsoon’s vagaries. The need is to build more irrigation facilities to reduce monsoon dependence, especially for small and marginal farmers in peninsular India. This is perhaps less of a concern in the vanguard agrarian states of Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh which have access to canal irrigation. In fact, the share of irrigation in paddy-growing states like Punjab is as high as 99.7% but as low as 31.5% in Odisha. Above all, contingency plans must be to minimise distress among small and marginal farmers if the rains play truant.