Denver and other metro area counties are losing residents to other parts of Colorado and out of state, new census estimates show, as pandemic disruptions, rising housing costs and an aging population continue to scramble Colorado’s formerly robust growth patterns.
Like Denver, Jefferson and Arapahoe counties are seeing more people move out than move in, while Douglas County and sprawling Weld County have been big gainers in terms of net migration.
Thanks to natural growth from births outpacing deaths, the city and county of Denver still managed to grow in population from mid-2021 to mid-2022, partially rebounding from a decline the prior year. It reached 713,252 residents as of July 1, according to annual population estimates for counties released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau. That reflects an uptick of 1,929 residents compared to mid-2021, or 0.3% growth.
But since the 2020 census, which pegged population counts to April 1 of that year — right as the coronavirus pandemic was taking hold — Denver’s population is still down by nearly 2,300, updated census data show.
Before then, Denver had seen 15 years of uninterrupted population growth.
Two other counties still have estimated populations that trail their 2020 census counts: Jefferson County, which is still down by nearly 6,800 residents, and Boulder County, which is down by nearly 3,300.
“Within the state as a whole, the growth in 2021 and 2022 was slower than we had anticipated,” state demographer Elizabeth Garner said, pointing to the unpredictability that results from major events such as recessions and, in this case, a pandemic that’s still causing elevated death rates.
Colorado’s statewide population of 5.8 million grew by an estimated 28,629 residents, or 0.5%, between mid-2021 and mid-2022, census data show. Across the seven-county metro area, the population grew by 7,682, or a scant 0.24%, to nearly 3.3 million residents as of July 1.
People moving out are driving some declines
But there’s wide variance — driven largely by the factor of net migration.
The Census Bureau determines overall population change by combining natural change (the difference between births and deaths) with net migration, including both people who move into or out of the United States and people who relocate domestically, between counties — whether a move happens within a state or across state lines.
Between mid-2021 and mid-2022, Denver saw 3,428 more births than deaths. But it had a net out-migration by 1,219 people. The census calculation shows a net loss of 3,011 people who moved to other counties or out of state, partially offset by an influx of 1,792 people from international migration.
For Jefferson County, total net out-migration amounted to a loss of 4,583, while Arapahoe County saw a net loss of 3,083 residents from relocations across county lines. Even accounting for natural population change, those two were the only metro-area counties with slight overall population declines between mid-2021 and mid-2022 — by 4,783 residents, or 0.8%, in Jefferson, and by 749 residents, or 0.1%, in Arapahoe.
Meanwhile, Douglas County in the south metro grew by 6,163, or 1.7%, during the same period. And just outside the metro area, Weld County (home to Greeley) grew by 10,365, or 3.1%.
Weld had the top numerical growth in the state, while Douglas came in second, census data show. Not coincidentally, the two counties were also the top two, in the same order, for net in-migration.
Owing in part to new housing construction and more affordability for young families, they saw a combined net influx of 12,619 residents from movement across county lines, whether from in or out of state.
Other metro counties — Adams, Boulder and Broomfield — saw more modest positive net migration. All three also recorded growth in the new population estimates, ranging from 0.1% for Boulder to nearly 1% for Broomfield.
The Census Bureau said in a news release this week that pre-pandemic growth patterns were beginning to return in many urban areas.
But despite wide improvement from urban population losses during the first year of the pandemic, some cities are still seeing large numbers of people moving out, notably on the West Coast. San Francisco County, in the year ending July 1, lost a net 9,421 residents to relocations to other places in California and the United States. King County, Washington, home to Seattle, had a net loss of 16,035 residents from domestic relocations.
Colorado’s most populous county, ahead of Denver, remains El Paso County. The home of Colorado Springs had a population of 740,567 as of July 1, reflecting growth of 3,339, or 0.5%. Its population change attributable to net migration was minimal, with an estimated 552 more people moving in than out.
With aging workforce, potential for more growth
Garner, who has reviewed the new census data in depth, said metro counties that fared more poorly on migration stats shared something in common with a handful of mountain counties: Older residents and families with young children were more likely to leave than in previous years.
Other factors remain in flux. The new paradigm of recent years is that white-collar workers are more mobile due to remote work options, while housing affordability has increased as a problem.
But Garner is optimistic that stable growth will continue across Colorado.
“We are projecting faster growth (in coming years) — really on this idea that we’ve got job growth,” she said. “We need workers. We will attract those workers to the state.”
But she added: “The other side of that is that everyone in the country is competing for workers. We’re all dealing with the same challenge: that we’ve got these older adults aging out of the labor force. We’ve got fewer kiddos aging in. So it’s just tighter and more competitive.”
And housing affordability is likely to play a big role, too, Garner said, as Coloradans look for opportunities elsewhere — and outsiders gauge whether they can afford to move to metro Denver and other communities.
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