Denver Post sports writer Patrick Saunders with the latest installment of his Rockies Mailbag. Pose a Rockies — or MLB — related question for the Rockies Mailbag.
Patrick, I’ve read that the Rockies are going to try and sign outfielder Brando Nimmo, who grew up in Cheyenne. Is there any truth to that rumor?
— Brad, Westminster
Brad, I’m not sure where you read the “rumor.” Right now, that’s total speculation. I’ve talked to a number of people with the Rockies and around the league about Nimmo, and here’s what I’ve discovered:
• Nimmo would certainly be a good fit for the Rockies, who would love to land a left-handed hitter who can play center field and hit leadoff. He’s also the consummate teammate and is coming off a solid year with the Mets.
• He’s on the Rockies’ preliminary wish list but the competition is going to be intense if he actually leaves the Mets, who drafted him in the first round in 2011.
• Nimmo, 29, was the Mets’ longest-tenured position player and he’s very popular in New York. The Mets are interested in trying to hold on to him.
• Estimates that I’ve seen predict that Nimmo will land a five-year deal around $115 million-$120 million, although he might seek a longer deal.
Nimmo went to East High School in Cheyenne, but the Rockies won’t get any type of hometown discount. Scott Boras, after all, is Nimmo’s agent.
Patrick, hope you’re enjoying your offseason after that debacle of a season. What are your bold predictions for the Rox next season? Ezequiel Tovar is named rookie of the year? Kris Bryant stays healthy and returns to his 2016 MVP form? German Marquez, Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela find their rhythm and the Rockies earn a wild-card berth? And who do you have winning the Series?
— Mike, Denver
Hey Mike, I’ll answer your first question first because it’s easier. Before the 2022 season started, I picked the Astros to beat the Dodgers in the World Series. There is no reason to change now. Top to bottom, the Astros are the best team in the majors. The Phillies are a great story and got hot at the right time, but I’m picking the Astros to win the World Series in five games.
Now to dissect your optimism.
The Rockies remain at least one more season away from being a wild-card contender, so 2024 is much more realistic than ’23.
As for your predictions/questions:
• Tovar winning rookie of the year is a long shot. He’s talented and I expect him to be an impact player right away, but in their 30-year history, the Rockies have had only one player named rookie of the year. That was pitcher Jason Jennings in 2002. Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki was the runner-up to Ryan Braun in 2007, but Tulo should have won the award. Plus, Tovar is only 21 and he’ll have major growing pains as a rookie.
• I doubt Bryant, now 30, is ever going to equal his 2016 MVP season when he slashed .292./.385/.554 with 39 homers, 35 doubles and 102 RBIs. Still, if he can stay healthy, Bryant has a chance to be the Rockies’ best player but I don’t see him being an MVP candidate again.
• The pitching trio you mention also has a lot to prove, particularly Marquez, who finished 2022 with a 9-13 record and 5.00 ERA. The Rockies hope Senzatela can return from his torn ACL by May but I think that’s overly optimistic. For the Rockies to have any chance of being a playoff contender, they need to find at least one more legitimate starter during the offseason. And adding a center fielder who can hit from the left side would be nice, too.
Hi Patrick, I hope you’re having a great (although premature) offseason! Do you know if there are any plans to increase the size of the analytics department going into the 2023 season?
— Murph, Akron
I reached out to Brian Jones with your question. In August, Jones, the team’s video coordinator for the past 15 years, was promoted to director of research and development, increasing the department to six people.
Here’s what Jones told me: “Yes, we are expanding our department. We are currently hiring two new analysts. One will focus on player development and the other will focus mostly on pitching expertise in a multifaceted role. There will be more to come down the road.”
Two new hires would increase the Rockies’ analytics team to eight people.
What are your thoughts on owner Dick Monfort’s letter, Patrick? Actual criticism that could see results or just pandering to the base so that he can sell tickets?
— Mark, Arvada
Obviously, the No. 1 reason to write the letter is to try and retain the Rockies’ base of season ticket holders. After this past season, I’m sure longtime fans are restless. Not only did the team lose 94 games and finish last in the National League West, but the product on the field was boring. I don’t think anybody can deny that.
“Our expectations were high going into the 2022 season, but unfortunately, we did not meet those expectations,” Monfort wrote. “It has now been four years since our last postseason appearance, and this is not acceptable. … Excuses serve no purpose, and we are committed to devoting all our efforts this off-season to improving this team for 2023.”
At first blush, the letter is just a carbon copy from other ones Monfort has sent through the years, but there was a little bit of a different tone this time around. Monfort does seem frustrated and a little bit ticked off. I suppose that’s a good thing, but if the Rockies stand pat this offseason and if they don’t make significant improvements in 2023, Monfort’s words will ring hollow.
Greetings Patrick. Watching these playoffs, the winning teams offer a blend of tough-minded pitching and situational hitting, neither greater than the other. The Padres and Phillies proved that a good “team” that gets hot wins, not just one “individual.” Are there any of the Rockies who could make the rosters of the final four teams in either league besides Daniel Bard?
— Robert Emmerling, Limon
Good question, Robert. The final four teams were, of course, the Astros, Yankees, Phillies and Padres. There are very few Rockies players that could crack the starting lineup of any of those teams, although I think C.J. Cron would be an upgrade at first base for both the Padres and the Astros.
I could also see left-hander Kyle Freeland making the back end of the rotation with those teams, and second baseman Brendan Rodgers would certainly make the major-league roster.
Hey Patrick, I loved Nolan Arenado when he was a Rockie and, of course, I would rather have him on the team than not. And time will tell if what we received in return for him will ever come close to his value.
But … in his years with the Rockies, it never seemed like he was the type of player who did, or could, carry the team down the stretch, and he never came through in the playoffs. He also never seemed to step up at the All-Star Game. He looked to be repeating that behavior with the Cardinals with his fade during the last month of the season. Is Nolan just too high-strung for big-game situations? He says he left to win but part of the blame, both here and in St. Louis, seems to lie with Nolan.
— Philip Good, Denver
Philip, there is no getting around the fact that Arenado has been a no-show in the playoffs. In eight career postseason games, he’s hit .152 (5-for-33) with one home run, three RBIs and a .385 OPS. Eight games is a small sample size, but I think you’re right when you intimate that Arenado appears to start pressing during playoff games. But I don’t think he’s too “high-strung.” His intensity is engrained in his personality and one of the things that makes him a future Hall of Famer. I do believe that if he ever gets a chance to taste some personal postseason success, he’ll be dangerous in the playoffs. But he’s got to get over the hump.
Let me add that Arenado forced his way out of Colorado because he wanted a chance to win, so it’s certainly fair that he’s under intense scrutiny in St. Louis. It comes with the territory.
