Game 7 of a Stanley Cup playoff series — it doesn’t get much more exciting than this.
Tonight at 7, the Avalanche and Sharks will play at the SAP Center in San Jose with the winner advancing to the Western Conference Finals to meet the St. Louis Blues. Heading into tonight’s game, we asked The Denver Post’s Mike Chambers and Kyle Fredrickson, and San Jose Mercury News reporter Curtis Pashelka some burning questions about these teams and the matchup.
Avalanche coach Jared Bednar has experimented a lot with his lines in this series, especially the top line of Nathan MacKinnon, Gabe Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen. Whenever Bednar splits up this line, he inevitably brings them back together in the same game. What have the Sharks done so well to disrupt the MGM line, and how should the Avs play it in Game 7?
Kyle Fredrickson: Colorado relied on its elite speed to bum rush Calgary into creating scoring chances. But San Jose’s physicality in the neutral zone closed up those gaps — especially when the Avs top line got sloppy with the puck. Bednar is smart to keep this group together in Game 7, because when they do click, few teams can halt the attack. Mackinnon must be the catalyst.
Mike Chambers: Bednar won’t start the MGM guys together and perhaps he will throw the Sharks off by separating MacKinnon and Landeskog, who have played together all series. MacKinnon and Rantanen led the league in playoff scoring before the Sharks figured out how to contain them for Games 5 and 6. This is clearly a huge subject for Bednar because he can’t expect J.T. Compher and Tyson Jost repeat their performances from Game 6.
Curtis Pashelka: The Sharks have tried to defend MacKinnon, Landeskog and Rantanen the same way they’ve tried to slow down other terrific lines of their ilk: Make them spend shifts defending in their own zone, break out well, take care of the puck through the neutral zone and not feed their rush with turnovers. Marc-Edouard Vlasic has played a big role, but forwards like Logan Couture and Timo Meier have done their part as well as the Sharks have preached defending that line as a five-man unit. Those three players were shut out in Game 5 and each was a minus-3 through three periods in Game 6. Despite that, I think Bednar sticks with what he opted to do for Game 6 — start the MGM line together and stay with 11 forwards and seven defensemen. If nothing else, it forces Pete DeBoer to use his shutdown d-pair and the Couture line more often, perhaps opening up opportunities for the Avalanche’s second and third lines to create more chances, like we saw in Game 6.
Colorado peppered Calgary in the opening round, routinely putting up 50 shots per game. What has San Jose done to limit how many shots Martin Jones has to defend?
KF: The veteran savvy of San Jose to poke, prick and prod any Avalanche player who dares post up in front of the net has not allowed for nearly as many second-chance points in comparison to the Flames series. The Avs have been hesitant shooters on the power play, as well, with a need for more crisp decision making at the point of attack. Capitalizing off turnovers in the forecheck presents Colorado’s best opportunity to score.
MC: Seems like San Jose is better at slowing Colorado through the neutral zone and is limiting turnovers in its D zone. The Avs generally did what they wanted against the Flames but the Sharks are clearly a better team.
CP: I think the Sharks have done a much better job with their forecheck in this series than Calgary did in the first round. The Sharks have the personnel to cycle the puck and win battles down low, whereas the Flames might have been lacking in that department. The Sharks have done a decent job blocking shots, although I think their best work has come by getting sticks in passing lanes. The Sharks have also allowed just 17 shots on goal in 20 Avalanche power play opportunities this series. The Avalanche had that many power play shots in one game in the first round — Game 3 — when they boat-raced the Flames 6-2.
Six games into this series, who has been the MVP and why?
KF: I’ll nominate Avs goalie Philipp Grubauer. He gets the nod over Sharks netminder Martin Jones, if only for that 32-shot shutout Grubauer posted in Game 4. They’ve both been phenomenal. Grubauer sports a .928 save percentage, a 2.23 goals-against average and made a plethora of critical stops in key moments. Colorado doesn’t make it this far without him.
MC: Brent Burns for San Jose. Tyson Barrie, J.T. Compher or Grubauer for the Avs.
CP: For me, it’s Couture. He’s had to take on a bigger role in Pavelski’s absence, has six points in six games and is always matched up on MacKinnon. The Sharks are 7-3 this postseason when he has at least one point. His faceoff percentage has been up and down, but with the possible exception of Tomas Hertl, no San Jose forward has been asked to do more.
Are there any players in this series who haven’t pulled enough weight?
KF: Avalanche defenseman Tyson Barrie exploded for two goals and an assist in Game 2. He has not tallied a point since. The Cake Makar experiment requires adjustment from everyone, but Colorado needs Barrie to provide steady leadership in addition to offensive zone playmaking.
MC: Evander Kane for the Sharks and Derick Brassard for Colorado.
CP: Evander Kane just hasn’t been consistent enough. I thought he and Hertl were good in Game 2 and again in Game 5. But he’s been held without a point in four straight games. He might be playing hurt right now, although we can’t say for sure. He’s shooting the puck about as often as he did in the regular season, just not creating enough quality looks. The Sharks need more from one of their 30-goal scorers.
If you were building the roster of an expansion franchise and got your pick of one of the two (based on skill set alone, not age), who would you pick, Nathan MacKinnon or Brent Burns?
KF: They say defense wins championships. Those people need to watch MacKinnon accelerate on the break and tantalize with otherworldly stick maneuvering. MacKinnon is a generational talent whose skill set is uniquely rare. For all Burns’ dominance, I’d take MacKinnon in a tight decision.
MC: That’s like choosing between MacKinnon or Seth Jones in the 2013 draft. MacKinnon was the right choice at the time but Jones is certainly the next Burns.
CP: Both are such special talents, but I think you have to start with a centerman and build down the middle. No. 1 centers such as MacKinnon are so rare that I think you’d have to take him first. A Norris Trophy finalist three of the last four years, Burns is still in his prime now, but I think we have yet to see the best of MacKinnon. It’s scary how good he could become with more experience.
If Joe Pavelski is able to return from his head injury, what effect will the Sharks’ captain have on a Game 7?
KF: It should be a legitimate cause for concern for Colorado. Pavelski is a constant scoring threat who brings leadership to the Sharks. Although it’s worth questioning whether the gap in ice time will impact his immediate effectiveness.
MC: Pavelski would unquestionably provide a spark emotionally but it’s tough for anyone to return from a six-game absence — particularly if he was shut down during that time — and be effective. Mikko Rantanen missed eight games for the Avs heading into the playoffs and he struggled in Game 1 against the Calgary Flames.
CP: He’ll provide an emotional lift, no doubt, and should help a power play that’s just 2-for-17 this round. He’s also right-handed shot, and should help with right side draws in all situations. It won’t be easy for him to jump into a playoff series after missing six games, and he doesn’t have the luxury of easing into things. That said, I would anticipate that he’ll be back on Couture’s line with Meier, Gus Nyquist will slide back to the third line with Tomas Hertl and Evander Kane, and Joonas Donskoi will be back on the fourth line. It just adds to the Sharks’ overall depth.
Both teams have had outstanding goalie play at times in this series despite some very uneven stretches throughout the season (Jones on the Sharks side and Varlamov before the Avs switch). Does one team appear to have an advantage at the game’s most critical position?
KF: As noted previously, with Grubauer my series MVP, this race is extremely close. One thing to consider is the strength of San Jose’s defense and how it undoubtedly strengthens Jones’ comfort level. Grubauer has often been left to make circus saves with little backup.
MC: I’d say Grubauer has the edge but Martin is at home so it’s about even.
CP: I’m not sure there’s a big advantage either way. Grubauer has had to face more shots on the whole, but I think Jones has had to face more Grade A chances against. The biggest thing for either goalie will be how their teammates can defend in front of them. In Game 6, the Sharks blew assignments in their own end or made mistakes on odd-man rushes (Tyson Jost’s goal a prime example). I think the Avalanche did a good job overall of getting back above the puck and taking away space from shooters in Game 6. I can’t imagine Game 7 will be high scoring. Maybe four goals, five at the most.
The Sharks have a roster filled with veterans like Joe Thornton who might be getting their final shot at a Stanley Cup. The Avalanche’s roster is all about youth and the promise of a better tomorrow. Which side is feeling the most pressure to win Game 7 and who ultimately prevails?
KF: No team in this series has won back-to-back games and the Sharks have the benefit of home-ice advantage. That puts all the pressure on San Jose to do what is expected. But I’ll stick with my pre-series prediction: Colorado in seven. The Avalanche has all the ingredients of a title contender for years to come. Consider a win Wednesday night as the next major building block.
MC: San Jose has way more pressure, with the Thornton factor and playing at home. The Avs should be loose. But I can’t pick the Sharks to lose at home.
CP: I don’t think there’s any question there’s more pressure on the Sharks, who started the season with Cup aspirations after the blockbuster deal to get Erik Karlsson. The Sharks and Karlsson could reach an agreement on a long-term deal, sure, but if they don’t, when’s the next time they’ll have two Norris Trophy winners on their blue line? With the way the playoffs have unfolded (Tampa Bay, Winnipeg, Washington, Nashville, Calgary all eliminated), it can be argued there’s never been a more ideal time than now for the Sharks to finally win it all. San Jose will win Game 7, but the question is, after two grueling series to start the playoffs, how much will it have left for the conference final?
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