Why Phillies should resist trading for a top hitter like Luis Robert. It's not the money

It's one thing to want the Phillies to acquire a top hitter who plays center or left field, whether it's the White Sox's Luis Robert, the Marlins' Jazz Chisholm Jr., or the Rays' Randy Arozarena.

That way, good defenders but weak hitters in Johan Rojas or Cristian Pache don't have to.

But it's quite another to pull off such a deal. And this is the Phillies' dilemma with the July 30 MLB trade deadline less than a month away.

No doubt, Robert, who hit 38 homers last season and is healthy again after missing two months with a hip injury, can help an already powerful Phillies lineup. So can Chisholm, who has the combination of speed (14 stolen bases) and power (10 homers) that Rojas, Pache, Whit Merrifield − and Brandon Marsh against lefties − have not provided.

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Arozarena could be more of a risk since he's in the throes of a miserable season. He still has 11 homers and 10 stolen bases despite his .196 batting average.

If the Phillies, an MLB best 56-29 after their 6-4 win over the Cubs on Tuesday night, have a weakness, it’s in the outfield. They are ranked 23rd in outfield OPS at .662, according to FanGraphs.

And that deficiency has only been exacerbated with the recent injuries to first baseman Bryce Harper and designated hitter Kyle Schwarber. Both are expected back from the injured list when eligible on July 9 or shortly thereafter.

And catcher J.T. Realmuto, out since June 10 to have knee surgery, is expected back sometime after the All-Star break that begins in two weeks.

So it's not like the Phillies are desperate.

Then again, the Phillies are poised to win now. Or so it seems. Core players like Harper, Schwarber, Realmuto, Trea Turner, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are all in their 30s, and all but Schwarber ($79 million) have salaries worth $100 million or more.

But there's one thing that could prevent the Phillies from making such a deal for another hitter − and it's not money.

Sure, it’s easy to infer that the Phillies' window for winning is based upon the dwindling prime years left for players as they age into their mid and late 30s.

That, however, doesn't tell the entire story.

That’s because the Phillies' payroll this season is $246 million, according to spotrac.com, which ranks fourth in MLB. They're an estimated $10 million above the luxury tax threshold.

That would indicate that the Phillies would be willing to add payroll by trading for someone like Robert ($12.5 million this year, then $55 million from 2025-27), Chisholm ($2.6 million this year, with two arbitration years left and hefty raises expected) or Arozarena ($8.1 million, two arbitration years left).

But the Phillies see themselves as multi-year contenders, and that means into the next decade.

And the Phillies do have a nice cache of younger players under team control for the next few years like pitcher Ranger Suarez, third baseman Alec Bohm and second baseman Bryson Stott.

Like Robert, Chisholm and Arozarena, they, too, will get much more expensive over the coming years. The Phillies already showed that by signing Cristopher Sanchez, who came into this season as the No. 4 or 5 starter, to a four-year, $22.5 million deal.

That's not even a starting point for Suarez, Bohm and Stott.

That means there needs to be another tier of players coming up through the minor leagues. And those are precisely the players the White Sox, Marlins and Rays would ask for in return.

That there are much fewer teams selling than buying almost guarantees that those teams will get close to what they're asking for.

So the Phillies need phenom pitcher Andrew Painter, who's out this season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, to eventually become the ace that Wheeler currently is, along with Mick Abel, who's 22 years old, but struggling with a 6.79 ERA at Triple-A this season.

It also means that shortstop Aidan Miller needs to eventually succeed Turner, and outfielder Justin Crawford needs to eventually become a star. Both are at High-A Jersey Shore, and both will be playing at the MLB Futures Game next Sunday to kick off the All-Star week.

All of those players will be under team control salary-wise into the 2030s, just as the current over-30 stars are reaching the end of their careers.

It's not a revolutionary formula. The Braves, for example, have done this during their current six-year run of NL East championships that the Phillies are on the verge of ending.

To show how the Braves have turned over their roster while still winning, they have just two regular position players left from the first of their NL East titles in 2018 − Ronald Acuna Jr., who's out for the season with a torn ACL, and Ozzie Albies. There is no one left from the 2018 starting rotation as pitchers like Spencer Strider (Tommy John surgery) and Max Fried hadn’t established themselves in the big leagues.

It's true that the Braves have won just one World Series in those six years, and were eliminated by the Phillies in each of the past two seasons in the NLDS despite winning 101 games each season.

But the point is the Braves have been perennial contenders. That is also true this year despite their season-ending injuries to Acuna and Strider. Both players should be around for the next few years at least, along with Fried, Albies, Austin Riley and others.

This is what the Phillies are striving for, too. And that, more than the money, makes the cost for players like Robert, Chisholm and Arozarena too steep.

Certainly, the Phillies can make minor deals to add bullpen and/or bench depth before the trade deadline. That might not seem as sexy as getting another top hitter, but it's much more realistic in the short term and the long term.

Contact Martin Frank at mfrank@delawareonline.com. Follow on X @Mfranknfl.