Supercomputer predicts who is most likely to crash out of Euro 2024 early with current holders Italy among the tournament favourites in the most danger - but should England fans be concerned?

  • The European Championships often throw up some surprise results
  • Ahead of Euro 2024 Opta's Supercomputer has made some group stage predictions
  • LISTEN to It’s All Kicking Off! Why Euro 2024 could give us an ‘old school’ tournament once again

 With the European Championships set to get underway, fans are well into the process of making their predictions for the tournament.

While many will be looking ahead to who will be lifting the tropy come Sunday, 14 July, there may be cause for concern in the short-term.

Before teams can even begin to think about winning the whole thing they must navigate the group stages.


And as we have seen in tournaments in the past, it is never a certainty for any nation that they will qualify for the knockout stages no matter their pedigree.

We may be hard pressed to label any singular group 'the group of death' at this year's tournament, there are certainly banana skins for all of Europe's top nations.

Italy are among the favourites in the tournament but are also tipped to be in a spot of bother in the group stages

Italy are among the favourites in the tournament but are also tipped to be in a spot of bother in the group stages

Likewise the Netherlands are also considered to be one of the bigger nations to be in danger of not making it through to the knockout stages

Likewise the Netherlands are also considered to be one of the bigger nations to be in danger of not making it through to the knockout stages

Certainly a group containing Spain, Croatia and Italy poses the most difficult group but Albania are no slouches. They conceded just four goals in their eight qualifying games.

Their impresssive defensive efforts saw them top their group and surely sets them up to be opposition in Group B.

And according to the Opta supercomputer, that makes the group among the most likely to see one of the bigger nations crash out in the group stage.

Looking at the statistics, the Azzurri have a 13.6 per cent chance of finishing bottom of the group and a 24.9 per cent chance of finishing third and suffering an anxious wait to see if they will reach the knockout stage.

England are considered the biggest favourites to make it out of the group stages

England are considered the biggest favourites to make it out of the group stages

France are among a few nations given just a single digit percentage chance of finishing bottom of their group

France are among a few nations given just a single digit percentage chance of finishing bottom of their group

Similarly Portugal are predicted to make it through the opening phase of the tournament with little fuss

Similarly Portugal are predicted to make it through the opening phase of the tournament with little fuss

Similarly, the stats boffins have given the Netherlands cause for concern during the opening phase of this year's tournament.

Looking at Group D, fans would perhaps expect a bit of a walk in the park for both France and Netherlands with Poland and Austria the other two nations in play.

Poland were far from impressive during their qualifying, coming through a play-off to make this summer's tournament. And their preparations hit another massive snag when Robert Lewandowski was ruled out of their opening game.

Austria impressed, losing just one game on their way to Euro 2024 and it seems that has given the Opta Supercomputer some optimism for Ralf Rangnick's side.

The Netherlands find themselves with more of a chance of finishing third (25.5 percent) than they do of finishing second (24 per cent) with a 16.6 per cent chance of finishing bottom.

There are no such dramas forecast for England's group stage as they take on Denmark, Serbia and Slovenia.

Opta's stats have given England a 67.2 per cent chance of topping Group C, indeed the highest percentage chance of any side finishing first. That is around 8 per cent better than Porgual who have been given a 59.5 per cent chance in Group F.

Gareth Southgate's side have been given a 21.3 per cent chance of finishing second and just a 3.3 per cent chance of propping up Group C.

They are just one of six nations who are given a single digit percentage when looking at their likelihood to finsh bottom,

Portugal, Belgium, France, Spain and Germany are the others who have been given very little reason to worry about their ability to progress to the next stages of the competition.