Trump still leads Biden after hush money verdict, poll reveals
After Donald Trump 's guilty verdict, the former president still leads President Joe Biden by just one point in a hypothetical 2024 match-up. Voters are approaching differently how Trump's hush money trial and Hunter Biden 's firearms trial will impact their decision in November.
More than two-thirds (64 percent) of Americans polled in a new Emerson College survey say the trial against Biden's son has no impact on their vote this fall – while only 40 percent say Trump's conviction won't affect how they cast their ballot. Still, more than a quarter (27 percent) say that Trump's guilty verdict on 34 felony counts actually makes them more likely to want to vote for him for president. And 33 percent say it makes them less likely to support him.
On June 30, the jury in Trump's Manhattan hush-money trial convicted the former president on all counts he was charged with in relation to the falsification of business records for the payment to Stormy Daniels to keep quiet about their affair ahead of the 2016 presidential election. Just days after the conviction, the trial kicked off for the three federal felony charges against Hunter Biden, 54, for lying about his drug addiction on a questionnaire form when purchasing a firearm in Delaware in 2018.
Trump's sentencing is set for July 11, which is just days before he would become the official GOP presidential nominee at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin . Forty percent of voters say they think that Trump should get some sort of prison time for his crimes, and 25 percent say he should have to pay a fine. The remaining 15 percent think he should receive probation.
It's unclear exactly how sentencing will impact Trump's ability to campaign for president. If given probation, he could be restricted to campaigning at his Florida complex at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach. The Emerson poll was conducted nationwide among 1,000 registered voters on June 4 and 5 – both after the Trump guilty verdict and Hunter's trial kicking off on Monday.
Twelve percent of voters said the trial against the president's son would make them more likely to support Biden's reelection, while double that (24 percent) say it makes them less likely to want to vote for the incumbent. The back-to-back trials really underscores how much of an impact the legal troubles facing both the current and former presidents play a role in November's election.
In June last year, the Emerson College polling showed Trump trailing Biden by a few percentage points – but a year later, the former president is ahead 46 percent to 45 percent.
Since October, the Republican candidate has pulled ahead of his Democratic competitor in the poll's tracking. The two are set for their first head-to-head debate of the 2024 election on June 27, hosted by CNN in Atlanta, Georgia. While another debate is scheduled for this fall, it's unclear if Trump will be able to participate after his sentencing.
A former Clinton political strategist claims the debate will be the time for Biden, 81, to prove he has not declined cognitively and deserve another four years in office.
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