Jefferies says shares of this lesser known global delivery firm are set to soar over 125%

Published Sun, Jul 7 20247:21 PM EDT

Amala Balakrishner @in/amala-balakrishner @_amalabk

Shares of Dutch food delivery marketplace Just Eat Takeaway.com could more than double over the next 12 months, according to Jefferies analysts. In a June 26 research report, the U.S. investment bank set a target price of 25.5 euros ($27.62) on the stock — giving it potential upside of 125.9% from its closing price of 11.29 euros on July 4. Jefferies remains bullish on Just Eat, even as the company's U.S. business Grubhub has faced the pressures of government price controls imposed on restaurants since the Covid-19 pandemic. While price controls are intended to "enable restaurants to access delivery, marketing and other services at artificially low prices," the actual impact is "far different," Grubhub wrote in an Aug 2022 blogpost . "Price controls create strict limits on what local restaurants can do to promote their business, find new diners, engage regular customers and send more orders out their doors," it said. Last September, the U.S.' Federal Court, upheld the right for GrubHub, as well as platforms like Uber and DoorDash , to sue the city of New York over the fee caps, Jefferies's analyst Giles Throne noted — adding that new policies could come in place. "The fee cap question has mired the long-signalled partial or full sale of Grubhub; a resolution of the issue should create momentum around that potentially highly equity positive asset sale," he wrote. Throne holds that there are still "pockets" of high quality gross market value within the business, particularly in New York City, where he assesses that the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization are being "mis-priced." Just Eat expects a $100 million EBITDA impact from the amending of the fee caps, the Jefferies note reported. This, Throne said, is "highly material to earnings," given that the company's adjusted EBITDA guidance for full-year 2024 is around 450 million euros. TKWY-NL YTD mountain Year-to-date share movement in Just Eat Takeaway The spotlight fell on food delivery platforms like Just Eat during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, when countries around the world imposed social distancing restrictions that stifled dining at restaurant venues. The easing of those restrictions, coupled with mounting food inflation, has pushed some players to exit markets they do not dominate. Just Eat has felt the pinch, with its total orders dropping to 214.2 million in the first quarter, down from 227.8 million in the same period of last year. Shares of the delivery firm have also moved away from their high during the Covid pandemic, and are now down 18.1% year-to-date and 22.5% in the last 12 months. Just Eat is listed on Euronext Amsterdam and the London Stock Exchange. It also trades as an American Depository Receipt in the U.S. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.