DETROIT – Most of us knew the Detroit Tigers probably weren’t going to make the playoffs this season, but can’t the race at least last until the summer?
It’s May 21, and the Tigers are in fourth place and already 7.5 games back in the American League Central Division.
It feels an awful lot like last season (the Tigers were 3.5 back at this point). And 2021 (8.5 back). The Tigers were competitive both years, but fans never truly got to enjoy that sweet taste of a late-summer postseason push.
Do we really have to spend all of July talking about what the Tigers can get for Jack Flaherty? Or whether they should move Tarik Skubal?
There are still over 100 games to play, so the race is far from over. But let’s be honest: The Tigers aren’t exactly built for a comeback.
AL Central race
Since ripping off five straight wins to start the season, the Tigers have only mustered one three-game winning streak. They’ve won back-to-back games just four other times in the last of six weeks.
That’s not going to get the job done.
It’s one thing to scratch and claw your way to a .500 record, but it’s another matter entirely to string enough victories together to erase a massive deficit.
What’s worse: The Tigers aren’t just chasing one team.
Cleveland leads the AL Central and has a 7.5-game lead over the Tigers. But the Royals are only 1.5 back, leading Detroit by six games.
Those two teams have outscored their opponents by 61 and 60 runs this season, while the Tigers own a much more modest run differential of +12. That suggests the wide gap is justified.
It’s frustrating because the Tigers were a trendy pick to compete with the Twins for the AL Central crown, but instead, it’s two other teams who seem to be having all the fun.
Wildcard race
I don’t think Tigers fans should pay much attention to the wildcard race this summer.
In addition to the Guardians and Royals, there are too many teams in the East and West with more talent than the Tigers.
The Yankees and Orioles are off to torrid starts in the East, and the Rays, Red Sox, and Blue Jays could all factor into the wildcard discussion.
Seattle has an early lead in the West, but the Astros are coming around and the Rangers are coming off a World Series title. I don’t expect the Tigers to finish ahead of any of those teams.
It took 89 wins to earn the third wildcard spot last season, and the Tigers aren’t trending toward that range. It feels like they’re going to win between 78 and 84 games.
The path to a playoff spot was always going to require a weak AL Central, but unfortunately, the division has turned out to be much stronger than expected.
How can this turn around?
The Tigers have a playoff-caliber pitching staff. Tarik, Jack, and Reese Olson make up a strong front-line trio, while Casey Mize and Matt Manning aren’t bad back-end starters.
The bullpen has also been solid, even though it’s clearly not the elite group we saw flashes of early in the season.
So any drastic improvement is going to have to come from the offense.
Maybe Spencer Torkelson is ready to break out -- he’s got three homers in the last eight games after going without one for his first 37. If he turns back into 2023 Spencer Torkelson, the lineup will look completely different.
Colt Keith had four hits Friday and three more hits Monday, so he might be finding his footing at the MLB level. That would be a major boost, and one that the Tigers were counting on coming into the season.
If Riley Greene and Mark Canha can be more consistent, and some of those younger players -- Torkelson, Keith, Kerry Carpenter, Wenceel Perez -- come around, the Tigers could generate enough offense to get back in the race.
But in the meantime, they can’t dig themselves any deeper.
Playoff drought
No fan base has waited longer than Detroit to see playoff baseball. Only the Tigers and the Angels have missed each of the last nine postseasons.
Unfortunately, most of that nine-year drought was spent so far out of the race that there was never any hope. And maybe that’s why this 7.5-game deficit feels so hopeless.
The Tigers were always likely to be a .500ish team this season, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to cut it.
There’s a danger the rest of the AL Central has passed them by.