The fallout from President Biden’s poor debate performance against former President Donald Trump continued this week with a recent report showing that six states in the Electoral College have shifted in Trump’s favor.
The Cook Political Report released on Tuesday showed that three states — Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada — have moved from “toss-up” to “lean Republican” while two other states — Minnesota and New Hampshire — have moved from “likely” to “lean Democrat.” Also, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District moved from “likely” to “lean Democrat.”
Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report said the Electoral Map shows that Trump has a “clear advantage” over Biden.
“The notion that the presidential [race] is a Toss Up was a stretch even before the debate,” Wasserman said on X. “Today, Trump has a clear advantage over Biden and a much more plausible path to 270 Electoral votes.”
The notion that the presidential is a Toss Up was a stretch even before the debate. Today, Trump has a clear advantage over Biden and a much more plausible path to 270 Electoral votes.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) July 9, 2024
Amy Walter, Editor-in-Chief for Cook Political Report, said that Washington insiders have expressed hope that the bad poll numbers will push Biden into announcing his exit from the ticket.
“Insiders we spoke with over the weekend said they expected a ‘deluge’ of Democratic congressional defections by Monday,” Walter said. “As of Tuesday morning, those desertions have amounted to no more than a trickle. Even so, plenty of nervous down-ballot Democrats and donors are hoping that team Biden, confronted with worsening poll numbers and an aggressively antagonistic press corps, will see the writing on the wall and gracefully announce his exit from the contest. That possibility looks remote as of this writing.”
“We can’t wave away the uncertainty of this moment, but we can try to soberly assess where things stand today, and where they are likely to go from here,” Walter added.
The report also showed that Trump has over a “3-point lead in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada and Biden has less than a percentage point lead in Wisconsin and Michigan,” per the Washington Examiner, while Trump has a 0.7-point lead in Pennsylvania. Walter said that two-point shift in the race could be monumental.
“For example, if Trump were to win the national popular vote by three points, it would be a seven-point improvement from his 2020 showing,” Walter said. “In other words, any state or district that Biden carried by eight points or less would be competitive.”
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